İç Savaşları Uzatan Nedir? Sistemsel, Örgütsel ve Bireysel Düzeydeki Faktörlerin Bir Değerlendirmesi

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 26 Sayı: 2, 180 - 199, 31.12.2024

Yunus Öztürk

https://doi.org/10.54627/gcd.1578510

Öz

Bu çalışmada, İkinci Dünya Savaşı’ndan bu yana, özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerde, devletlerarası savaşlardaki küresel düşüşün aksine, devlet içi çatışmaların artan yaygınlığının ardındaki faktörler araştırılmaktadır. Teknolojik, toplumsal ve ekonomik ilerlemeler devletlerarası çatışmaların azalmasını kolaylaştırırken devlet içi savaşlar, meydana gelmelerindeki artıştan ziyade sonlandırılmalarındaki düşüş nedeniyle yaygınlığını korumaktadır. Çalışma, iç savaşların uzamasını sistemsel, örgütsel ve bireysel düzeydeki faktörlere bağlamaktadır. Sistemsel düzeyde, dekolonizasyon, Soğuk Savaş müdahaleleri ve Soğuk Savaş sonrası çok kutuplu düzen gibi süreçler, genellikle güç dinamikleri ve rekabetçi çıkarlar tarafından yönlendirilen, sıklıkla dış müdahalelerle şiddetlenen, iç savaşları teşvik eden elverişli koşullar yaratmıştır. Buna ek olarak neoliberal ekonomi politikaları, küresel ekonomiyi parçalamış ve Küresel Güneyi marjinalleştirerek yasadışı ekonomilere dayanan “bölgesel çatışma komplekslerinin” ortaya çıkmasına yol açmıştır. Organizasyonel olarak devlet kapasitesi, coğrafi özellikler ve kaynak mevcudiyeti gibi faktörler, özellikle kaçakçılığa erişimi kolaylaştıran ve devlet kontrolünden kaçmayı mümkün kılan, uluslararası sınırlara yakın engebeli, kaynak zengini bölgelerde isyancı grupların direncini arttırmıştır. Ayrıca elit manipülasyonu ve hizipçilik, barış çabalarını engelleyebileceğinden isyancı gruplar içindeki liderlik ve uyum kalitesi çatışma süresini önemli ölçüde etkilemiştir. Son olarak bireysel düzeyde, kişisel çıkarlara dönük ekonomik teşviklerin yanı sıra etnik, siyasi veya ekonomik marjinalleşmeyle ilişkili şikâyetlerle şekillenen motivasyonlar, silahlı çatışmalara katılımın sürdürülmesini büyük ölçüde etkilemiştir. Çalışma, bu karmaşık faktörlerin kapsamlı bir şekilde anlaşılmasının çatışma sürelerini azaltmaya yönelik etkili politika stratejileri geliştirmek ve iç savaş çözümüne yönelik hem teorik hem de pratik yaklaşımları ilerletmek için önemli olduğu sonucuna varmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Devlet Ici Catismalar, Ic Savaslar, Ic Savas Suresi, Kalici Ic Savaslar, Catisma Cozumu

What Makes Civil Wars Protracted? A Review of Systemic, Organizational & Individual-Level Factors

Öz

This study investigates the factors behind the increasing prevalence of intrastate conflicts since World War II, contrasting with the global decline in interstate wars, particularly in the developing world. While advancements in technology, society, and economy have facilitated a reduction in interstate conflicts, intrastate wars have persisted due to a decline in their terminations rather than an increase in their onsets. The study attributes this prolongation to systemic, organizational, and individual-level factors. At the systemic level, processes such as decolonization, Cold War interventions, and the post-Cold War multipolar order has established conditions that foster civil wars, often exacerbated by external interventions driven by power dynamics and competitive interests. Additionally, neoliberal economic policies have fragmented the global economy and marginalized the Global South, fostering the emergence of “regional conflict complexes” reliant on illicit economies. Organizationally, factors such as state capacity, geographical features, and resource availability enhance the resilience of rebel groups, particularly in rugged, resource-rich territories near international borders that facilitate contraband access and enable evasion of state control. Furthermore, the quality of leadership and cohesion within insurgent groups significantly affect conflict duration, as elite manipulation and factionalism can obstruct peace efforts. Lastly, at the individual level, motivations shaped by grievances associated with ethnic, political, or economic marginalization, alongside economic incentives for private gain, largely sustain involvement in armed conflicts. The study concludes that a comprehensive understanding of these complex factors is crucial for developing effective policy strategies to reduce conflict durations, advancing theoretical and practical approaches to civil war resolution.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Intrastate Conflicts, Civil Wars, Civil War Duration, Persistent Civil Wars, Conflict Resolution

