Integrated Analysis of Crime Incidents within a Loose-Coupled GIS-Based System: Case of Etlik Police Station Zone in 2000

Year 2010, Volume: 23 Issue: 4, 531 - 549, 23.09.2010

Aygün Erdoğan , Ayşe Gedik H. Şebnem Düzgün

Abstract

The empirical testing of theories of the new ecology of crime (place-based theories) requires systems that permit the use of multiple analytical tools at a time. For this purpose, in this paper a loose-coupled GIS-based system is developed to facilitate an integrated quantitative analysis of place-related (in terms of both space and time) incident data through data input-output. The system comprises five components: a relational database management system; document and spreadsheet software; a standard desktop GIS; statistical software; and a spatial statistics/spatial data analysis tool. To test the place-based theoretical approach, the spatial and temporal distribution of incidents in the year 2000 against people, property, and people and property within the Etlik Police Station Zone, which is characterized by different development patterns (i.e., planned, early stage gecekondu (squatter) and in-transition settlements), are analyzed using the developed system. The findings of the paper supported the new ecology theories at a mezo-micro (intra-urban) ecological level, in that the incidents displayed differences in their global and local scale spatial and temporal distribution in different development patterns. The developed system proved to be an effective means of carrying out complicated quantitative analyses, while also providing a flexible and comparative environment for such analyses.

 Keywords: Loose-coupled GIS-based system, crime pattern analysis, new ecology (place-based) theories of crime, global-scale properties, local-scale properties  

Keywords

Loose-coupled GIS-based system, crime pattern analysis, new ecology (place-based) theories of crime, global-scale properties, local-scale properties

