Potential Changes in Suitable Habitats of Prunus laurocerasus in Türkiye under the Impacts of Global Climate Change

Abstract

Global climate change is defined as a largely irreversible process driven predominantly by anthropogenic factors. This phenomenon, which is emphasized to have particularly destructive impacts on plants, necessitates the identification of changes in suitable habitats of species in order to take the necessary preventive measures. In this study, potential changes in the suitable habitats of Prunus laurocerasus L.—an important species for agricultural, landscaping, and forestry practices in Türkiye—were determined using the Random Forest (RF) model. Within the scope of the study, the species’ suitable distribution areas were evaluated by SSPs245 and SSPs 585 climate scenarios. The results indicate that, by the year 2100, the potential habitat of P. laurocerasus will increase by approximately 19.52% by the SSPs245 scenario and by 18.67% under the SSPs 585 scenario compared to its current distribution. However, as the relocation of the species to newly emerging suitable habitats is considered unlikely, population losses are deemed inevitablehe first letter of the “abstract” word should be written in capital letters (Abstract), and the font size should be 10 pt. Abstract font size should be 9pt. Abstract should be between 150-300 words and should not contain any undefined abbreviations or unspecified references. The summary should include information about the method, purpose, findings, results and discussion of the research. Keywords, font size should be 9pt. Three to six key words should be listed below the abstract. A comma is used among keywords. Please read all information given in this template carefully before start typing. Please use this document as a template. It can also be taken as an example from the previous issues of IJEGEO. Authors should get ORCID ID (https://orcid.org/register) before submitting their manuscripts. The entire editorial workflow is performed using the Dergipark Online Manuscript Tracking System. Once a manuscript is submitted, it is assessed by the editor for suitability for the journal. Papers deemed suitable will be peer-reviewed by at least two reviewers. As part of the submission process, authors are required to check off their submission’s compliance with all of the following items, and submissions may be returned to authors that do not adhere to these guidelines. Please read and follow these instructions carefully; doing so will ensure that the publication of your manuscript is as rapid and efficient as possible. The Publisher reserves the right to return manuscripts that are not prepared in accordance with these instructions.

Keywords

• Global climate change
• Prunus laurocerasus
• RF model

Türkiye’de Karayemiş (Prunus laurocerasus) Uygun Yayılış Alanlarının Küresel İklim Değişikliğinin Etkilerine Bağlı Olarak Olası Değişimi

Abstract

Küresel iklim değişikliği, büyük ölçüde geri döndürülemez bir süreç olarak tanımlanmakta olup, ağırlıklı olarak insan kaynaklı faktörlerden kaynaklanmaktadır. Bitkiler üzerinde özellikle yıkıcı etkileri olduğu vurgulanan bu olgu, türlerin uygun yaşam alanlarındaki değişimlerin belirlenmesini ve buna bağlı olarak gerekli önleyici tedbirlerin alınmasını zorunlu kılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de tarım, peyzaj ve ormancılık uygulamaları açısından önemli bir tür olan Prunus laurocerasus L.’nin uygun yaşam alanlarındaki potansiyel değişimler, Random Forest (RF) modeli kullanılarak belirlenmiştir. Çalışma kapsamında, türün uygun dağılım alanları SSPs245 ve SSPs585 iklim senaryolarına göre değerlendirilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre, 2100 yılı itibarıyla P. laurocerasus’un potansiyel yaşam alanlarının, mevcut dağılımına kıyasla SSPs245 senaryosuna göre yaklaşık %19,52, SSPs585 senaryosuna göre ise %18,67 oranında artacağı öngörülmektedir. Ancak, türün yeni oluşacak uygun yaşam alanlarına taşınmasının olası görülmemesi nedeniyle popülasyon kayıplarının kaçınılmaz olacağı düşünülmektedir.

Keywords

• Küresel iklim değişikliği
• Karayemiş
• RF modeli

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