Kaynakça

• Akcinaroglu, S., & Radziszewski, E. (2005). Expectations, Rivalries, and Civil War Duration. International Interactions, 31(4), 349–374.
• Aliyev, H. (2020). Pro-regime Militias and Civil War Duration. Terrorism and Political Violence, 32(3), 630–650.
• Anderson, N. (2019). Competitive Intervention, Protracted Conflict, and the Global Prevalence of Civil War. International Studies Quarterly, 63(3), 692–706.
• Armstrong, A., & Rubin, B. R. (2002). Conference Summary: Policy Approaches to Regional Conflict Formations. New York. Center on International Cooperation.
• Autesserre, Séverine. (2009). Hobbes and the Congo: Frames, Local Violence, and International Intervention. International Organization, 63(2), 249–280.
• Autesserre, Séverine. (2010). Trouble With the Congo: Local Violence and the Failure of International Peacebuilding. Cambridge University Press.
• Bagozzi, B. E., Koren, O., & Mukherjee, B. (2017). Droughts, Land Appropriation, and Rebel Violence in the Developing World. The Journal of Politics, 79(3), 1057–1072.
• Balcells, L., & Kalyvas, S. N. (2012). Does Warfare Matter? Severity, Duration, and Outcomes of Civil Wars. ICIP Working Papers, 5.
• Balch-Lindsay, D., & Enterline, A. J. (2000). Killing Time: The World Politics of Civil War Duration, 1820-1992. International Studies Quarterly, 44(4), 615–642.
• Berdal, M. R. (2005). Beyond Greed and Grievance – and Not Too Soon …. Review of International Studies, 31(4), 687–698.
• Berdal, M. R., & Malone, D. (Eds.). (2000). Greed and Grievance. Lynne Rienner Publishers.
• Biddle, S. (2023). Back in the Trenches: Why New Technology Hasn’t Revolutionized Warfare in Ukraine. Foreign Affairs, 102(5), 153+.
• Brandt, P. T., Mason, T. D., Gurses, M., Petrovsky, N., & Radin, D. (2008). When and How the Fighting Stops: Explaining the Duration and Outcome of Civil Wars. Defence and Peace Economics, 19(6), 415–434.
• Buhaug, H., & Gates, S. (2002). The Geography of Civil War. Journal of Peace Research, 39(4), 417–433.
• Buhaug, H., Gates, S., & Lujala, P. (2009). Geography, Rebel Capability, and the Duration of Civil Conflict. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 53(4), 544–569.
• Cederman, L.-E., Gleditsch, K. S., & Buhaug, H. (2013). Inequality, Grievances, and Civil War. Cambridge University Press.
• Cederman, L.-E., Weidman, N. B., & Gleditsch, K. S. (2011). Horizontal Inequalities and Ethnonationalist Civil War: A Global Comparison. American Political Science Review, 105(3), 478–495.
• Collier, P. (2000a). Doing Well Out of War: An Economic Perspective. In M. R. Berdal & D. Malone (Eds.), Greed and Grievance: Economic Agendas in Civil Wars (pp. 91–112). Lynne Rienner Publishers.
• Collier, P. (2000b). Rebellion as a Quasi-Criminal Activity. The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 44(6), 839–853.
• Collier, P., Elliott, V. L., Hegre, H., Hoeffler, A., Reynal-Querol, M., & Sambanis, N. (2003). Breaking the Conflict Trap. Civil War and Development Policy. Washington, D.C.. The World Bank Group.
• Collier, P., & Hoeffler, A. (1998). On Economic Causes of Civil War. Oxford Economic Papers, 50(4), 563–573.
• Collier, P., & Hoeffler, A. (2004). Greed and Grievance in Civil War. Oxford Economic Papers, 56(4), 563–595.
• Collier, P., Hoeffler, A., & Rohner, D. (2008). Beyond Greed and Grievance: Feasibility and Civil War. Oxford Economic Papers, 61(1), 1–27.
• Collier, P., Hoeffler, A., & Söderbom, M. (2004). On the Duration of Civil War. Journal of Peace Research, 41(3), 253–273.
• Cronin, A. K. (2009). How Terrorism Ends: Understanding the Decline and Demise of Terrorist Campaigns. Princeton University Press.