References

• [1] Weisburd, D. and McEwen, T., Introduction: crime mapping and crime prevention. In Crime mapping and crime prevention, vol. 8: Crime prevention studies, eds. D. Weisburd and T. McEven, Monsey, New York, Criminal Justice Press, 1-23 (1998).
• [2] Anselin, L., Cohen, J., Cook, D., Gorr, W. and Tita, G., Spatial analysis of crime. Criminal Justice, vol. 4: Measurement and analysis of crime and justice, http://www.ncjrs.org/criminal_justice2000/vol_4/04 e.pdf accessed March 10, 2002 (2000).
• [3] Brantingham, P. J. and Brantingham, P. L., Introduction: The dimensions of crime. In Environmental Criminology, eds. P.J. Brantingham and P.L. Brantingham, Beverly Hills, CA, Sage Publications, 7-26 (1981a).
• [4] Wu, T., Analysing crime spatial patterns using remote sensing and geographical information system technologies: Investigating the urban opportunity structure model of Jackson, Mississippi, PhD Thesis, Lousiana State University. 1,2,14-16 (2001).
• [5] Schneider, R. H. and Kitchen, T., Planning for crime prevention: A transatlantic perspective. London, USA, Canada: Routledge, Tylor and Francis Group, 108,116 (2002).
• [6] Nelson, A.L., Bromley, R.D.F. and Thomas, C.J. The geography of shoplifting in a British city: Evidence from Cardiff. Geoforum 27(3): 409-423 (1996).
• [7] Erdoğan, A., Exploring crime in a spatial and temporal context: Suitable response strategies for urban planning and policing by the case of Etlik Police Station Zone. PhD Thesis, Middle East Technical University, Türkiye. 3, 40, 68, 69, 83, 110, 125, 138, 151, 269, 271 (2007).
• [8] Henry, L. M. and Bryan, B. A., Visualizing the spatio-temporal patterns of motor vehicle theft in Adelaide, South Australia. In Conference on crime mapping: Adding value to crime prevention and control, Adelaide. http://www.aic.gov.au/ conferences/mapping/henry.pdf accessed February 16, 2003 (2000).
• [9] Sweet, S. P., A study of the effects of public transportation on crime: From the metro to the mall. PhD Thesis, University of Maryland College Park. http://wwwlib.umi.com/dissertations/fullcit/9707669 accessed March 4, 2002 (1996).
• [10] Kinney, J. B., A spatial analysis of calls for police service and bar locations in downtown Vancouver (British Columbia). MA Thesis, Simon Fraser University, Canada. http://wwwlib.umi.com/ dissertations/fullcit/MQ51378 accessed March 4, 2002 (1999).
• [11] Gül, H. N., Hırsızlık suçlarının aydınlatılmasında coğrafi bilgi sistemleri: Bursa İli pilot uygulaması. Y.L. Tezi, İstanbul Üniversitesi, 1-114 (2002). [12] Sui, D. Z., GIS-based urban modelling: Practices, problems, and prospects. International Journal of GIS, 12(7): 651-671 (1998).
• [13] Park, R. E., Burgess, E. W., and MacKenzie, R. D. The city. Chicago, IL, University of Chicago Press (1925/1928).
• [14] Veenendaal, B. and Houweling, T., Gut feelings, crime data and GIS. In: Conference on Crime Mapping: Adding Value to Crime Prevention and Control, Adelaide. http://www.aic.gov.au/ conferences/mapping/houweling.pdf accessed June 6, 2002 (2000).
• [15] Whitt, H. P., The moral statisticians. In Encyclopedia of Criminology and Deviant Behavior, Volume I: Historical, Conceptual, and Theoretical Issues, C. D. Bryant (chief ed.), P.A. Adler, P. Adler and C. Jay (assoc. eds.), USA, Brunner-Routledge, Taylor and Francis Group, 229-232 (2001).
• [16] Eck, J. E. and Weisburd D., Crime places in crime theory. In Crime Prevention Studies, vol. 4: Crime and Place. eds. J. Eck and D. Weisburd, Monsey, NY, Criminal Justice Press, 1-34 (1995).
• [17] Eck, J. E., What do those dots mean? mapping theories with data. In Crime mapping and crime prevention, vol. 8: Crime prevention studies, eds. D. Weisburd and T. McEven, Monsey, New York, Criminal Justice Press, 379-406 (1998).
• [18] Quetelet, A., Research on the propensity for crime at different ages. Translated by Sawyer F. Sylveski. Cincinnati, OH, Anderson ([1831] 1984).
• [19] Guerry, Par A. M., Essai sur la statistique morale de la France. Paris, Crochard (1833).
• [20] Shaw, C.R. and McKay, H. D., Juvenile delinquency and urban areas. Chicago, IL, University of Chicago Press (1942).
• [21] Quimet, M., Aggregation bias in ecological research: How social dsorganization and criminal opportunities shape the spatial distribution of juvenile delinquency in Montreal. Canadian Journal of Criminology, 42(2): 135-156 (2000).
• [22] Clark, G. A., Social disorganization theory. In Encyclopedia of Criminology and Deviant Behavior, Volume I: Historical, Conceptual, and Theoretical Issues, C. D. Bryant (chief ed.), P.A. Adler, P. Adler and C. Jay (assoc. eds.), USA, Brunner-Routledge, Taylor and Francis Group, 370-373 (2001).
• [23] Herbert, D. T., The geography of urban crime. New York, NY, Longman Group Ltd. (1982). [24] Glyde, J., Localities of crime in Suffolk. Journal of the Statistical Society of London. 19: 102-106 (1856).
