Assessment of current and future land sensitivity to degradation under climate change in the upstream Ouergha watershed (Morocco) using GIS and AHP method

Abstract

Land degradation is a worldwide phenomenon that negatively affects the topsoil of agricultural land. The Mediterranean region is the hardest hit by this phenomenon, which is set to increase due to climate change. This study aims to assess the susceptibility of land to degradation under climate change, based on the calculation of the Land Degradation Sensitivity Index (LDI) in the upstream Ouergha catchment in in Northern Morocco (Southern Mediterranean), using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and the Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDM) method. In this study, 4 main criteria (climate, vegetation, soil and human environment) divided into 15 sub-criteria were used to assess soil sensitivity to degradation. The weight of each criterion was assigned using the AHP method. The degree of soil degradation was classified on a map based on four categories (low, moderate, high and critical). About 14.9% of land is not very sensitive to degradation, while 37.2% of land is highly sensitive to degradation. Vegetation and climate were identified as the main drivers of land degradation (37% and 28% respectively). Climate scenarios for model EC-Earth3-Veg (CMIP6) indicate a significant drop in precipitation in this region, which accelerates soil degradation. The result represents a planning tool that can help decision-makers to take the necessary measures to ensure sustainable soil management in the face of climate change

Keywords

• Upstream Ouergha basin
• Land degradation
• Climate change
• AHP
• SIG

References

1. .Ladisa, G., Todorovic, M., & Liuzzi, G. T. (2012). A GIS-based approach for desertification risk assessment in Apulia region, SE Italy. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts a/B/C, 49, 103-113. https://doi: 10.1016/j.pce.2011.05.007
2. Kong, Z. H., Stringer, L. C., Paavola, J., and Lu, Q. (2021). Situating China in the global effort to combat desertification. Land, 10(7), 1–22. https://doi: 10.3390/land10070702
3. Ren, Y., Liu, X., Zhang, B., and Chen, X. (2023). Sensitivity Assessment of Land Desertification in China Based on Multi-Source Remote Sensing. Remote Sensing, 15(10). https://doi: 10.3390/rs15102674
4. Morianou, G., Kourgialas, N. N., Pisinaras, V., Psarras, G., & Arambatzis, G. (2021). Assessing desertification sensitivity map under climate change and agricultural practices scenarios: the island of Crete case study. Water Supply, 21(6), 2916-2934. https://doi: 10.2166/ws.2021.132
5. Aboukota, M. E. S., Hassaballa, H., Elhini, M., & Ganzour, S. K. (2024). Land Degradation, Desertification & Environmental Sensitivity to Climate Change in Alexandria and Beheira, Egypt. Egyptian Journal of Soil Science, 64(1), 167–180. https://doi: 10.21608/ejss.2023.237386.1664
6. Adal, Y. M., & Amsalu, G. (2024). GIS-Based Land Use and Land Cover Change Assessment around Assosa District, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia. Advanced Land Management, 4(2), 77-83.
7. Lahlaoi, H., Rhinane, H., Hilali, A., Lahssini, S., & Moukrim, S. (2017). Desertification assessment using MEDALUS model in watershed Oued El Maleh, Morocco. Geosciences, 7(3), 50. https://doi: 10.3390/geosciences7030050
8. Shukla, P. R., Skeg, J., Buendia, E. C., Masson-Delmotte, V., Pörtner, H. O., Roberts, D. C., ... & Malley, J. (2019). Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems..