• Cunningham, D. E. (2006). Veto Players and Civil War Duration. American Journal of Political Science, 50(4), 875–892.
• Cunningham, D. E., Gleditsch, K. S., & Salehyan, I. (2009). It Takes Two: A Dyadic Analysis of Civil War Duration and Outcome. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 53(4), 570–597.
• DeRouen Jr., K., & Sobek, D. (2004). The Dynamics of Civil War Duration and Outcome. Journal of Peace Research, 41(3), 303–320.
• Duffield, M. (2000). Globalization, Transborder Trade, and War Economies. In M. R. Berdal & D. Malone (Eds.), Greed and Grievance: Economic Agendas in Civil Wars (pp. 69–90). Lynne Rienner Publishers.
• Duffield, M. (2001). Global Governance and the New Wars: The Merging of Development and Security. Zed Books.
• Einsiedel, S., Bosetti, L., Chandran, R., Cockayne, J., Boer, J., & Wan, W. (2014). Major Recent Trends in Violent Conflict. Occasional Paper, 1. Tokyo. United Nations University Centre for Policy Research.
• Einsiedel, S., Bosetti, L., Cockayne, J., Salih, C., & Wan, W. (2017). Civil War Trends and the Changing Nature of Armed Conflict. Occasional Paper, 10. Tokyo. United Nations University Centre for Policy Research.
• Elbadawi, I. A., & Sambanis, N. (2000). External Interventions and the Duration of Civil Wars. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 2433.
• Escribà-Folch, A. (2010). Economic Sanctions and the Duration of Civil Conflicts. Journal of Peace Research, 47(2), 129–141.
• Fearon, J. D. (2004). Why Do Some Civil Wars Last so Much Longer than Others? Journal of Peace Research, 41(3), 275–301.
• Fearon, J. D. (2017). Civil War & the Current International System. Daedalus, 146(4), 18–32.
• Fearon, J. D., & Laitin, D. D. (2003). Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War. American Political Science Review, 97(1), 75–90.
• Fukuyama, F. (1989). The End of History? The National Interest, 16, 3–18.
• Gat, A. (2017). The Causes of War and the Spread of Peace: But Will War Rebound? (1st Edition). Oxford University Press.
• Gleditsch, K. S. (2007). Transnational Dimensions of Civil War. Journal of Peace Research, 44(3), 293–309.
• Gurr, T. R. (2010). Why Men Rebel. Paradigm Publishers.
• Hegre, H. (2004). The Duration and Termination of Civil War. Journal of Peace Research, 41(3), 243–252.
• Hironaka, A. (2005). Neverending Wars: The International Community, Weak States, and the Perpetuation of Civil War. Harvard University Press.
• Hoeffler, A. (2011). ‘Greed’ versus ‘Grievance’: A Useful Conceptual Distinction in the Study of Civil War? Studies in Ethnicity and Nationalism, 11(2), 274–284.
• Holsti, K. J. (2004). The State, War, and the State of War. Cambridge University Press.
• Humphreys, M., & Weinstein, J. M. (2008). Who Fights? The Determinants of Participation in Civil War. American Journal of Political Science, 52(2), 436–455.
• Iqbal, Z. (2006). Health and Human Security: The Public Health Impact of Violent Conflict. International Studies Quarterly, 50(3), 631–649.
• Kang, S., & Meernik, J. (2005). Civil War Destruction and the Prospects for Economic Growth. The Journal of Politics, 67(1), 88–109.
• Kathman, J., & Benson, M. (2019). Cut Short? United Nations Peacekeeping and Civil War Duration to Negotiated Settlements. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 63(7), 1601–1629.
• Kaufman, S. J. (2015). Nationalist Passions (Kindle Edition). Cornell University Press.
• Keen, D. (2000). Incentives and Disincentives for Violence. In M. R. Berdal & D. Malone (Eds.), Greed and Grievance: Economic Agendas in Civil Wars (pp. 19–42). Lynne Rienner Publishers.
