Spatially explicit modeling of road icing susceptibility using GIS and a multi-criteria decision approach: A case study of Gümüşhane city (Türkiye)

Year 2026, Volume: 11 Issue: 2, 454 - 466, 16.12.2025

Fatih Işık , Rabia Kanyılmaz , Savaş Çağlak , Selim Eraslan , Halil İbrahim Zeybek

https://doi.org/10.26833/ijeg.1777524

Abstract

This study develops and validates a GIS-based, spatio-temporal model to identify and prioritize road segments with high icing susceptibility in the Gümüşhane city center, Türkiye. Icing on urban roadways constitutes a significant threat to vehicular and pedestrian safety, particularly in regions characterized by complex topography and dense urban morphology. A Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework, employing the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) with structured expert input, was used to synthesize ten primary causative factors. These include solar radiation, temperature, aspect, object height, precipitation, elevation, pavement material, slope, albedo, and road width — each representing a distinct topographic, climatic, or morphological influence on urban road icing. The AHP quantitatively established the relative influence of these factors, identifying solar radiation (28.5%), temperature (18.2%), and aspect (13.5%) as the most dominant drivers. The model generates monthly susceptibility maps that reveal "urban canyons"—narrow streets flanked by high-rise buildings—consistently exhibit the highest and most persistent susceptibility due to severely limited solar radiation. The accuracy of the model's spatial predictions was quantitatively validated through field observations, with 91.4% of recurring icing locations correctly identified within high or very high susceptibility zones. This research culminates not only in a robust scientific framework but also in a validated decision-support tool that has been successfully integrated into the Gümüşhane City Information System (GCIS), where it is now operationally used to optimize winter maintenance strategies. Ultimately, this work provides a replicable, data-driven approach for enhancing urban resilience and traffic safety in challenging topographical settings.

Keywords

Icing Susceptibility , Urban Canyon , GIS , AHP

Ethical Statement

This study is based on geospatial and publicly available meteorological data and does not involve any human participants or animal subjects. Therefore, ethical committee approval was not required. The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Supporting Institution

The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Türkiye (TÜBİTAK)

Project Number

1919B012220428

Thanks

This work was supported by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Türkiye (TÜBİTAK) through the 2209-A University Students Research Projects Support Program (Grant number: 1919B012220428). The authors would also like to express their gratitude to the General Command of Mapping (HGM) and the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) for providing the essential geospatial and meteorological data that made this study possible.

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