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THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN OIL PRICES, EXPORT AND REAL EXCHANGE RATE IN TURKEY: BOUNDS TESTING APPROACH AND ANALYSIS OF DYNAMIC CAUSALITY

Yıl 2013, , 1 - 30, 01.05.2013
https://doi.org/10.11122/ijmeb.2013.9.19.459

Öz

This paper aims to estimate export for Turkey function by using export, real oil prices, real exchange rate, foreign real income and relative export price applying ARDL methodology and Granger causality tests by using quarterly data for the period 1987-2010. The results suggest that there is a long-run relationship between export and its determinants. In the long run, a one percent increase in real foreign income leads to a 5.93 percent improvement in export, while a one percent increase in real exchange rate deteriorates 0.61 percent in export. Relative export price is not found statistically significant in the long run. The effect of the real price of oil on export is estimated to be positive and statistically significant with an elasticity of 0.22. This results implies that exports do not suffer from the increase in the price of oil for examined period. The result of Granger causality indicates that there is a bidirectional causality between oil prices-relative export price and foreign real income-export which infers that Turkey’s export is more sensitive to external economic developments

Kaynakça

  • Acar, O. (2009). Türkiye’de dış ticaret ve dış ticaretin finansmanı durum değerlendirmesi. http://www.tepav.org.tr/tur/admin/dosyabul/upload/TR-TEPAV- Ticaretin%20Finansmani%20Raporu.pdf. Tarihi: 11.05.2013
  • Ahmed, V. & Donoghue, C. (2010). External shocks in a small open economy: A CGE microsimulation analysis. Lahore Journal of Economics, 15(1), 45-90.
  • Anam Hassan, S. & Zaman, K. (2012). Effect of oil prices on trade balance: New insights into the cointegration relationship from Pakistan. Economic Modelling, 29, 2125–2143.
  • Prasad, A., Narayan P. K. & Narayan J. (2007). Exploring the oil price and real gdp nexus for a small island economy the fiji islands. Energy Policy, 35, 6506-6513.
  • Balke, N. S., Brown, S. P. & Yücel, M. K. (2002). Oil price shocks and the us economy: where does the asymmetry originate? The Energy Journal, 23(3), 27-52.
  • Barsky, R. & Kilian, L. (2004). Oil and the macroeconomy since the 1970s. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(4), 115-134.
  • Belkar, R., Cockerell, L. & Kent, C. (2007). Current Account Deficits: The Australian Debate. http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2007/pdf/rdp2007-02.pdf2007 Tarihi: 16.04.2013
  • Bernanke, B. S., Gertler, M. & Watson, M. (1997). Systematic monetary policy and the effects of oil price shocks. Brooking Papers on Economic Activity, 1.
  • Blanchard, O. & Gali, J. (2007). The macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks: Why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s. NBER Working paper, 13368.
  • Bohi, D. (1989). Energy price shocks and macroeconomic performance, resources for the future. Washington, DC.
  • Brown, S. P. & Yücel, M. K. (2002). Energy prices and aggregate economic activity: an interpretative survey. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 42(2), 193-208.
  • Bruno, M. & Sach, J. (1982). Input price shocks and the slowdown in economic growth: The case of UK manufacturing. Review of Economic Studies, XLIX, 679-705.
  • Burbidge, J. & Harrison, A. (1984). Testing for the effects of oil-price rises using vector autoregressions. International Economic Review, 25(2), 459-484.
  • Chaudhuri, K. & Daniel, B. C. (1998). Long-run equilibrium real exchange rates and oil prices. Economics Letters, 58(2), 231-238.
  • Chen, S. S. & Hsu, K. W. (2012). Reverse globalization: Does high oil price volatility discourage international trade? Energy Economics, 34(5), 1634–1643.
  • Cologni, A. & Manera, M. (2008). Oil prices, inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated var model for the g-7 countries. Energy Economics, 30, 856–888.
  • Cunadao, J. & Gracia, F. P. (2005). Oil prices, economic activity and inflation evidence for some Asian countries. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 45, 65–83.
  • Darby, M. (1982). The price of oil and world inflation and recession. The American Economic Review, 72(4), 738-751.
  • Dickey, D. A. & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-72.
  • Dickey, D. A. & Fuller W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Society, 74, 427- 431.
  • Dolado, J. & Lutkepohl, H. S. (1996). Making wald tests for cointegrated var systems. Econometric Reviews, 15(4), 369-386.
  • Doroodian, K. & Boyd, R. (2002). The linkage between oil price shocks and economic growth with inflation in the presence of technological advances: A CGE model. Energy Policy (31), 1989–1006.
  • Egeli H. A. (1992). Türkiye’de 1980 sonrası dönemde ihracatın gelişimi ve Türkiye’de 1980 sonrası dönemde ihracatın gelişimi. D.E.Ü. İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 7(2), 115-121.
  • Ekonomi Bakanlığı, (2012). Hazır giyim sektörü raporu. İhracat Genel Müdürlüğü. Erişim http://www.ibp.gov.tr/pg/sektorpdf/sanayi/hazirgiyim_2012.pdf Tarihi: 01.05.2013
  • Elektrik Üreticileri Derneği, (2013). Enerji ithalatı için 40 milyar dolar ödedik. Erişim Tarihi: http://www.eud.org.tr/TR/Genel/BelgeGoster.aspx?F6E10F8892433CFFAAF6A A849816B2EF2BD1C92DB6F52C54 19.04.2013
  • Engle R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica, 55, 251–76.
  • Faria, J. R., Mollick, A. V., Albuquerque, P. H. & Leon-Ledesma M. A. (2009). The effect of oil price on china's export. China Economic Review, 20, 793–805
  • Ferderer, J. P. (1996). Oil price volatility and macroeconomy. Journal of Macroeconomics, 18(1), 1-26.
  • Gisser, M. & Goodwin, T. H. (1986). Crude oil and the macroeconomy: Tests of some popular nations. Money, Credit and Banking, 18(1), 95-103.
