Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 1301-8752 1309-6338 Hacettepe Üniversitesi 10.17065/huniibf.1365452 Time-Series Analysis Zaman Serileri Analizi Investigation of the Relationship Between Brent Oil Price and Baltic Dirty Tanker and Clean Tanker Index Brent Petrol Fiyatı ile Baltık Kirli Tanker ve Temiz Tanker Endeksi Arasındaki İlişkinin Araştırılması https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2684-184X Tarkun Savaş 12 25 2024 42 4 642 660 09 24 2023 09 30 2024 Copyright © 1983, Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 1983 Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi

The relationship between oil prices and the transportation sector significantly affects trade volume. Oil can be used directly as a primary material in transportation activities or indirectly. These features show that oil is a very important resource for the transportation sector. Events occurring in world markets, such as crisis periods, not only affect related markets from education to trade, from industry to health, but also affect oil demand and freight prices. In this study, the short- and long-term relationship between the Brent oil price and the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index and the Baltic Clean Tanker Index is investigated. As a method, it was examined with the Distributed Lag Autoregressive (ARDL) bound test and the Toda Yamamoto causality test. According to the findings, BDTI affects the Brent oil price negatively and BCTI positively in the long term. At the same time, a causal relationship was obtained between the Brent oil price and the other two indices. Additionally, it has been found that short-term shocks can offset long-term deviations in approximately 15 months. These findings have shown that countries that import oil, especially by sea, should also take into account the effects of freight rates on oil prices.

Petrol fiyatları ile ulaştırma sektörü arasındaki ilişki ticaret hacmini önemli ölçüde etkilemektedir. Petrol, ulaştırma faaliyetlerinde doğrudan direkt ilk madde malzeme olarak kullanılabileceği gibi dolaylı olarak da kullanılabilmektedir. Bu özellikleri petrolün ulaştırma sektörü için çok önemli bir kaynak olduğunu göstermektedir. Dünya piyasalarında meydana gelen olaylar, örneğin kriz dönemleri, eğitimden ticarete, sanayiden sağlığa ilişkili olduğu piyasaları etkilediği gibi petrol talebini ve navlun fiyatlarını da etkilemektedir. Bu çalışmada, Brent Petrol fiyatı ile Baltık Kirli Tanker Endeksi (BDTI) ve Baltık Temiz Tanker Endeksi (BCTI) arasındaki kısa ve uzun dönem ilişkisi araştırılmaktadır. Yöntem olarak Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif (ARDL) sınır testi ile Toda Yamamoto nedensellik testi ile incelenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, uzun dönemde BDTI, Brent Petrol fiyatını negatif yönde, BCTI ise pozitif yönde etkilemektedir. Aynı zamanda Brent Petrol fiyatı ile diğer iki endeks arasında nedensellik ilişkisi elde edilmiştir. Ayrıca, kısa vadeli şokların uzun vadeli sapmaları yaklaşık 15 ayda dengeleyebildiği bulunmuştur. Bu bulgular, özellikle denizyolu ile petrol ithalatı yapan ülkelerin navlun fiyatlarının da petrol fiyatları üzerindeki etkilerini dikkate almaları gerektiğini göstermiştir.

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