• [25] Jones, E., Towns and cities. (sec. edi.), London, Oxford University Press, 138 (1970).
• [26] Miethe, T. D., Ecology of crime. In Encyclopedia of Criminology and Deviant Behavior, Volume II: Crime and Juvenile Delinquency. C. D. Bryant (chief ed.), D. Luckenbill and D. Pek (assoc. eds.), USA, Brunner-Routledge, Taylor and Francis Group, 203-205 (2001).
• [27] Park, R. E., The city: Suggestion for investigation of human behavior in the urban environment. In Classic Essays on the Culture of Cities. R. Sennet (ed.), (reprint) New York, Appleton-Century-Crofts (1969/1916). [28] Schwab, W. A., Theories of the city. In The Sociology, New York, Prentice Hall, 1-34 (1992).
• [29] McNulty, T. L., Social ecology theory. In Encyclopedia of Criminology and Deviant Behavior, Volume I: Historical, Conceptual, and Theoretical Issues, C. D. Bryant (chief ed.), P.A. Adler, P. Adler and C. Jay (assoc. eds.), USA, Brunner-Routledge, Taylor and Francis Group, 374-377 (2001).
• [30] Newman, O., Defensible space: People and design in the violent city. London: Architectural Press and New York, NY, McGraw-Hill and Macmillan (1972).
• [31] Jeffrey, C. R., Crime prevention through environmental design. Beverly Hills, CA, Sage Publications (1971).
• [32] Hillier, B., A state of mind. RIBA Journal, May: 202 (1977).
• [33] Hillier, B., Hanson, J., Peponis, J., Hudson, J. and Burdett, R., Space syntax: A different urban perspective. The Architects’ Journal, 178(48): 47- 64 (1983).
• [34] Cohen, L. E. and Felson, M., Social change and crime rate trends: A routine activity approach. American Sociological Review, 44(4): 588-608 (1979).
• [35] Clarke, R. V., Situational crime prevention: Theory and practice. British Journal of Criminology, 20: 137-147 (1980).
• [36] Clarke, R. V., ed. Situational crime prevention: Successful case studies. Albany, NY: Harrow and Heston (1992).
• [37] Clarke, R. V., ed. Situational crime prevention: Successful case studies. (sec. edi.) Albany, NY, Harrow and Heston (1997).
• [38] Cornish, D. B. and Clarke, R. V., eds. The reasoning criminal: Rational choice perspectives on offending. New York, Springer-Verlag (1986).
• [39] Brantingham, P. L. and Brantingham, P. J., Notes on the geometry of crime. In Environmental Criminology, eds. P.J. Brantingham and P.L. Brantingham, Beverly Hills, CA, Sage Publications, 27-54 (1981b).
• [40] Brantingham, P. J. and Brantingham, P. L., Patterns in crime. New York, NY, Macmillan (1984).
• [41] Wilson, J. Q. and Kelling, G. L., Broken windows. The Atlantic Monthly, 211, March:29-38 (1982).
• [42] Sherman, L. W., Gartin, P. R. and Buerger, M. E., Hot spots of predatory crime: Routine activities and the criminology of place. Criminology, 27(1): 24-56 (1989).
• [43] Canter, D. and Larkin, P. The environmental range of serial rapists. Journal of Environmental Psychology, 13(1): 63-69 (1993).
• [44] Rossmo, D.K., Geographic profiling: Target patterns of serial murderers. PhD Thesis, Simon Fraser University,Canada. http://wwwlib.umi.com/dissertations/fullcit/NN1708 3 accessed March 4, 2002 (1995).
• [45] Clarke, R. V., Theoretical background to crime prevention through environmental design, and situational prevention. In Conference on Designing Out Crime: Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design, Sydney. http://www.aic.gov. au/conferences/cpted/clarke.pdf accessed May 6, 2002 (1989).
• [46] Harries, K., Mapping crime: Principle and practice. http://www.ncjrs.org/html/nij/mapping/ch1_14.html accessed March 3, 2002 (1999).
• [47] Clarke, R. V. and Weisburd, D., On the distribution of deviance. In Policy and Theory in Criminal Justice. eds. D. M. Gottfredson and R. V. Clarke, Aldershot, UK, Avebury (1990).
• [48] Goldstein, H., Problem-oriented policing. New York, NY, McGraw-Hill (1990).
• [49] Weisburd, D., From criminals to criminal Contexts: Reorienting crime prevention research and policy. In Crime and Social Organization. Advances in Criminological Theory. Vol 10, eds. E. Waring and D. Weisburd, New Brunswick and London, Transaction Publishers, 197-216 (2002).
• [50] Young, L. E., Patterns of victimization in rape (rape patterns). PhD Thesis, University of Texas at Austin. http://wwwlib.umi.com/dissertations/fullcit/9225777 accessed March 4, 2002 (1992).
• [51] Leitner, M., First and second order properties of spatial point patterns: The application of crime data from Baton Rouge, LA. In 4th International Conference on GeoComputation, Virginia, http://www.geovista.psu.edu/sites/geocomp99/files/ geocomp99_program.pdf accessed June 6, 2002 (1999).
• [52] Pelkey, W. L., An investigation into the spatial randomness of crime series. PhD Thesis, University of Northern Colorado. http://wwwlib.umi.com/ dissertations/fullcit/9029138 accessed March 4, 2002 (1990).
