Yıl 2019, Cilt 03 , Sayı 1, Sayfalar 26 - 38 2019-08-31

Estimating Risk Pressure Factor (RPF) with Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to Locate Search and Rescue (SAR) Team Station.

İrfan MACİT [1]


Earthquake is one of the natural disaster types that suddenly breaks regular human life. Rescue activities in disasters are one of the most critical stages of modern disaster management. This management stage, as mentioned earlier, includes all the activities that need to be done after the disaster. Search And Rescue (SAR) teams perform one of these most critical activities after the earthquake post-disaster period. Search and rescue teams that will rescue and relief after a disaster are selected according to the criteria selected. Location layout selection problems are NP-Hard, and obtaining hard results is in the class of these problems. One of these criteria is the Risk Pressure Factor (RPF) used in determining the priorities of the risk areas. Determining the level of risk level is very difficult and also these are difficult to predict. In this study, it is aimed to estimate this parametric value by using an artificial neural network (ANN) method which is applied in many fields. And then in this study, a prediction model was constructed by using back propagation method which is a suitable propagation method in ANN method and results are obtained from the MATLAB program. The resulting risk-pressure factor (RPF) value can be used as a parameter in the proposed mathematical model. As a result of the study, the missing parameter of the mathematical model will be found in the estimation of a parameter belonging to the proposed mathematical model.

Artificial Neural Network, Mathematical Modelling, Risk Factor Prediction
  • [1] J.A.F. van Loenhout, J.G. Cuesta, J.E. Abello, J.M. Isiderio, M.L. de Lara-Banquesio, D. Guha-Sapir, The impact of Typhoon Haiyan on admissions in two hospitals in Eastern Visayas, Philippines, PLoS One. 13 (2018). doi:ARTN e0191516 10.1371/journal.pone.0191516.[2] D. Guha-Sapir, F. Vos, R. Below, S. Ponserre, Annual disaster statistical review 2011: the numbers and trends, Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), 2012. internal-pdf://97.234.167.192/Guha-Sapir-2012-Annual disaster statistical re.pdf.[3] R. Below, P. Wallemacq, Annual Disaster Statistical Review 2017, Université Catholique de Louvain, Belgium, 2018.[4] Y. Lixin, G. Lingling, Z. Dong, Z. Junxue, G. Zhanwu, An analysis on disasters management system in China, Nat. Hazards. 60 (2011) 295–309. doi:10.1007/s11069-011-0011-6.[5] S.H. Owen, M.S. Daskin, Strategic facility location: A review, Eur. J. Oper. Res. 111 (1998) 423–447.[6] W.D. Barfield, S.E. Krug, R.K. Kanter, M. Gausche-Hill, M.D. Brantley, S. Chung, N. Kissoon, T.F.P.E.M. C, Neonatal and pediatric regionalized systems in pediatric emergency mass critical care, Pediatr. Crit. Care Med. 12 (2011) S128–S134. doi:10.1097/PCC.0b013e318234a723.[7] M.A. Dolan, J.A. Fein, C.P.E. Med, Technical Report-Pediatric and Adolescent Mental Health Emergencies in the Emergency Medical Services System, Pediatrics. 127 (2011) E1356–E1366. doi:10.1542/peds.2011-0522.