  • Granger, C. & Newbold, P. (1974). Spurious regressions in econometric. Journal of Econometrics, 2, 111-120.
  • Hamilton, J.D., (1983) Oil and The Macroeconomy Since World War II. Journal of Political Economy, 91, 228–248.
  • Hamilton, J. D. (1985). Historical causes of postwar oil shocks and recessions. Energy Journal, 6, 97–116.
  • Hamilton J. D. (1988). Are the macroeconomic effects of oil-price change symmetric? A comment. Carnegie Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 28, 369– 378.
  • Hamilton, J. D. (1996). This is what happened to the oil price–macroeconomy relationship? Journal of Monetary Economics, 38, 195–213.
  • Hamilton J. D. (2003). What is an oil shock? Journal of Econometrics, 113(2), 363-398.
  • Hooker, M. A. (1996). What Happened To The Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship? Journal of Monetary Economics, 38(2), 195-212.
  • Hooker, M. A. (2002). Are oil shocks inflationary? Asymmetric and nonlinear specifications versus changes in regime. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 34(2), 541-561.
  • Huang, Y. & Guo, F. (2007). The role of oil price shocks on china's real exchange rate. China Economic Review, 18, 403-416.
  • Jbir, R. & S. Z. Ghorbel, (2009). Recent oil price shock and Tunisian economy. Energy Policy, 37, 1041–1051.
  • Jimenez-Rodriguez, R & Sanchez, M. (2005). Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries. Applied Economics, 37(2), 201–
  • Johansen, S. & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration - with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169-210.
  • Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231-254.
  • Kooros, S. K., Sussan, A. P. & Semetesy, M. (2006). The impact of oil prices on employment. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 6(5),136-154.
  • Korhonen, L.A, & Ledyaeva, S. (2010).Trade linkages and macroeconomic effects of the price of oil. Energy Economics, 32, 848–856.
  • Krugman, P. (1980). Oil and the dollar. NBER Working, 554.
  • Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C. B., Schmidt, P. & Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the null of stationary against the alternative of a unit root: How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root? Journal of Econometrics, 54, 159–178.
  • Lee, K., N., S. & Ratti, R., (1995). Oil shocks and the macroeconomy: The role of price variability. Energy Journal, 16, 39–56.
  • Lutkepohl, H. (1993). Introduction to multiple time series analysis. New York: Springer-Verlag.
  • Malik, A. (2008). Crude oil price, monetary policy and output: case of Pakistan. The Pakistan Development Review, 47(4), 425–436.
  • Mork, K. A. (1989). Oil and the macroeconomy when prices go up and down: an extension of Hamilton’s result. Journal of Political Economy, 91, 740-744.
  • Mory, J. F. (1993). Oil prices and economic activity: is the relationship symmetric? The Energy Journal, 14(4), 151–161.
  • Mussa, M. (2000). The Impact of Higher Oil Prices on the Global Economy. Research Department. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/oil/2000/oilrep.PDF Erişim Tarihi: 19.04.2013
  • Narayan, P. K. & Narayan S. (2005). Estimating income and price elasticities of imports for Fiji in a cointegration framework. Economic Modelling, 22(3), 423–438.
  • Narayan, P. K. (2005). The savings and investment nexus for China: Evidence from cointegration test. Applied Economics, 1979–1990.
  • Oladosu, G. (2009). Identifying the oil price–macroeconomy relationship: An empirical mode decomposition analysis of US data. Energy Policy, 37, 5417–5426
  • Otto, G. (2003). Can an intertemporal model explain austria's current account deficit? The Australian Economic Review, 36(3), 350–359.
  • Peker, O. (2007). Reel döviz kurunun dış ticaret dengesi üzerindeki kısa ve uzun dönem etkilerinin ekonometrik analizi: Türkiye örneği. 8. Türkiye Ekonometri ve İstatistik Kongresi, İnönü Üniversitesi, İnönü Üniversitesi. Erişim Tarihi: 15.04.2013, http://web.inonu.edu.tr/~eisemp8/bildiri-pdf/peker.pdf
  • Peron, P. (1989). The Great crash, the oil price shock and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica, 57, 1361-1401.
  • Pesaran, H. & Shin Y. (1995). An autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis. In S. Strom, A. Holly & A. Diamond (Eds.). Centennial Volume of Ranger Frisch. Cambridge University Press.
  • Pesaran, H., Y. Shin & R. J. Smith (2001). Bound testing approaches to the analysis of long run relationship. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
  • Phillips, P. C. B. & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75, 335–346.
  • Pierce, J. P. & Enzler, J. J. (1974). The effects of external inflationary shocks, brookings. Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 13-61.
  • Rambaldi, A. N. & Doran H. E. (1996). “Testing for Granger non-causality in cointegrated systems made easy. Working Papers in Econometrics and Applied Statistics 88, Department of Econometrics, The University of New England.
  • Rasche, R H. & Tatom, J. A. (1981). Energy price shocks, aggregate supply, and monetary policy: the theory and international evidence. In Brunner, K., Meltzer, A. H. (Eds.). Supply shocks, incentives, and national wealthy. Carnegie- Rochester conference Series on Public Polic. Amesterdam: North-Holland.
  • Rautava, J. (2004). The role of oil prices and the real exchange rate in russia's economy -a cointegration approach. Journal of Comparative Economics, 32, 315–327.
  • Romer, C. D. & Romer, D. H. (1989). Does monetary policy matter? A new test in the spirit of Friedman and Schwartz. NBER Macroeconomics Annual.
  • Segal, P. (2007). Why do oil price shocks no longer shock? Oxford Institute for energysimulation analysis. The Lahore Journal of Economics, 15(1), 45–90.
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Türkiye’de Petrol Fiyatları, İhracat ve Reel Döviz Kuru İlişkisi: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı ve Dinamik Nedensellik Analizi

