Assessing Future Water Potentials in a Semi-Arid Basin: A SWAT-Based Climate Change Study in the Upper Kızılırmak

Year 2025, Volume: 12 Issue: 4, 452 - 470, 12.01.2026

Sefa Furkan Selçuk , Meltem Cebeci

https://doi.org/10.26650/ijegeo.1789228

Abstract

This study aims to determine the current water potential in the Upper Kızılırmak Basin and to examine the changes in basin water potential under climate change scenarios. For this purpose, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used in the study. Basin water potential was evaluated through the parameters of precipitation, blue water potential, green water storage, and green water flow potential. In the optimistic climate scenario (SSP2), a decrease in precipitation values in the basin is predicted to range from an 8.4% decrease to a 1.8% increase. In the pessimistic scenario (SSP5), a decrease of up to 12% is predicted. These changes are critical for the development of sustainable water resource management, agricultural productivity, and climate change adaptation strategies. The findings show remarkable spatial and temporal changes in blue and green water potential. The need for water management that is consistent with climate change predictions and unaffected by expected changes in water availability is emphasized. By performing hydrological modeling, the study provides a prediction of how the region's water resources may change under future climate change scenarios and provides fundamental scientific data for local administrators. The research advances the discussion on hydrological modeling, which aims to analyze the impacts of climate change.

Keywords

SWAT , Climate Change , Upper Kızılırmak Basin , Water Potential , Blue Water , Green Water

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