[8] G.A. Jacquet, M. Foran, S. Bartels, T.K. Becker, E.D. Schroeder, H.C. Duber, E. Goldberg, H. Cockrell, A.C. Levine, G.E.M. Literature, Global Emergency Medicine: A Review of the Literature From 2012, Acad. Emerg. Med. 20 (2013) 835–843. doi:10.1111/acem.12173.[9] A.C. Levine, J. Becker, S. Lippert, S. Rosborough, K. Arnold, E.I.E.M. Literature, International emergency medicine: A review of the literature from 2007, Acad. Emerg. Med. 15 (2008) 860–865. doi:10.1111/j.1553-2712.2008.00222.x.[10] T. Rebmann, B. Coll, 2009 APIC Emergency Preparedness C, Infection prevention in points of dispensing, Am. J. Infect. Control. 37 (2009) 695–702. doi:10.1016/j.ajic.2009.09.001.[11] S.E. Krug, T. Bojko, M.A. Dolan, K. Frush, P. O’Malley, R. Sapien, K.N. Shaw, J. Shook, P. Sirbaugh, L. Yamamoto, J. Ball, S.E. Role, K. Brown, K. Bullock, D. Kavanaugh, T. Turgel, S.E. Mace, D.W. Tuggle, S. Tellez, S.E. Mace, B.H. Bauman, I.A. Barata, J.M. Baren, L.S. Benjamin, K. Brown, L.A. Brown, J.H. Finkler, R.D. Goldman, P.L. Hendry, M.I. Herman, D.A. Hernandez, C. Hewling, M.A. Hostetler, R.W. Johnson, N.E. Schamban, G.R. Schwartz, G.Q. Sharieff, S.E. Krug, M. Gausche-Hill, R.A. Furnival, G.L. Walker, N. Medina, C. Prewitt, A.A.P.C.P.E. Med, Pediatric mental health emergencies in the emergency medical services system, Pediatrics. 118 (2006) 1764–1767. doi:10.1542/peds.2006-1925.[12] K.N. Shaw, S.E. Krug, A.D. Ackerman, T. Bojko, J.A. Fein, L.S. Fitzmaurice, K.S. Frush, S.M. Fuchs, L.C. Hampers, B.R. Moore, P.J. O’Malley, R.E. Sapien, P.E. Sirbaugh, M. Tenenbein, J.L. Wright, L.G. Yamamoto, K. Belli, K. Brown, K. Bullock, A. Garrett, M. Hostetler, C. Wright-Johnson, D. Kavanaugh, T. Loyacono, C. Pellegrini, L. Romig, S.K. Snow, D.W. Tuggle, T. Turgel, T.S. Weik, J.L. Wright, L. Pyles, S. Tellez, M.M. Simonian, J.H. Schneider, E. Marcus, K.A. Benson, D.M. D’Alessandro, M.A. Del Beccaro, W.H. Drummond, E.G. Handler, G.R. Kim, C.U. Lehmann, M. Leu, G.C. Lund, A.E. Zuckerman, E. Tham, J. Mansour, B. Marshall, M.A. Hostetler, K. Brown, R.W. Johnson, J.T. Avarello, I.A. Barata, L.S. Benjamin, L. Bundy, J.M. Callahan, R.M. Cantor, J.E. Colletti, R.J. Cordle, C. DeMoor, A.M. Dietrich, J.M. Dy, M.R. Gartner, M.I. Herman, D.K. Holtzman, P. Ishimine, H. Jinivizian, M. Joseph, A. Khojasteh, J.M. Litell, D.S. Markenson, S. Mehta, L.A. Montagna, A. Muniz, A. Ojo, A.Z. Paul, M.T. Pillow, S.L. Rosman, A. Sacchetti, G.R. Schwartz, J. Shandro, G. Sharieff, A. Sorrentino, P.J. Whiteman, M. Witt, N.B. Medina, S. Wauson, A.A.P.C.P. Emer, C.C. Information, A.C.E.P.P. Em, Policy Statement-Emergency Information Forms and Emergency Preparedness for Children With Special Health Care Needs, Pediatrics. 125 (2010) 829–837. doi:10.1542/peds.2010-0186.[13] C.W. Anderson, D.J. Courain, P.A. Edmonds, A.C. Gouldey, N.T. Ward, A risk-based methodology for modeling, assessing, and managing risks to the Hampton roads bridge tunnels, Proc. 2005 IEEE Syst. Inf. Eng. Des. Symp. (2005) 34–39. doi:Doi 10.1109/Sieds.2005.193235.[14] M.S. Sever, E. Erek, R. Vanholder, M. Koc, M. Yavuz, N. Aysuna, H. Ergin, R. Ataman, M. Yenicesu, B. Canbakan, C. Demircan, N. Lameire, Lessons learned from the catastrophic Marmara earthquake: factors influencing the final outcome of renal victims, Clin. Nephrol. 61 (2004) 413–421.