Yıl 2013, , 1 - 30, 01.05.2013
https://doi.org/10.11122/ijmeb.2013.9.19.459

Öz

Bu çalışma, 1987-2010 dönemi üç aylık verileriyle ihracat, yurtdışı reel gelir, reel döviz kuru, reel petrol fiyatları ve nispi ihracat fiyatı değişkenleri kullanılarak ARDL yöntemi ve nedensellik testleriyle Türkiye’nin ihracat fonksiyonunu tahmin etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Tahmin sonucunda ihracat ve belirleyicileri arasında uzun dönemde bir ilişkinin olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Uzun dönemde yurtdışı reel gelirdeki yüzde 1 artışın ihracatta yüzde 5.93’lük iyileşmeye, reel döviz kurundaki yüzde 1’lik artışın ihracatta yüzde 0.61’lik bir kötüleşmeye neden olmaktadır. Nispi ihracat fiyatı uzun dönemde anlamlı bulunmamıştır. Reel petrol fiyatının ihracat üzerindeki etkisini gösteren esneklik değeri 0.22 pozitif ve anlamlı bulunmuştur. Bu sonuç incelenen dönemde petrol fiyatındaki artıştan ihracatın zarar görmediğini göstermiştir. Granger nedensellik sonuçları petrol fiyatı-nispi ihracat fiyatı ve yurtdışı reel gelir-ihracat arasında iki yönlü nedensellik olduğunu göstermiş ve böylece Türkiye’de ihracatın dışsal ekonomik gelişmelere daha duyarlı olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Kaynakça

