A REGIONAL ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF AIRLINE COMPANIES IN COVID-19 WITH MONTE CARLO SIMULATION: ASIA - PACIFIC REGION

Abstract

Asia-Pacific region especially is a developing region for airlines regarding competition, industrial development, and national perspective, COVID-19 had a destructive and re-definitive impact on the total aviation systems of the region. In this study, we aimed to perform a comprehensive analysis of the cumulative return of the airlines’ stock with some specific economic variables, such as currency exchange rates, LIBOR, and Brent oil returns for a selected period and Asia-Pacific Region. Our model was confirmed, and our findings supported the economic relationships. All variables of the study are in a relationship with a cumulative return out of the USD-AUD currency exchange rate statistically. There were three alternatives, and one of them was selected with Monte Carlo Simulation.

Keywords

• : Asia-Pacific Region
• Airline Finance
• Econometric Analysis

MONTE CARLO SİMÜLASYONU İLE COVİD-19'DA HAVAYOLU ŞİRKETLERİNİN BÖLGESEL EKONOMİK ANALİZİ: ASYA - PASİFİK BÖLGESİ

Abstract

Asya-Pasifik bölgesi özellikle havayolları için rekabet, endüstriyel gelişme ve ulusal perspektif açısından gelişmekte olan bir bölge olup, COVID-19'un bölge toplam havacılık sistemleri üzerinde yıkıcı ve yeniden belirleyici bir etkisi olmuştur. Bu çalışmada, seçilmiş bir zaman aralığı ve Asya-Pasifik Bölgesi için havayolu şirketlerinin hisse senetlerinin kümülatif getirisinin döviz kurları, LIBOR ve Brent petrol getirileri gibi bazı spesifik ekonomik değişkenlerle kapsamlı bir analizini yapmayı amaçladık. Modelimiz kabul edilmekte ve bulgularımız ekonomik ilişkileri desteklemektedir. Bu çalışmada tüm değişkenler USD-AUD dışında döviz kurunun kümülatif getirisi ile ilişki içerisindedir. Üç alternatif model arasından birisi Monte Carlo Simülasyonu ile seçilmiştir.

Keywords

• Asya Pasifik Bölgesi
• Havayolu Finansmanı
• Ekonometrik Analiz

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