9. Thomas, D. S. (1997). Science and the desertification debate. Journal of Arid Environments, 37(4), 599-608.
10. Shema, R. A., & Lanhai, L. (2024). A geo-spatial analysis of precipitation distribution and its impacts on vegetation in Rwanda. Advanced GIS, 4(1), 24-30.
11. Sivakumar, M. V. (2007). Interactions between climate and desertification. Agricultural and forest meteorology, 142(2-4), 143-155.
12. Gou, F., Liang, W., Sun, S., Jin, Z., Zhang, W., & Yan, J. (2021). Analysis of the desertification dynamics of sandy lands in Northern China over the period 2000–2017. Geocarto International, 36(17), 1938-1959.
13. Asgarova, M. (2023). The assessment and management of soil fertility using GIS and remote sensing. Advanced Land Management, 3(2), 97-106.
14. Manaye, A., Negash, M., & Alebachew, M. (2019). Effect of degraded land rehabilitation on carbon stocks and biodiversity in semi-arid region of Northern Ethiopia. Forest science and technology, 15(2), 70-79. https://doi: 10.1080/21580103.2019.1592787
15. Elnashar, A., Zeng, H., Wu, B., Gebremicael, T. G., & Marie, K. (2022). Assessment of environmentally sensitive areas to desertification in the Blue Nile Basin driven by the MEDALUS-GEE framework. Science of the Total Environment, 815, 152925. https://doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.152925
16. Omer, F. O., & Rasul, A. (2023). Assessing hydrological modeling approaches: A review of the soil conservation service curve number and the soil and water assessment tool. Advanced GIS, 3(2), 47-52.
17. Katyal, J. C., & Vlek, P. L. (2000). Desertification: concept, causes and amelioration (No. 33). ZEF discussion papers on development policy.
18. Rousset, N., & Arrus, R. (2004). Economie de l'adaptation au changement climatique et agriculture dans le Bassin Méditerranéen. In Environnement et identité en Méditerranée, IVe congrès international, Universita di Corsica Pasquale Paoli, Corte.
19. Donat, M. G., Sillmann, J., Wild, S., Alexander, L. V., Lippmann, T., & Zwiers, F. W. (2014). Consistency of temperature and precipitation extremes across various global gridded in situ and reanalysis datasets. Journal of Climate, 27(13), 5019-5035. https://doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00405.1
20. Filahi, S., Mouhir, L., Tanarhte, M., & Tramblay, Y. (2015). Tendance et variabilité des événements extrêmes au Maroc. In XXVIIIe Colloque de l’Association Internationale de Climatologie, Liège.463–468.
21. Tramblay, Y., El Adlouni, S., & Servat, É. (2013). Trends and variability in extreme precipitation indices over Maghreb countries. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 13(12), 3235-3248. https://doi: 10.5194/nhess-13-3235-2013
22. Ferrara, A. M. S., Bellotti, A., Faretta, S., Mancino, G., & Taberner, M. (1999). Identification and assessment of environmentally sensitive Areas By Remote Sensing. In MEDALUS III-Final Report (Vol. 2, Pp. 397-429). Kıng's College.
23. Hammoudy, W., Ilmen, R., & Sinan, M. (2022). Impact of climate change on extremes events in Morocco. In IOP conference series: earth and environmental science 1090(1). https://doi: 10.1088/1755-1315/1090/1/012034
24. Hammouzaki, Y. (2013). Desertification and its control in Morocco. Combating desertification in Asia, Africa and the middle east: proven practices, 91-111.
25. Lelieveld, J., Proestos, Y., Hadjinicolaou, P., Tanarhte, M., Tyrlis, E., & Zittis, G. (2016). Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century. Climatic Change, 137(1), 245-260. https://doi: 10.1007/s10584-016-1665-6
26. Sowers, J., Vengosh, A., & Weinthal, E. (2011). Climate change, water resources, and the politics of adaptation in the Middle East and North Africa. Climatic Change, 104(3), 599-627.https://doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9835-4
27. Yakar, M., Yilmaz, H. M., & Mutluoglu, O. (2014). Performance of photogrammetric and terrestrial laser scanning methods in volume computing of excavtion and filling areas. Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering, 39, 387-394