[15] D.B. Fagbuyi, D.J. Schonfeld, S.E. Krug, S. Chung, D.B. Fagbuyi, M.C. Fisher, S.M. Needle, D.J. Schonfeld, D.P. Advisory, Medical Countermeasures for Children in Public Health Emergencies, Disasters, or Terrorism, Pediatrics. 137 (2016). doi:ARTN e20154273 10.1542/peds.2015-4273.[16] A. Khorram-Manesh, O. Lupesco, T. Friedl, G. Arnim, K. Kaptan, A.R. Djalali, M. Foletti, L. Ingrasia, M. Ashkenazi, C. Arculeo, P. Fischer, B. Hreckovski, R. Komadina, S. Voigt, E. Carlstrom, J. James, D.D.T. Curriculum, Education in Disaster Management: What Do We Offer and What Do We Need? Proposing a New Global Program, Disaster Med. Public Health Prep. 10 (2016) 854–873. doi:10.1017/dmp.2016.88.[17] M.S. Sever, E. Erek, R. Vanholder, B. Yurugen, G. Kantarci, M. Yavuz, H. Ergin, S. Bozfakioglu, S. Dalmak, M.Y. Tulbek, H. Kiper, N. Lameire, Renal replacement therapies in the aftermath of the catastrophic Marmara earthquake, Kidney Int. 62 (2002) 2264–2271. doi:DOI 10.1046/j.1523-1755.2002.00669.x.[18] H.P. Friedl, O. Trentz, R. Hoffmann, T. Kossmann, Problems of Emergency Clinical Care in Major Disasters, Chirurg. 62 (1991) 239–242.[19] A. Khorram-Manesh, O. Lupesco, T. Friedl, G. Arnim, K. Kaptan, A.R. Djalali, M. Foletti, L. Ingrasia, M. Ashkenazi, C. Arculeo, P. Fischer, B. Hreckovski, R. Komadina, S. Voigt, E. Carlstrom, J. James, D.D.T. Curriculum, Education in Disaster Management: What Do We Offer and What Do We Need? Proposing a New Global Program, Disaster Med. Public Health Prep. 10 (2016) 854–873. doi:10.1017/dmp.2016.88.[20] A.R. Gallardo, A. Djalali, M. Foletti, L. Ragazzoni, F. Della Corte, O. Lupescu, C. Arculeo, G. von Arnim, T. Friedl, M. Ashkenazi, P. Fisher, B. Hreckovski, A. Khorram-Manesh, R. Komadina, K. Lechner, M. Stal, C. Patru, F.M. Burkle, P.L. Ingrassia, Core Competencies in Disaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance: A Systematic Review, Disaster Med. Public Health Prep. 9 (2015) 430–439. doi:10.1017/dmp.2015.24.[21] K. Kaptan, U. Kavlak, O. Yilmaz, O.T. Celik, A.K. Manesh, P. Fischer, O. Lupescu, P.L. Ingrassia, W.J. Ammann, M. Ashkenazi, C. Arculeo, R. Komadina, K. Lechner, G. Von Arnim, B. Hreckovski, 3D APPLICATIONS IN DISASTER MITIGATION and MANAGEMENT: CORE RESULTS of DITAC PROJECT, Isprs 8th 3d Geoinfo Conf. Wg Ii/2 Work. 40-2-W2 (2013) 173–177.[22] Z.A. Memish, M.W. Mah, Are Saudi Arabian hospitals prepared for the threat of biological weapons?, Saudi Med. J. 22 (2001) 6–9.[23] J.A. Barbera, M. Lozano Jr, Urban search and rescue medical teams: FEMA Task Force System, Prehospital Disaster Med. Off. J. Natl. Assoc. EMS Physicians World Assoc. Emerg. Disaster Med. Assoc. with Acute Care Found. 8 (n.d.) 349.[24] R.D. Armstrong, W.D. Cook, Goal Programming Models for Assigning Search and Rescue Aircraft to Bases, J. Oper. Res. Soc. 30 (1979) 555–561. http://www.jstor.org/stable/3009525.[25] T.E. Drabek, H.L. Tamminga, T.S. Kilijanek, C.R. Adams, Managing multiorganizational emergency responses: emergent search and rescue networks in natural disaster and remote area settings, [University of Toronto], [Toronto], 1981.[26] P. Hew, W. Sunshine, Urban Search and Rescue, Adv. Emerg. Nurs. J. 24 (2002) 26.