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TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATE AND MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES: THE TURKISH CASE

Yıl 2010, Cilt: 2 Sayı: 1, 77 - 85, 01.06.2010

Öz

This study includes very initial analyses of ongoing research which investigate the relationship between term structure of interest rate and macro variables in Turkey. Initial .ndings indicate that corresponding relation has structural break around 2002 which coincides with new mon- etary policy namey in.ation targeting. In pre2002 period role of macro- economic variables in yield curve is limited however in post 2002 period macro variables play very crucial role in term structure of interest rate. We found that in.ation and exchange rate are two majar macro variables that determine the shape of yield curve

Kaynakça

  • Ang, Andrew, Piazzesi, Monika. and Wei, M. 2006. What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?, Journal of Econometrics, 131, 359-403.
  • Ang, Andrew., Piazzesi, Monika., 2003. A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables. Journal of Monetary Economics, 50, 745-
  • Bai, J. and Perron, P. (2003). Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural Change Models,
  • Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol.18, pp. 1-22. Chauvet, M. and Potter, S. 2005. "Redicting a recession: evidence from the yield curve in the presence of structural breaks, Economics Letters, 77, 245-253.
  • Dai, Q.; Singleton, K.; 2000. "Specification analysis of affine term structure models", The journal of finance, 55(5), 1943-1978.
  • Diebold, F. X., Rudebusch, G. D., and, Aruoba, S.B. 2006. The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a dynamic latent factor approach, Journal of Econometrics,131, 309-338.
  • Diebold, F.X., Li, C., 2006. Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields. Journal of Econometrics, 130, 337-364.
  • Durmus, D, 2009. Recessions in Turkey Last For 11 Months" published in Denetim Turkey
  • Business Review, July-August. Diboglu, S and Kibritçioğlu, A. 2004. Inflation, output growth, and stabilization in Turkey, 1980– , Journal of Economics and Business 56 , 43–61
  • Estrella, A. 2004. Why does the yield curve predict output and inflation?, Economic Journal, 115, 744.
  • Estrella, A. and Mishkin,. F. S. 1997. The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in
  • Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank, European Economic Review, 41, 1375-1401.
  • Estrella, A., Mishkin, F.S., 1998. Predicting US recessions: financial variables as leading indicators, Review of Economics and Statistics, 80, 45--61.
  • Hördahl, P.; Tristani, O.;Vestin, D.; 2006. A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term strucuture of interest rate, Journal of Econometrics, 131, 405-444.
  • Ivanova, D., Lahiri, K. and Seitz, F. 2000. Interest rate spreads as predictors of German inflation and business cycles, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, 6, 39-58.
  • Mishkin, F. S. 1990. What does the term structure tell us about future inflation? Journal of
  • Monetary Economics, 25, 77--95. Nelson, C.R., Siegel, A.F. 1987. Parsimonious modeling of yield curves. Journal of Business 60, -489.
  • Rudebusch, G.D., Wu, T., 2003. A macro-finance model of the term structure, monetary policy, and the economy. Manuscript, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  • Stock, J.H., and Watson, M.V. 2003. Forecasting output and inflation: The role of asset prices,
  • Journal of Economic Literature, 41, 788-829.
Yıl 2010, Cilt: 2 Sayı: 1, 77 - 85, 01.06.2010

Öz

Kaynakça

  • Ang, Andrew, Piazzesi, Monika. and Wei, M. 2006. What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?, Journal of Econometrics, 131, 359-403.
  • Ang, Andrew., Piazzesi, Monika., 2003. A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables. Journal of Monetary Economics, 50, 745-
  • Bai, J. and Perron, P. (2003). Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural Change Models,
  • Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol.18, pp. 1-22. Chauvet, M. and Potter, S. 2005. "Redicting a recession: evidence from the yield curve in the presence of structural breaks, Economics Letters, 77, 245-253.
  • Dai, Q.; Singleton, K.; 2000. "Specification analysis of affine term structure models", The journal of finance, 55(5), 1943-1978.
  • Diebold, F. X., Rudebusch, G. D., and, Aruoba, S.B. 2006. The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a dynamic latent factor approach, Journal of Econometrics,131, 309-338.
  • Diebold, F.X., Li, C., 2006. Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields. Journal of Econometrics, 130, 337-364.
  • Durmus, D, 2009. Recessions in Turkey Last For 11 Months" published in Denetim Turkey
  • Business Review, July-August. Diboglu, S and Kibritçioğlu, A. 2004. Inflation, output growth, and stabilization in Turkey, 1980– , Journal of Economics and Business 56 , 43–61
  • Estrella, A. 2004. Why does the yield curve predict output and inflation?, Economic Journal, 115, 744.
  • Estrella, A. and Mishkin,. F. S. 1997. The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in
  • Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank, European Economic Review, 41, 1375-1401.
  • Estrella, A., Mishkin, F.S., 1998. Predicting US recessions: financial variables as leading indicators, Review of Economics and Statistics, 80, 45--61.
  • Hördahl, P.; Tristani, O.;Vestin, D.; 2006. A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term strucuture of interest rate, Journal of Econometrics, 131, 405-444.
  • Ivanova, D., Lahiri, K. and Seitz, F. 2000. Interest rate spreads as predictors of German inflation and business cycles, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, 6, 39-58.
  • Mishkin, F. S. 1990. What does the term structure tell us about future inflation? Journal of
  • Monetary Economics, 25, 77--95. Nelson, C.R., Siegel, A.F. 1987. Parsimonious modeling of yield curves. Journal of Business 60, -489.
  • Rudebusch, G.D., Wu, T., 2003. A macro-finance model of the term structure, monetary policy, and the economy. Manuscript, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  • Stock, J.H., and Watson, M.V. 2003. Forecasting output and inflation: The role of asset prices,
  • Journal of Economic Literature, 41, 788-829.
Toplam 20 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Diğer ID JA58SM35YV
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Huseyin Kaya Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Haziran 2010
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2010 Cilt: 2 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Kaya, H. (2010). TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATE AND MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES: THE TURKISH CASE. International Journal of Economics and Finance Studies, 2(1), 77-85.
AMA Kaya H. TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATE AND MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES: THE TURKISH CASE. IJEFS. Haziran 2010;2(1):77-85.
Chicago Kaya, Huseyin. “TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATE AND MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES: THE TURKISH CASE”. International Journal of Economics and Finance Studies 2, sy. 1 (Haziran 2010): 77-85.
EndNote Kaya H (01 Haziran 2010) TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATE AND MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES: THE TURKISH CASE. International Journal of Economics and Finance Studies 2 1 77–85.
IEEE H. Kaya, “TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATE AND MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES: THE TURKISH CASE”, IJEFS, c. 2, sy. 1, ss. 77–85, 2010.
ISNAD Kaya, Huseyin. “TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATE AND MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES: THE TURKISH CASE”. International Journal of Economics and Finance Studies 2/1 (Haziran 2010), 77-85.
JAMA Kaya H. TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATE AND MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES: THE TURKISH CASE. IJEFS. 2010;2:77–85.
MLA Kaya, Huseyin. “TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATE AND MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES: THE TURKISH CASE”. International Journal of Economics and Finance Studies, c. 2, sy. 1, 2010, ss. 77-85.
Vancouver Kaya H. TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATE AND MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES: THE TURKISH CASE. IJEFS. 2010;2(1):77-85.