  • Acar, O. (2009). Türkiye’de dış ticaret ve dış ticaretin finansmanı durum değerlendirmesi. http://www.tepav.org.tr/tur/admin/dosyabul/upload/TR-TEPAV- Ticaretin%20Finansmani%20Raporu.pdf. Tarihi: 11.05.2013
  • Ahmed, V. & Donoghue, C. (2010). External shocks in a small open economy: A CGE microsimulation analysis. Lahore Journal of Economics, 15(1), 45-90.
  • Anam Hassan, S. & Zaman, K. (2012). Effect of oil prices on trade balance: New insights into the cointegration relationship from Pakistan. Economic Modelling, 29, 2125–2143.
  • Prasad, A., Narayan P. K. & Narayan J. (2007). Exploring the oil price and real gdp nexus for a small island economy the fiji islands. Energy Policy, 35, 6506-6513.
  • Balke, N. S., Brown, S. P. & Yücel, M. K. (2002). Oil price shocks and the us economy: where does the asymmetry originate? The Energy Journal, 23(3), 27-52.
  • Barsky, R. & Kilian, L. (2004). Oil and the macroeconomy since the 1970s. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(4), 115-134.
  • Belkar, R., Cockerell, L. & Kent, C. (2007). Current Account Deficits: The Australian Debate. http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2007/pdf/rdp2007-02.pdf2007 Tarihi: 16.04.2013
  • Bernanke, B. S., Gertler, M. & Watson, M. (1997). Systematic monetary policy and the effects of oil price shocks. Brooking Papers on Economic Activity, 1.
  • Blanchard, O. & Gali, J. (2007). The macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks: Why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s. NBER Working paper, 13368.
  • Bohi, D. (1989). Energy price shocks and macroeconomic performance, resources for the future. Washington, DC.
  • Brown, S. P. & Yücel, M. K. (2002). Energy prices and aggregate economic activity: an interpretative survey. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 42(2), 193-208.
  • Bruno, M. & Sach, J. (1982). Input price shocks and the slowdown in economic growth: The case of UK manufacturing. Review of Economic Studies, XLIX, 679-705.
  • Burbidge, J. & Harrison, A. (1984). Testing for the effects of oil-price rises using vector autoregressions. International Economic Review, 25(2), 459-484.
  • Chaudhuri, K. & Daniel, B. C. (1998). Long-run equilibrium real exchange rates and oil prices. Economics Letters, 58(2), 231-238.
  • Chen, S. S. & Hsu, K. W. (2012). Reverse globalization: Does high oil price volatility discourage international trade? Energy Economics, 34(5), 1634–1643.
  • Cologni, A. & Manera, M. (2008). Oil prices, inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated var model for the g-7 countries. Energy Economics, 30, 856–888.
  • Cunadao, J. & Gracia, F. P. (2005). Oil prices, economic activity and inflation evidence for some Asian countries. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 45, 65–83.
  • Darby, M. (1982). The price of oil and world inflation and recession. The American Economic Review, 72(4), 738-751.
  • Dickey, D. A. & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-72.
  • Dickey, D. A. & Fuller W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Society, 74, 427- 431.
  • Dolado, J. & Lutkepohl, H. S. (1996). Making wald tests for cointegrated var systems. Econometric Reviews, 15(4), 369-386.
  • Doroodian, K. & Boyd, R. (2002). The linkage between oil price shocks and economic growth with inflation in the presence of technological advances: A CGE model. Energy Policy (31), 1989–1006.
  • Egeli H. A. (1992). Türkiye’de 1980 sonrası dönemde ihracatın gelişimi ve Türkiye’de 1980 sonrası dönemde ihracatın gelişimi. D.E.Ü. İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 7(2), 115-121.
  • Ekonomi Bakanlığı, (2012). Hazır giyim sektörü raporu. İhracat Genel Müdürlüğü. Erişim http://www.ibp.gov.tr/pg/sektorpdf/sanayi/hazirgiyim_2012.pdf Tarihi: 01.05.2013
  • Elektrik Üreticileri Derneği, (2013). Enerji ithalatı için 40 milyar dolar ödedik. Erişim Tarihi: http://www.eud.org.tr/TR/Genel/BelgeGoster.aspx?F6E10F8892433CFFAAF6A A849816B2EF2BD1C92DB6F52C54 19.04.2013