28. El Mazi, M., Hmamouchi, M., Saber, E. R., Bouchantouf, S., & Houari, A. (2022). Deforestation effects on soil properties and erosion: a case study in the central Rif, Morocco. Eurasian Journal of Soil Science, 11(4), 275-283. https://doi: 10.18393/ejss.1098600
29. Esper, J., Frank, D., Büntgen, U., Verstege, A., Luterbacher, J., & Xoplaki, E. (2007). Long‐term drought severity variations in Morocco. Geophysical research letters, 34(17). https://doi: 10.1029/2007GL030844.
30. Sebbar, A., Hsaine, M., Fougrach, H., & Badri, W. (2012). Étude des variations climatiques de la région centre du Maroc. Les climats régionaux: observation et modélisation, 709, 309-714.
31. Filahi, S., Tramblay, Y., Mouhir, L., & Diaconescu, E. P. (2017). Projected changes in temperature and precipitation indices in Morocco from high‐resolution regional climate models. International Journal of Climatology, 37(14), 4846-4863.
32. Gumus, V., El Moçayd, N., Seker, M., & Seaid, M. (2024). Future projection of droughts in Morocco and potential impact on agriculture. Journal of Environmental Management, 367, 122019. https://doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.122019
33. Yilmaz, H. M., Yakar, M., Mutluoglu, O., Kavurmaci, M. M., & Yurt, K. (2012). Monitoring of soil erosion in Cappadocia region (Selime-Aksaray-Turkey). Environmental Earth Sciences, 66, 75-81.
34. Kacem, H. A., Fal, S., Karim, M., Alaoui, H. M., Rhinane, H., & Maanan, M. (2021). Application of fuzzy analytical hierarchy process for assessment of desertification sensitive areas in North West of Morocco. Geocarto International, 36(5), 563-580. https://doi: 10.1080/10106049.2019.1611949
35. Ait Lamqadem, A., Pradhan, B., Saber, H., & Rahimi, A. (2018). Desertification sensitivity analysis using MEDALUS model and GIS: a case study of the Oases of Middle Draa Valley, Morocco. Sensors, 18(7), 2230. https://doi: 10.3390/s18072230
36. Coscarelli, R., Caloiero, T., Minervino, I., & Sorriso-Valvo, M. (2016). Sensitivity to desertification of a high productivity area in Southern Italy. Journal of Maps, 12(3), 573-581. https://doi: 10.1080/17445647.2015.1054904
37. Boudjemline, F., & Semar, A. (2018). Assessment and mapping of desertification sensitivity with MEDALUS model and GIS–Case study: basin of Hodna, Algeria. Journal of water and land development. https://doi: 10.2478/jwld-2018-0002
38. Kosmas, C., Tsara, M., Moustakas, N., & Karavitis, C. (2003). Identification of indicators for desertification. Annals of Arid Zone, 42, 393-416.
39. Contador, J. L., Schnabel, S., Gutiérrez, A. G., & Fernandez, M. P. (2009). Mapping sensitivity to land degradation in Extremadura. SW Spain. Land Degradation & Development, 20(2), 129-144. https://doi: 10.1002/ldr.884
40. Kamel, A., Ali, H., Ghaleb, F., Mario, M., & Tony, G. (2015). GIS-based mapping of areas sensitive to desertification in a semi-arid region in Lebanon. South-Eastern European Journal of Earth Observation and Geomatics, 4, 91-103.
41. Maurer, G. (1968). Les montagnes du Rif central : étude géomorphologique.
42. Obda, K. (1991). Etude hydrologique de l’oued Nekor (Rif): précipitations, écoulement et gestion des ressources en eau (Doctoral dissertation, Nancy 2).
43. Janati Idrissi, A. (2010). Situations pluviometriques extremes et impacts engendres au maroc: cas de l’annee 2008–2009. Geomaghreb, 6, 105-119.
44. Boutallaka, M., El Mazi, M., Ben-Brahim, Y., & Houari, A. (2023). Mapping the sensitivity of land degradation in the Ouergha catchment (Morocco) using the MEDALUS approach. Eurasian Journal of Soil Science, 12(3), 257-266. https://doi: 10.18393/ejss.1276119
45. Bouabid, R., Rouchdi, M., Badraoui, M., Diab, A., & Louafi, S. (2010). Assessment of land desertification based on the MEDALUS approach and elaboration of an action plan: The case study of the Souss River Basin, Morocco. Land degradation and desertification: Assessment, mitigation and remediation, 131-145.
46. Yakar, M., & Dogan, Y. (2019). 3D Reconstruction of Residential Areas with SfM Photogrammetry. In Advances in Remote Sensing and Geo Informatics Applications: Proceedings of the 1st Springer Conference of the Arabian Journal of Geosciences (CAJG-1), Tunisia 2018 (pp. 73-75). Springer International Publishing..