[27] A. Andreadis, P. Menicori, A. Pietrelli, A real-time system for remote co-ordination of rescue teams in an emergency phase, Saf. Secur. Eng. 82 (2005) 713–720.[28] B. Xiang, W. Cheng, J.X. Liu, L.G. Huang, Y. Li, L.J. Liu, Triage of pediatric injuries after the 2008 Wen-Chuan earthquake in China, J. Pediatr. Surg. 44 (2009) 2273–2277. doi:10.1016/j.jpedsurg.2009.07.068.[29] Y.P. Ren, G.D. Tian, M.C. Zhou, Scheduling of Rescue Vehicles to Forest Fires via Multi-objective Particle Swarm Optimization, 2015 Int. Conf. Adv. Mechatron. Syst. (2015) 79–84.[30] I. Tsekourakis, C. Orlis, D. Ioannidis, D. Tzovaras, A Decision Support System for Real-Time Evacuation Management and Rescue Team Planning during Hazardous Events in Public Infrastructures, Telemat. Transp. Environ. 329 (2012) 1–9.[31] A. Ardalan, K.H. Naieni, M.J. Kabir, A.M. Zanganeh, A.A. Keshtkar, M.R. Honarvar, H. Khodaie, M. Osooli, Evaluation of Golestan Province’s Early Warning System for flash floods, Iran, 2006-7, Int. J. Biometeorol. 53 (2009) 247–254. doi:10.1007/s00484-009-0210-y.[32] M. Gul, A.F. Guneri, An artificial neural network-based earthquake casualty estimation model for Istanbul city, Nat. Hazards. 84 (2016) 2163–2178. doi:10.1007/s11069-016-2541-4.[33] S.M. Chen, Y.M. Wang, I. Tsou, Using artificial neural network approach for modelling rainfall-runoff due to typhoon, J. Earth Syst. Sci. 122 (2013) 399–405. doi:10.1007/s12040-013-0289-8.[34] J.K. Roy, D. Gupta, S. Goswami, An Improved Flood Warning System using WSN and Artificial Neural Network, 2012 Annu. Ieee India Conf. (2012) 770–774.[35] S. Waring, A. Zakos-Feliberti, R. Wood, M. Stone, P. Padgett, R. Arafat, The utility of geographic information systems (GIS) in rapid epidemiological assessments following weather-related disasters: Methodological issues based on the Tropical Storm Allison experience, Int. J. Hyg. Environ. Health. 208 (2005) 109–116.[36] W.S. Huffman, Geographic Information Systems, Expert Systems and Neural Networks: Disaster planning, mitigation and recovery, River Basin Manag. 5 (2001) 311–321.[37] A. Restas, Z. Dudas, Some Aspect of Human Features of the Use of Unmanned Aerial Systems in a Disaster-Specific Division, 2013 Int. Conf. Unmanned Aircr. Syst. (2013) 1030–1036.[38] S. GAO, S. LIU, Optimal Decision for Scheduling Problem in Emergency Systems [J], Syst. Eng. Electron. 10 (2003) 1222–1224.[39] S. Kumar, T. Havey, Before and after disaster strikes: A relief supply chain decision support framework, Int. J. Prod. Econ. 145 (2013) 613–629.[40] P. Wang, G. Reinelt, P. Gao, Y. Tan, A model, a heuristic and a decision support system to solve the scheduling problem of an earth observing satellite constellation, Comput. Ind. Eng. 61 (2011) 322–335.[41] M.D. McGinty, T.A. Burke, B. Resnick, D.J. Barnett, K.C. Smith, L. Rutkow, Decision Processes and Determinants of Hospital Evacuation and Shelter-in-Place During Hurricane Sandy, J. Public Heal. Manag. Pract. 23 (2017) 29–36. doi:10.1097/Phh.0000000000000404.[42] L. Zhou, X.H. Wu, Z.S. Xu, H. Fujita, Emergency decision making for natural disasters: An overview, Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. 27 (2018) 567–576. doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.09.037.[43] B. Özkul, E. Karaman, Doğal afetler için risk yönetimi, TMMOB Afet Sempozyumu Bildir. Kitabı. (2007) 5–7.