• [53] Alston, J. D., The serial rapist’s spatial pattern of target selection. MA Thesis, Simon Fraser University, Canada. http://wwwlib.umi.com/ dissertations/fullcit/MM01030 accessed March 4, 2002 (1994).
• [54] Anstey, M. C., Spatial and structural determinants of residential burglary rates in Kitchener-Waterloo (Ontario). MA Thesis, Wilfrid Laurier University, Canada. http://wwwlib.umi.com/dissertations/fullcit/ MQ24372 accessed March 4, 2002 (1998).
• [55] Davison, E. L. and Smith, W. R., The relationship between crime and urban location in Raleigh, North Carolina. http://www.ncsociology.org/beth9.htm accessed March 8, 2002 (2002).
• [56] Li, J. and Rainwater, J., The real picture of land-use density and crime: A GIS application. http://www.esri.com/library/userconf/proc00/profess ional/papers/PAP508/p508.htm accessed March 9, 2002 (2002).
• [57] Schumacher B. J. and Leitner M., Spatial crime displacement resulting from large-scale urban renewal programs in the City of Baltimore, MD: A GIS Modelling Approach. In 4th International Conference on GeoComputation, Mary Washington Coll., Fredericksburg, Virgina, http://www.geovista. psu.edu/sites/geocomp99/Gc99/047/gc_047.htm. accessed May 23, 2002 (1999).
• [58] Suresh, G., Spatial analysis of crime: Aggravated assault, homicide, and rape patterns in the City of Louisville (1989-1998) (Kentucky). PhD Thesis, University of Louisville. http://wwwlib.umi.com/ dissertations/fullcit/3000481 accessed February 7, 2002 (2000).
• [59] Phillips, J. A., Crime and migration: Three essays examining causes and consequences of two urban social challenges. PhD Thesis, University of Pennsylvania. http://wwwlib.umi.com/dissertations/ fullcit/9913511 accessed March 4, 2002 (1998).
• [60] Portnov, B. A. and Rattner, A., Spatial patterns of crime in Israel: Investigating the effects of interurban inequality and proximity. In 43rd Congress of the European Regional Science Association, Finland (2003).
• [61] Pruitt, M. V., Economic deprivation, racial inequality, urban underclass, and crime: An examination of the effects of structural covariates on race-and age-specific arrest rates for homicide, robbery, and burglary. PhD Thesis, North Caroline State University. http://wwwlib.umi.com/ dissertations/fullcit/9606343 accessed March 4, 2002 (1995).
• [62] Sacerdote, B. I., Essays in applied microeconomics: The lottery winner survey, crime and social interactions, and why is there more crime in cities?. PhD Thesis, Harvard University. http://wwwlib.umi. com/dissertations/fullcit/9721692 accessed March 4, 2002 (1997).
• [63] Park, M., Relationships between crime and tourism development: A comparative study of rural Colorado communities. PhD Thesis, Texas A&M University. http://wwwlib.umi.com/dissertations/fullcit/9994310 accessed February 7, 2002 (2000).
• [64] Erkut, G., Ocakçı, M. and Ünlü, A., Evaluation of crime profile in Istanbul metropolitan area. Trialog 70, A Journal for Planning and Building in the Third World, Vol.3:30-33 (2001). [65] Ergun, N., Giritlioğlu, C. and Yirmibeşoğlu, F., Social change and criminality in Istanbul. In 43rd Congress of the European Regional Science Association, Finland (2003).
• [66] Fanek, M. F., The use of space syntax methodology in predicting the distribution of crime in urban environments. PhD Thesis, Texas Tech University. http://wwwlib.umi.com/dissertations/fullcit/9736893 accessed March 4, 2002 (1997).
• [67] Farooq, A., Social and spatial implications of community-based residential environments on crime in urban settings. PhD Thesis, Georgia Institute of Technology. http://wwwlib.umi.com/dissertations/ fullcit/9966947 accessed March 4, 2002 (1999).
• [68] Dumanovsky, T., Crime in poor places: Examining the neighbourhood context of NYC’s public housing projects. PhD Thesis, New York University. http://wwwlib.umi.com/dissertations/fullcit/9945271 accessed March 4, 2002 (1999).
• [69] Ünlü, A., Alkışer, Y. ve Edgü, E., Fiziksel ve sosyokültürel değişim bağlamında Beyoğlu’nda suç olgusunun değerlendirilmesi. İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi Araştırma Fonu, Proje no:1094 (2000)
• 70] Clontz, K.A., Residential and commercial burglaries: An empirical test of crime prevention through environmental design (defensible space), PhD Thesis, Florida State University http://wwwlib.umi.com/dissertations/fullcit/9526744 accessed March 4, 2002 (1995).
• [71] Howard, M. R., Crime prevention through environmental design: An investigation of the effect of modular lotting on property crime. MLA Thesis, University of Guelph, Canada. http://wwwlib. umi.com/dissertations/fullcit/MQ43175 accessed March 4, 2002 (1999).
• [72] Kaplan, E. A., Kentleşen toplumda suçluluk sorunu ve polis örgütü. Kamu Yönetimi Lisansüstü Uzmanlık Programı Tezi, TODAİE (1980). [73] Uğur, N., Gecekondularda suç ve suçluluk (Ankara örneği). Y.L. Tezi, Gazi Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü (1986).