47. Güvendi, Ş., & Şişman, A. (2022). Forest fire risk analysis using GIS; Example of Geyve. Advanced Land Management, 2(1), 13-20.
48. Kaya, E. (2023). Evaluation of bioclimatic comfort area with heat index: A case study of Kocaeli. International Journal of Engineering and Geosciences, 8(1), 19-25. https://doi: 10.26833/ijeg.988452
49. Salvati, L., Zitti, M., & Perini, L. (2016). Fifty years on: long‐term patterns of land sensitivity to desertification in Italy. Land degradation & development, 27(2), 97-107.
50. Mokhtari, N., Bouabid, R., Bock, L., & Paul, R. (2013). Application of approach MEDALUS for assessing desertification sensitivity of moulouya watershed, Morocco. Sci Ed Mersenne, 5, 131107.
51. Chaker, M., Laouina, A., & El Marbouh, M. (2013). Changement agropastoral et dégradation des terres dans le plateau Sehoul. Gestion durable des terres, 85.
52. Eekhout, J. P., & de Vente, J. (2022). Global impact of climate change on soil erosion and potential for adaptation through soil conservation. Earth-Science Reviews, 226, 103921. https://doi: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.103921
53. Saaty, T. L. (1977). A scaling method for priorities in hierarchical structures. Journal of mathematical psychology, 15(3), 234-281. https://doi: 10.1016/0022-2496(77)90033-5
54. Saaty, T. L., & Vargas, L. G. (2012). The possibility of group choice: pairwise comparisons and merging functions. Social Choice and Welfare, 38(3), 481-496. https://doi: 10.1007/s00355-011-0541-6
55. Pandian, R. S., & Sıdesh, U. (2023). Identification of groundwater potential for urban development using multi-criteria decision-making method of analytical hierarchy process. International Journal of Engineering and Geosciences, 8(3), 318-328. https://doi: 10.26833/ijeg.1190998
56. Boutallaka, M., El Mazi, M., El Yazidi, M., El Hairchi, K., & Benabdelhadi, M. (2024). Evolution of bioclimatic stages under climate change in the Ouergha Catchment (Northern Morocco). In BIO Web of Conferences (Vol. 115, p. 03002). EDP Sciences. https://doi: 10.1051/bioconf/202411503002
57. Tribak, A., Baena-Escudero, R., Guerrero-Amador, I. C., Amhani, Z., Abahrour, M., Garouani, A. E., & Arari, K. (2021). Land use and hydric erosion assessment in a Mediterranean mountain environment: case of Wadi ourtza sub-basin (Eastern-prerif, Morocco). https://doi: 10.14198/INGEO.18851
58. Al Karkouri, J. (2017). Les milieux montagneux marocains à l’épreuve du changement climatique (cas de la montagne rifaine). Hespéris-Tamuda, 52(1), 237-267.
59. Arrebei, N., Sabir, M., Naimi, M., Chikhaoui, M., & Raclot, D. (2020). Assessment of soil erosion with RUSLE 3D and USPED in the Nekor Watershed (Northern Morocco). Open Journal of Soil Science, 10(12), 631-642. https://doi: 10.4236/ojss.2020.1012031
60. Sippel, S., Zscheischler, J., Mahecha, M. D., Orth, R., Reichstein, M., Vogel, M., & Seneviratne, S. I. (2017). Refining multi-model projections of temperature extremes by evaluation against land–atmosphere coupling diagnostics. Earth System Dynamics, 8(2), 387-403. https://doi: 10.5194/esd-8-387-2017
61. El-Bouhali, A., Amyay, M., & Ech-Chahdi, K. E. O. (2024). Changes in water surface area of the Middle Atlas-Morocco lakes: A response to climate and human effects. International Journal of Engineering and Geosciences, 9(2), 221-232. https://doi.org/10.26833/ijeg.1391957
62. Meliho, M., Orlando, C. A., & Dallahi, Y. (2024). Spatiotemporal modeling of the potential impact of climate change on shifts in bioclimatic zones in Morocco. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 196(10), 907.https://doi: 10.1007/s10661-024-13077-0
63. Bammou, Y., Benzougagh, B., Bensaid, A., Igmoullan, B., & Al-Quraishi, A. M. F. (2024). Mapping of current and future soil erosion risk in a semi-arid context (haouz plain-Marrakech) based on CMIP6 climate models, the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and RUSLE. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 10(1), 1501-1514.. https://doi: 10.1007/s40808-023-01845-9