• Keen, D. (2011). Greed and Grievance in Civil War. International Affairs, 88(4), 757–777.
• Kennedy, C., & Waldman, T. (2014). The Changing Nature of Intrastate Conflict and “New Wars” . In E. Newman & K. DeRouen Jr. (Eds.), Routledge Handbook of Civil Wars (pp. 213–223). Routledge.
• Koren, O., & Bagozzi, B. E. (2017). Living off the Land: The Connection between Cropland, Food Security, and Violence against Civilians. Journal of Peace Research, 54(3), 351–364.
• Koren, O., & Sarbahi, A. K. (2018). State Capacity, Insurgency, and Civil War: A Disaggregated Analysis. International Studies Quarterly, 62(2), 274–288.
• Krauthammer, C. (1990). The Unipolar Moment. Foreign Affairs, 70(1), Article 1.
• Krauthammer, C. (2002). The Unipolar Moment Revisited. The National Interest, 70, 5–18.
• Mandelbaum, M. (1998). Is Major War Obsolete? Survival, 40(4), 20–38.
• Mason, T. D., & Fett, P. J. (1996). How Civil Wars End: A Rational Choice Approach. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 40(4), 546–568.
• Mason, T. D., Weingarten, J. P., & Fett, P. J. (1999). Win, Lose, or Draw: Predicting the Outcome of Civil Wars. Political Research Quarterly, 52(2), 239–268.
• McAdam, D., McCarthy, J. D., & Zald, M. N. (2008). Introduction: Opportunities, Mobilizing Structures, and Framing Processes—Toward a Synthetic, Comparative Perspective on Social Movements. In D. McAdam, J. D. McCarthy, & M. N. Zald (Eds.), Comparative Perspectives on Social Movements: Political Opportunities, Mobilizing Structures, and Cultural Framings (pp. 1–20). Cambridge University Press.
• McAdam, D., Tarrow, S., & Tilly, C. (2004). Dynamics of Contention. Cambridge University Press.
• McLauchlin, T. (2018). The Loyalty Trap: Regime Ethnic Exclusion, Commitment Problems, and Civil War Duration in Syria and Beyond. Security Studies, 27(2), 296–317.
• Montalvo, J. G., & Reynal-Querol, M. (2010). Ethnic Polarization and the Duration of Civil Wars. Economics of Governance, 11(2), 123–143.
• Mueller, J. (2001). Retreat From Doomsday: The Obsolescence of Major War. Basic Books.
• Mukherjee, S. (2014). Why Are the Longest Insurgencies Low Violence? Politician Motivations, Sons of the Soil, and Civil War Duration. Civil Wars, 16(2), 172–207.
• Newman, E. (2014). Understanding Civil Wars: Continuity and Change in Intrastate Conflict. Routledge.
• Norrevik, S., & Sarwari, M. (2021). Third-Party Regime Type and Civil War Duration. Journal of Peace Research, 002234332097581.
• Olson, M. (2002). The Logic of Collective Action: Public Goods and the Theory of Groups. Harvard University Press.
• Østby, G. (2008). Polarization, Horizontal Inequalities and Violent Civil Conflict. Journal of Peace Research, 45(2), 143–162.
• Overy, R. (2024, June 23). Why it’s Too Late to Stop World War 3 – According to One of Britain’s Greatest Military Historians. The Telegraph. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/ books/authors/world-war-three-too-late-history-violence/
• Pearlman, W. (2009). Spoiling Inside and Out: Internal Political Contestation and the Middle East Peace Process. International Security, 33(3), 79–109.
• Pearlman, W. (2011). Violence, Nonviolence, and the Palestinian National Movement. Cambridge University Press.
• Pearlman, W. (2012). Precluding Nonviolence, Propelling Violence: The Effect of Internal Fragmentation on Movement Protest. Studies in Comparative International Development, 47(1), 23–46.
• Pearlman, W., & Cunningham, K. G. (2012). Nonstate Actors, Fragmentation, and Conflict Processes. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 56(1), 3–15.
• Pinker, S. (2011). The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined. Viking.
