Probabilistic forecasting of short-term electricity prices in the Turkish day-ahead market

Kübra Nur Akpınar

doi:10.35860/iarej.1820591

Probabilistic forecasting of short-term electricity prices in the Turkish day-ahead market

Abstract

In modern power systems with increasing renewable energy integration, electricity price forecasting has become increasingly vital for system planning. This study focuses on Türkiye’s Day-Ahead Market (DAM) prices by utilizing a probabilistic machine learning model to improve short-term price prediction. A Quantile Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR) was trained using hourly data obtained from the EPİAŞ transparency platform covering the period between 2022 and 2025. By estimating market-clearing prices, the model allows for capturing both the central tendency and the uncertainty of prices. The model includes time stamp data as hour and day, as well as electricity generation resources and past prices. Quantitatively, the model achieved an RMSE of 434.82 TRY/MWh, a CRPS of 194.98 TRY/MWh, and a PICP of 0.74 for the 80% prediction interval. The results show that the proposed approach provides high-performance prediction intervals when compared with traditional single-point models. This probabilistic model could be used for decision-making in energy markets, as well as for the scheduling of renewable integrated storage systems within renewable energy systems.

Keywords

References

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Electrical Energy Generation (Incl. Renewables, Excl. Photovoltaics)

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Kübra Nur Akpınar ^*
0000-0003-4579-4070
Türkiye

Publication Date

April 20, 2026

Submission Date

November 9, 2025

Acceptance Date

February 16, 2026

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Volume: 10 Number: 1

DOI

https://doi.org/10.35860/iarej.1820591

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA66HY27PH

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Akpınar, K. N. (2026). Probabilistic forecasting of short-term electricity prices in the Turkish day-ahead market. International Advanced Researches and Engineering Journal, 10(1), 21-27. https://doi.org/10.35860/iarej.1820591

AMA

1.Akpınar KN. Probabilistic forecasting of short-term electricity prices in the Turkish day-ahead market. Int. Adv. Res. Eng. J. 2026;10(1):21-27. doi:10.35860/iarej.1820591

Chicago

Akpınar, Kübra Nur. 2026. “Probabilistic Forecasting of Short-Term Electricity Prices in the Turkish Day-Ahead Market”. International Advanced Researches and Engineering Journal 10 (1): 21-27. https://doi.org/10.35860/iarej.1820591.

EndNote

Akpınar KN (April 1, 2026) Probabilistic forecasting of short-term electricity prices in the Turkish day-ahead market. International Advanced Researches and Engineering Journal 10 1 21–27.

IEEE

[1]K. N. Akpınar, “Probabilistic forecasting of short-term electricity prices in the Turkish day-ahead market”, Int. Adv. Res. Eng. J., vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 21–27, Apr. 2026, doi: 10.35860/iarej.1820591.

ISNAD

Akpınar, Kübra Nur. “Probabilistic Forecasting of Short-Term Electricity Prices in the Turkish Day-Ahead Market”. International Advanced Researches and Engineering Journal 10/1 (April 1, 2026): 21-27. https://doi.org/10.35860/iarej.1820591.

JAMA

1.Akpınar KN. Probabilistic forecasting of short-term electricity prices in the Turkish day-ahead market. Int. Adv. Res. Eng. J. 2026;10:21–27.

MLA

Akpınar, Kübra Nur. “Probabilistic Forecasting of Short-Term Electricity Prices in the Turkish Day-Ahead Market”. International Advanced Researches and Engineering Journal, vol. 10, no. 1, Apr. 2026, pp. 21-27, doi:10.35860/iarej.1820591.

Vancouver

1.Kübra Nur Akpınar. Probabilistic forecasting of short-term electricity prices in the Turkish day-ahead market. Int. Adv. Res. Eng. J. 2026 Apr. 1;10(1):21-7. doi:10.35860/iarej.1820591