Matematiksel Modelleme Yöntemleri İle Elmada Verim ve Vejetatif Gelişimin Tahmin Edilmesi

Hamit Armağan; Ersin Atay

TR EN

Matematiksel Modelleme Yöntemleri İle Elmada Verim ve Vejetatif Gelişimin Tahmin Edilmesi

Öz

Bu çalışmada elma ağaçlarında yüksek belirleme katsayısına sahip matematiksel modellemelerle bahçe tesisini takip eden ilk 7 yıl verisine dayalı olarak bahçenin ekonomik ömrünü (15 yıl) kapsayacak şekilde verim ve vejetatif gelişimin tahmin edilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Göller Yöresi şartlarında yürütülen çalışmada M.9 anaçlı ‘Golden Reinders’ elma çeşidine ait ağaçlar kullanılmıştır. Bahçe tesisini takiben toplamda 15 ağaç belirlenmiş ve 7 yıl boyunca aynı ağaçların verim ve gövde çapı değerleri belirlenmiştir. Matlab programı yardımıyla toplanan verilere dayalı verim ve vejetatif gelişim regresyon modellemeleri yapılmıştır. Sonuçlar karşılaştırmalı olarak değerlendirilmiş ve yıl-ağaç gövde çapı ilişkisinin belirlenmesinde kuvvet regresyon modeli, ağaç gövde çapı-verim ilişkisinin belirlenmesinde ise fourier regresyon modeli ön plana çıkmıştır. Elma bahçelerinin ekonomik ömrü boyunca verim ve vejetatif gelişim nasıl bir seyir izler sorusunun cevabının ancak bu tarz modellemeler yardımıyla cevaplanabileceği sonucuna varılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

makine öğrenmesi , Malus x domestica , regresyon , ürün yükü

Prediction of Yield And Vegetative Growth in Apple Using Mathematical Modeling Methods

Abstract

In this study, the aim is to predict the yield and vegetative growth of apple trees over the economic lifespan of an orchard (15 years) based on mathematical models with high determination coefficients applied to data from the first 7 years following orchard establishment. Trees of the 'Golden Reinders' apple variety grafted on M.9 rootstock were used in the study conducted under the conditions of the “Göller Yöresi”. A total of 15 trees were selected following orchard establishment, and their yield and trunk diameter values were determined over 7 years. Regression models for yield and vegetative growth were constructed using the data collected with the assistance of the Matlab program. The results were comparatively evaluated, and the power regression model emerged as prominent in determining the year-tree trunk diameter relationship, while the Fourier regression model took precedence in establishing the tree trunk diameter-yield relationship. It was concluded that answering the question of how yield and vegetative growth evolve throughout the economic lifespan of apple orchards can only be achieved through such modeling approaches.

Keywords

machine learning , Malus x domestica , regression , crop load

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Details

Primary Language

Turkish

Subjects

Computer Software , Software Engineering (Other)

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Hamit Armağan ^*
0000-0002-8948-1546
Türkiye

Ersin Atay
0000-0003-0810-3779
Türkiye

Publication Date

December 31, 2023

Submission Date

November 26, 2023

Acceptance Date

December 19, 2023

Published in Issue

Year 2023 Volume: 9 Number: 4

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA73WC24KD

IEEE

[1]H. Armağan and E. Atay, “Matematiksel Modelleme Yöntemleri İle Elmada Verim ve Vejetatif Gelişimin Tahmin Edilmesi”, GJES, vol. 9, no. 4, pp. 201–210, Dec. 2023, [Online]. Available: https://izlik.org/JA73WC24KD

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