[44] L. UZUNÇIBUK, Yerleşim yerlerinde afet ve risk yönetimi, Ankara Üniversitesi, Sos. Bilim. Enstitüsü, Kamu Yönetimi ve Siyaset Bilim. Anabilim Dalı, Kent ve Çevre Bilim. Doktora Tezi), Ankara. (2005).[45] V.T. Covello, J. Mumpower, Risk analysis and risk management: an historical perspective, Risk Anal. 5 (1985) 103–120.[46] Y. Yamashita, A. Matsuyama, H. Murakami, The case studies of damage investigation of the 2011 East Japan earthquake disaster using the vehicle for exploring under roads by GPR, Adv. Transp. Geotech. Ii. (2012) 643–648.[47] K.T. Shabestari, F. Yamazaki, J. Saita, M. Matsuoka, Estimation of the spatial distribution of ground motion parameters for two recent earthquakes in Japan, Tectonophysics. 390 (2004) 193–204. doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2004.03.031.[48] A.M. Dixit, R. Yatabe, R.K. Dahal, N.P. Bhandary, Initiatives for earthquake disaster risk management in the Kathmandu Valley, Nat. Hazards. 69 (2013) 631–654. doi:10.1007/s11069-013-0732-9.[49] Y.F. Dong, X.Q. Wang, A.X. Dou, Applications of Remote Sensing to Earthquake Emergency Response, Proc. Iscram China 2010 Fourth Int. Conf. Inf. Syst. Cris. Response Manag. (2010) 316–321.[50] S.I. Mari, Y.H. Lee, M.S. Memon, Sustainable and Resilient Supply Chain Network Design under Disruption Risks, Sustainability. 6 (2014) 6666–6686. doi:10.3390/su6106666.[51] S. Yan, C.K. Lin, S.Y. Chen, Optimal scheduling of logistical support for an emergency roadway repair work schedule, Eng. Optim. 44 (2012) 1035–1055. doi:10.1080/0305215x.2011.628389.[52] T. Gagnon, D.W. Kim, M. Roseberry, S. Tucker, J. Santos, K. Barker, B. Dickey, M. Orsi, Analysis of preparedness and recovery strategies for Virginia’s transportation systems, 2008 Syst. Inf. Eng. Des. Symp. (2008) 77–82. doi:Doi 10.1109/Sieds.2008.4559689.[53] R. Agrawal, A. Springer, E. Lovell, QuickResponseHost: Enabling Crowdsourced Disaster Response Stations, Proc. Fifth Ieee Glob. Humanit. Technol. Conf. Ghtc 2015. (2015) 233–239.[54] N.J. Sheikh, Developing a Strategic Roadmap for Policy and Decision Making: Case Study of ICT and Disaster Risk Reduction in Public Safety Networks, 2017 Portl. Int. Conf. Manag. Eng. Technol. (2017).[55] B. Cheng, D.M. Titterington, Neural Networks: A Review from a Statistical Perspective, Stat. Sci. 9 (1994) 2–30. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2246275.[56] W. Yi, A. Kumar, Ant colony optimization for disaster relief operations, Transp. Res. Part E Logist. Transp. Rev. 43 (2007) 660–672.[57] M. Adya, F. Collopy, How effective are neural networks at forecasting and prediction? A review and evaluation, J. Forecast. (1998). doi:10.1002/(SICI)1099-131X(1998090)17:5/6<481::AID-FOR709>3.3.CO;2-H.[58] G.P. Zhang, V.L. Berardi, Time series forecasting with neural network ensembles: An application for exchange rate prediction, J. Oper. Res. Soc. (2001). doi:10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601133.[59] A. Payal, C.S. Rai, B.V.R. Reddy, Analysis of Some Feedforward Artificial Neural Network Training Algorithms for Developing Localization Framework in Wireless Sensor Networks, Wirel. Pers. Commun. 82 (2015) 2519–2536. doi:10.1007/s11277-015-2362-x.