• [74] Şener, M., Büyük kentlerin gecekondu bölgelerindeki sosyo-ekonomik yapının suç olgusuna etkileri (İzmir büyükkent belediyesi yönetimi alanında Konak ilçesi için nir Yaklaşım). Kamu Yönetimi Y.L. Tezi, Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü (1994).
• [75] Sayın, F., 1993-1997 Yılları arasında İstanbul’da meydana gelen gasp olaylarının sosyo-ekonomik analizi. İktisat Y.L. Tezi, Marmara Üniversitesi, Orta Doğu ve İslam Ülkeleri Enstitüsü (1998).
• [76] Alpdemir, E. A., 1999-2004 yılları arasında Eskişehir'de işlenen asayiş suçlarına ilişkin suç haritalarının coğrafi bilgi sistemleri yardımıyla oluşturulması. Uzaktan Algılama ve CBS Y.L. Tezi, Anadolu Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü (2006).
• [77] Duzgun, H. S. and Erdogan, A., A methodology for mapping and spatial analysis of auto theft and theft from auto incidents in the City of Konya. In 3rd European Academy of Forensic Science Meeting, İstanbul, Türkiye, Forensic Science International Vol.136/Suppl.1:15-16 (2003).
• [78] Akpınar, E., Using geographic information systems in analysing the pattern of crime incidents and the relationship between landuse and incidents. MS Thesis, Middle East Technical University, Türkiye. (2005).
• [79] Ekblom, P., Getting the best out of crime analysis. Crime Prevention Unit Paper No.10, Home Office, London. (1988)
• [80] Hirschfield, A., Brown, P. and Todd, P., GIS and the analysis of spatially referenced crime data: Experiences in Merseyside, UK. International Journal of Geographical Information Systems, 9:191-210 (1995).
• [81] Deniz, D., Secure urban environments by design: Analysis of Konak square design through crime prevention through environmental design (CPTED) principles, PhD Thesis, İzmir Institute of Technology, Türkiye. http://bliss.iyte.edu.tr/cgi-bin/ bliss/w3cat?d=tezler&n=0000521 accessed March 28, 2010 (2007).
• [82] Işık, O. ve Pınarcıoğlu, M. M., Nöbetleşe yoksulluk: Sultanbeyli örneği. (ikinci baskı) Araştırma İnceleme Dizisi, 114, İstanbul, İletişim Yayınları (2002).
• [83] Bailey, T. C. and Gatrell, A. C., Interactive spatial data analysis. (sec. edi.) Harlow, England, Longman Group Limited, 32-35 (1996).
• [84] Levine, N., CrimeStat: A spatial statistics program for the analysis of crime incident locations (v 3.0). Ned Levine & Associates, Houston, TX, and the National Institute of Justice, Washington, DC, 5.1, 5.3, 5.12, 5.41, 8.42 (2004).
• [85] Gatrell, A. C., Bailey, T. C., Diggle, P. J. and Rowlingson, B. S., Spatial point pattern analysis and its application in geographical epidemiology. Trans. Inst. Br. Geogr. 21: 256–274 (1996).
• [86] The Crime Mapping Laboratory Police Foundation, Geocoding in law enforcement: Final report. Washington DC: U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Community Oriented Policing Services. http://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/ric/CDROMs/Tech Docs/CrimeMapping/GeocodingLawEnforcementFi nalReport.pdf accessed September 20, 2007 (2000).
• [87] Walford, N., Geographical data analysis. England: John Wiley and Sons Ltd., 174, 355 (1995).
• [88] Wong, D.W.S. and Lee, J., Statistical analysis of geographic information with ArcView GIS and ArcGIS. Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 220, 224 (2005).
• [89] Greig-Smith, P., The use of random and contiguous quadrats in the study of the structure of plant communities. Ann. Bot. 16: 293-316 (1952).
• [90] Taylor, P. J., Quantitative methods in geography: An introduction to spatial analysis. Boston, Houghton: Mifflin Company, 146-147 (1977).
• [91] Griffith, D. A. and Amrhein, C. G., Statistical analysis for geographers. Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, Prentice Hall (1991).
• [92] Greig-Smith, P., Quantitative plant ecology. (sec. edi.) London, Butterworth (1964).
• [93] Upton, G.J.G. and Fingleton, B., Spatial data analysis by example, vol. 1: Point pattern and quantitative data. Chichester, New York, Brisbane, Toronto, Singapore, John Wiley and Sons Ltd., 31 (1985).
• [94] Barlett, M. S., Determination of plant densities. Nature 162: 621-624 (1948).
• [95] Lwasa, S., Geospatial analysis and decision support for health services planning in Uganda. In 10th International Conference for Spatial Data Infrastructure, St. Augustine, Trinidad, http://www.gsdi.org/gsdiconf/gsdi10/papers/TS33.2 paper.pdf accessed March 28, 2010 (2008).
• [96] Williamson, D., McLafferty, S., Goldsmith, V., Mollenkopf, J. and McGuire, P., A better method to smooth crime incident data. http://www.esri.com/ news/arcuser/0199/crimedata.html accessed Februay 2, 2002 (1999).
• [97] Cressie, N., Statistics for spatial data. New York, J. Wiley and Sons, Inc., 613 (1991).