• Posen, B. R. (2017). Civil Wars & the Structure of World Power. Daedalus, 146(4), 167–179.
• Racker, M. (2023, November 20). Why So Many Politicians Are Talking About World War III. Time Magazine. https://time.com/6336897/israel-war-gaza-world-war-iii/
• Regan, P. M. (2002). Third-Party Interventions and the Duration of Intrastate Conflicts. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 46(1), 55–73.
• Reno, W. (2000). Shadow States and the Political Economy of Civil Wars. In M. R. Berdal & D. Malone (Eds.), Greed and Grievance: Economic Agendas in Civil Wars (pp. 43–68). Lynne Rienner Publishers.
• Rice, E. E. (1990). Wars of the Third Kind: Conflict in Underdeveloped Countries. University of California Press.
• Robinson, P. (2022). The Russia-Ukraine Conflict and the (Un)Changing Character of War. Journal of Military and Strategic Studies, 22(2), 65-88.
• Rustad, S. A. (2024). Conflict Trends: A Global Overview, 1946-2023 [PRIO Paper]. Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO).
• Rustad, S. C. A., Rød, J. K., Larsen, W., & Gleditsch, N. P. (2008). Foliage and Fighting: Forest Resources and the Onset, Duration, and Location of Civil War. Political Geography, 27(7), 761–782.
• Shearer, D. (2000). Aiding or Abetting? Humanitarian Aid and Its Economic Role in Civil War. In M. R. Berdal & D. Malone (Eds.), Greed and Grievance: Economic Agendas in Civil Wars (pp. 189–204). Lynne Rienner Publishers.
• Skocpol, T. (1985). Bringing the State Back In: Strategies of Analysis in Current Research. In P. B. Evans, D. Rueschemeyer, & T. Skocpol (Eds.), Bringing the State Back In (pp. 3–37). Cambridge University Press.
• Skocpol, T. (2008). States & Social Revolutions: A Comparative Analysis of France, Russia, and China. Cambridge University Press.
• Soysa, I. (2000). The Resource Curse: Are Civil Wars Driven by Rapacity or Paucity? In M. R. Berdal & D. Malone (Eds.), Greed and Grievance: Economic Agendas in Civil Wars (pp. 113–136). Lynne Rienner Publishers.
• Stedman, S. J. (1997). Spoiler Problems in Peace Processes. International Security, 22(2), 5–53.
• Stedman, S. J. (2003). Peace Processes and the Challenges of Violence. In J. Darby & R. M. Ginty (Eds.), Contemporary Peacemaking: Conflict, Violence and Peace Processes (pp. 103–113). Palgrave Macmillan.
• Stewart, F. (Ed.). (2008). Horizontal Inequalities and Conflict. Palgrave Macmillan.
• Studdard, K. (2004). War Economies in a Regional Context: Overcoming the Challenges of Transformation. New York. International Peace Academy.
• Thyne, C. (2016). The Legacies of Civil War: Health, Education, and Economic Development. In T. D. Mason & S. M. Mitchell (Eds.), What Do We Know About Civil Wars? (pp. 157–175). Rowman & Littlefield.
• Tilly, C. (1978). From Mobilization to Revolution. Random House.
• Tilly, C. (1985). War Making and State Making as Organized Crime. In P. B. Evans, D. Rueschemeyer, & T. Skocpol (Eds.), Bringing the State Back In (pp. 169–191). Cambridge University Press.
• Tilly, C., & Tarrow, S. (2015). Contentious Politics (2nd Edition). Oxford University Press.
• Walter, B. F. (2006). Building Reputation: Why Governments Fight Some Separatists but Not Others. American Journal of Political Science, 50(2), 313–330.
• Walter, B. F. (2017). The New New Civil Wars. Annual Review of Political Science, 20(1), 469–486.
• Weber, M. (1946). Politics as a Vocation. In H. H. Gerth & C. W. Mills (Eds.), From Max Weber: Essays in Sociology (pp. 77–128). Oxford University Press.
• Wucherpfennig, J., Metternich, N. W., Cederman, L.-E., & Gleditsch, K. S. (2012). Ethnicity, the State, and the Duration of Civil War. World Politics, 64(1), 79–115.