Birincil Dil en
Konular Matematik
Yayınlanma Tarihi Ağustos
Bölüm Articles
Yazarlar

Yazar: İrfan MACİT
Ülke: Turkey


Tarihler

Yayımlanma Tarihi : 31 Ağustos 2019

Bibtex @araştırma makalesi { forecasting484765, journal = {Turkish Journal of Forecasting}, issn = {}, eissn = {2618-6594}, address = {Giresun Üniversitesi Fen Edebiyat Fakültesi İstatistik Bölümü, Güre Yerleşkesi, 28100 Merkez, Giresun}, publisher = {Giresun Üniversitesi}, year = {2019}, volume = {03}, pages = {26 - 38}, doi = {10.34110/forecasting.484765}, title = {Estimating Risk Pressure Factor (RPF) with Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to Locate Search and Rescue (SAR) Team Station.}, key = {cite}, author = {Maci̇t, İrfan} }
APA Maci̇t, İ . (2019). Estimating Risk Pressure Factor (RPF) with Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to Locate Search and Rescue (SAR) Team Station. . Turkish Journal of Forecasting , 03 (1) , 26-38 . DOI: 10.34110/forecasting.484765
MLA Maci̇t, İ . "Estimating Risk Pressure Factor (RPF) with Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to Locate Search and Rescue (SAR) Team Station." . Turkish Journal of Forecasting 03 (2019 ): 26-38 <https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/forecasting/issue/50239/484765>
Chicago Maci̇t, İ . "Estimating Risk Pressure Factor (RPF) with Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to Locate Search and Rescue (SAR) Team Station.". Turkish Journal of Forecasting 03 (2019 ): 26-38
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - Estimating Risk Pressure Factor (RPF) with Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to Locate Search and Rescue (SAR) Team Station. AU - İrfan Maci̇t Y1 - 2019 PY - 2019 N1 - doi: 10.34110/forecasting.484765 DO - 10.34110/forecasting.484765 T2 - Turkish Journal of Forecasting JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 26 EP - 38 VL - 03 IS - 1 SN - -2618-6594 M3 - doi: 10.34110/forecasting.484765 UR - https://doi.org/10.34110/forecasting.484765 Y2 - 2019 ER -
EndNote %0 Turkish Journal of Forecasting Estimating Risk Pressure Factor (RPF) with Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to Locate Search and Rescue (SAR) Team Station. %A İrfan Maci̇t %T Estimating Risk Pressure Factor (RPF) with Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to Locate Search and Rescue (SAR) Team Station. %D 2019 %J Turkish Journal of Forecasting %P -2618-6594 %V 03 %N 1 %R doi: 10.34110/forecasting.484765 %U 10.34110/forecasting.484765
ISNAD Maci̇t, İrfan . "Estimating Risk Pressure Factor (RPF) with Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to Locate Search and Rescue (SAR) Team Station.". Turkish Journal of Forecasting 03 / 1 (Ağustos 2019): 26-38 . https://doi.org/10.34110/forecasting.484765
AMA Maci̇t İ . Estimating Risk Pressure Factor (RPF) with Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to Locate Search and Rescue (SAR) Team Station.. TJF. 2019; 03(1): 26-38.
Vancouver Maci̇t İ . Estimating Risk Pressure Factor (RPF) with Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to Locate Search and Rescue (SAR) Team Station.. Turkish Journal of Forecasting. 2019; 03(1): 26-38.