Investigation of Climate Change Impact on Salt Lake by Statistical Methods

Abstract

The main purpose of this paper is to investigate climate change impact that have been occurred on Salt Lake located in the central Anatolia is one of the area that has been faced to extinction. In order to monitor current status of the Salt Lake, Landsat satellite images has been obtained between the year of 2000 and 2014 (for the months of February, May, August and November). Satellite images has been processed by using ArcGIS and ERDAS softwares and the water surface area has been determined. The time series of water surface areas has been analyzed with auto-correlation method and repeated pattern has been detected. The seasonal part of the time series which period is 1 year and causes about 400 km² fluctuations has been removed with Moving Average filter, successfully. As a result of filtration process, non-seasonal time series of water surface area of Salt Lake were obtained. It is understood from the non-seasonal time series that the water surface area showed variability between 2000 and 2010 and after 2010 it is stable until 2014. In order to explain the variability, meteorological data (precipitation and temperature) of the surrounding area has been acquired from the related service. The cross-correlation analyses has been performed with the movement of the water surface area and meteorological time series. As a result of analysis, the relationship between water surface changes in Salt Lake and meteorological data have correlated up to 80%. Consequently, several conclusion have been detected that the topography of the region play a direct role of the correlation coefficients and the water surface changes are effected from the environmental events that is occurred in the south of Salt Lake sub-Basin.

Keywords

• Salt Lake,Climate Change,Shrinkage of lake,Correlation Analysis

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