BibTex RIS Kaynak Göster

A Structural Approach for Testing Causality

Yıl 2011, Cilt: 3 Sayı: 2, 1 - 12, 01.09.2011

Öz

The ever present possibility of confounding factors creates difficulties in identifying causal effects on the basis of observational data. A large number of approaches to resolve this difficulty have been proposed; see Zaman (2010) for a recent survey. One involves using a 'natural experiment,' where nature acts like an experimenter in changing the setting of a key variable, allowing us to differentiate between 'treatment' and 'control' observations. This idea has been used by Hendry and Ericsson (1991), Hoover (2001), and Keane (2010) in rather complex settings. This paper presents an elementary version of this structural approach for detecting causality in the simplest possible setting. The structural method is able to detect contemporaneous causality. We illustrate the uses of this technique on a simulated data set, and also apply it to the export-led growth hypothesis for India and energy-growth data for Shanghai.

Kaynakça

  • Andrews, D.W.K. (1993). Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point. Econometrica, 61 (4), 821-56.
  • Angrist, J.D. and J.S. Pischke (2009). Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist’s Companion. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
  • Freedman, D.A (1991). Statistical models and Shoe leather. Sociological Methodology, 21, 291-313
  • Hendry, D.F. and N.R. Ericsson (1991). An econometric analysis of UK money demand in Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom. American Economic Review, 81, 8-38.
  • Hoover, D. (2001).Causality in Macroeconomics. Cambridge University Press.
  • Hoover, D. (2004). Lost Causes. Journal of the History of Economic Thought, 26 (2), 149- 164.
  • Keane, M.P. (2010). Structural vs. atheoretic approaches to econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 156 (1), 3-20. doi:10.1016/j.jeconom.2009.09.003
  • Love, J. and R. Chandra (2004). Testing Export-Led Growth in India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka A Multivariate Framework. The Manchester School, 72 (4), 483-496.
  • Love, J. and R. Chandra (2005). Testing export-led growth in South Asia. Journal of
  • Economic Studies, 32 (2), 132-145.
  • Madala, G.S. and Kim, In-Moo.(2000). Unit roots, cointegration, and structural change, Cambridge University Press,
  • Pagan, A.R. (1989). 20 Years After: Econometrics 1966-1986. In Contributions to Operations Research and Econometrics, ed. B. Cornet and H. Tulkens. The XXth Anniversary of CORE, Cambridge, Ma.: MIT Press.
  • Pearl, J. (2009). Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference. 2nd Edition, Cambridge University Press.
  • Toda, H.Y. and T. Yamamoto (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated process. Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225-250.
  • Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2004). Disaggregated industrial energy consumption and GDP: the case of Shanghai, 1952-1999. Energy Economics, 26 (1), 69-75.
  • Zaman, A. (2010). Causal Relations via Econometrics. International Econometric Review, 2 (1), 36-56.
Yıl 2011, Cilt: 3 Sayı: 2, 1 - 12, 01.09.2011

Öz

Kaynakça

  • Andrews, D.W.K. (1993). Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point. Econometrica, 61 (4), 821-56.
  • Angrist, J.D. and J.S. Pischke (2009). Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist’s Companion. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
  • Freedman, D.A (1991). Statistical models and Shoe leather. Sociological Methodology, 21, 291-313
  • Hendry, D.F. and N.R. Ericsson (1991). An econometric analysis of UK money demand in Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom. American Economic Review, 81, 8-38.
  • Hoover, D. (2001).Causality in Macroeconomics. Cambridge University Press.
  • Hoover, D. (2004). Lost Causes. Journal of the History of Economic Thought, 26 (2), 149- 164.
  • Keane, M.P. (2010). Structural vs. atheoretic approaches to econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 156 (1), 3-20. doi:10.1016/j.jeconom.2009.09.003
  • Love, J. and R. Chandra (2004). Testing Export-Led Growth in India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka A Multivariate Framework. The Manchester School, 72 (4), 483-496.
  • Love, J. and R. Chandra (2005). Testing export-led growth in South Asia. Journal of
  • Economic Studies, 32 (2), 132-145.
  • Madala, G.S. and Kim, In-Moo.(2000). Unit roots, cointegration, and structural change, Cambridge University Press,
  • Pagan, A.R. (1989). 20 Years After: Econometrics 1966-1986. In Contributions to Operations Research and Econometrics, ed. B. Cornet and H. Tulkens. The XXth Anniversary of CORE, Cambridge, Ma.: MIT Press.
  • Pearl, J. (2009). Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference. 2nd Edition, Cambridge University Press.
  • Toda, H.Y. and T. Yamamoto (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated process. Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225-250.
  • Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2004). Disaggregated industrial energy consumption and GDP: the case of Shanghai, 1952-1999. Energy Economics, 26 (1), 69-75.
  • Zaman, A. (2010). Causal Relations via Econometrics. International Econometric Review, 2 (1), 36-56.
Toplam 16 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Konular İşletme
Diğer ID JA88GD87CH
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Zahid Asghar Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Eylül 2011
Gönderilme Tarihi 1 Eylül 2011
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2011 Cilt: 3 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Asghar, Z. (2011). A Structural Approach for Testing Causality. International Econometric Review, 3(2), 1-12.
AMA Asghar Z. A Structural Approach for Testing Causality. IER. Aralık 2011;3(2):1-12.
Chicago Asghar, Zahid. “A Structural Approach for Testing Causality”. International Econometric Review 3, sy. 2 (Aralık 2011): 1-12.
EndNote Asghar Z (01 Aralık 2011) A Structural Approach for Testing Causality. International Econometric Review 3 2 1–12.
IEEE Z. Asghar, “A Structural Approach for Testing Causality”, IER, c. 3, sy. 2, ss. 1–12, 2011.
ISNAD Asghar, Zahid. “A Structural Approach for Testing Causality”. International Econometric Review 3/2 (Aralık 2011), 1-12.
JAMA Asghar Z. A Structural Approach for Testing Causality. IER. 2011;3:1–12.
MLA Asghar, Zahid. “A Structural Approach for Testing Causality”. International Econometric Review, c. 3, sy. 2, 2011, ss. 1-12.
Vancouver Asghar Z. A Structural Approach for Testing Causality. IER. 2011;3(2):1-12.