THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ENERGY PRICES AND MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES: EVIDENCE FROM OIL- IMPORTER TURKEY AND OIL-EXPORTER RUSSIA

Abstract

For a country, energy is one of the most important inputs in terms of economic and social development. Therefore, it is extremely important to have a sustainable energy policy and to ensure price stability in a market environment. In this context, this study examines the impact of oil price changes on inflation and industrial production for a net oil importer country and net oil exporter country by dependency relationship between Turkey and Russia. The impact of energy price changes is analysed for Turkey and Russia for the period 1995:012014:12 with monthly data by using the SVAR method. The findings suggest that energy price changes affect inflation and industrial production in both countries

Keywords

• Energy Prices,Economic Activity,Structural Vector Autoregression SVAR

ENERJİ FİYATLARI İLE MAKROEKONOMİK DEĞİŞKENLER ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ: PETROL İTHALATÇISI TÜRKİYE VE PETROL İHRACATÇISI RUSYA’DAN KANITLAR

Öz

Bir ülke için ekonomik ve sosyal kalkınma anlamında enerji en önemli girdilerden birini oluşturmaktadır. Dolayısıyla enerji politikalarının sürdürülebilir olması ve fiyat istikrarının sağlandığı bir piyasa ortamında gerçekleştirilmesi son derece önem arz etmektedir. Bu doğrultuda bu çalışmada, Türkiye ve Rusya arasındaki enerji bağımlılığı ilişkisinden hareketle; net ithalatçı bir ülke ile net ihracatçı bir ülke için enerji fiyat değişimlerinin enflasyon ve sanayi üretimi üzerindeki etkisi incelenmektedir. Net ithalatçı Türkiye ile net ihracatçı Rusya açısından enerji fiyat değişimlerinin etkisi 1995:01-2014:12 dönemini kapsayan aylık veriler kullanılarak SVAR yöntemi ile analiz edilmiştir. Analiz sonucunda, enerji fiyat değişimlerinin enflasyon ve sanayi üretimi üzerinde her iki ülke için etkili olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Enerji Fiyatları,Ekonomik Aktivite,Yapısal VAR

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