  • Engle R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica, 55, 251–76.
  • Faria, J. R., Mollick, A. V., Albuquerque, P. H. & Leon-Ledesma M. A. (2009). The effect of oil price on china's export. China Economic Review, 20, 793–805
  • Ferderer, J. P. (1996). Oil price volatility and macroeconomy. Journal of Macroeconomics, 18(1), 1-26.
  • Gisser, M. & Goodwin, T. H. (1986). Crude oil and the macroeconomy: Tests of some popular nations. Money, Credit and Banking, 18(1), 95-103.
  • Granger, C. & Newbold, P. (1974). Spurious regressions in econometric. Journal of Econometrics, 2, 111-120.
  • Hamilton, J.D., (1983) Oil and The Macroeconomy Since World War II. Journal of Political Economy, 91, 228–248.
  • Hamilton, J. D. (1985). Historical causes of postwar oil shocks and recessions. Energy Journal, 6, 97–116.
  • Hamilton J. D. (1988). Are the macroeconomic effects of oil-price change symmetric? A comment. Carnegie Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 28, 369– 378.
  • Hamilton, J. D. (1996). This is what happened to the oil price–macroeconomy relationship? Journal of Monetary Economics, 38, 195–213.
  • Hamilton J. D. (2003). What is an oil shock? Journal of Econometrics, 113(2), 363-398.
  • Hooker, M. A. (1996). What Happened To The Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship? Journal of Monetary Economics, 38(2), 195-212.
  • Hooker, M. A. (2002). Are oil shocks inflationary? Asymmetric and nonlinear specifications versus changes in regime. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 34(2), 541-561.
  • Huang, Y. & Guo, F. (2007). The role of oil price shocks on china's real exchange rate. China Economic Review, 18, 403-416.
  • Jbir, R. & S. Z. Ghorbel, (2009). Recent oil price shock and Tunisian economy. Energy Policy, 37, 1041–1051.
  • Jimenez-Rodriguez, R & Sanchez, M. (2005). Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries. Applied Economics, 37(2), 201–
  • Johansen, S. & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration - with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169-210.
  • Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231-254.
  • Kooros, S. K., Sussan, A. P. & Semetesy, M. (2006). The impact of oil prices on employment. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 6(5),136-154.
  • Korhonen, L.A, & Ledyaeva, S. (2010).Trade linkages and macroeconomic effects of the price of oil. Energy Economics, 32, 848–856.
  • Krugman, P. (1980). Oil and the dollar. NBER Working, 554.
  • Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C. B., Schmidt, P. & Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the null of stationary against the alternative of a unit root: How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root? Journal of Econometrics, 54, 159–178.
  • Lee, K., N., S. & Ratti, R., (1995). Oil shocks and the macroeconomy: The role of price variability. Energy Journal, 16, 39–56.
  • Lutkepohl, H. (1993). Introduction to multiple time series analysis. New York: Springer-Verlag.
  • Malik, A. (2008). Crude oil price, monetary policy and output: case of Pakistan. The Pakistan Development Review, 47(4), 425–436.
  • Mork, K. A. (1989). Oil and the macroeconomy when prices go up and down: an extension of Hamilton’s result. Journal of Political Economy, 91, 740-744.
  • Mory, J. F. (1993). Oil prices and economic activity: is the relationship symmetric? The Energy Journal, 14(4), 151–161.
  • Mussa, M. (2000). The Impact of Higher Oil Prices on the Global Economy. Research Department. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/oil/2000/oilrep.PDF Erişim Tarihi: 19.04.2013
  • Narayan, P. K. & Narayan S. (2005). Estimating income and price elasticities of imports for Fiji in a cointegration framework. Economic Modelling, 22(3), 423–438.
  • Narayan, P. K. (2005). The savings and investment nexus for China: Evidence from cointegration test. Applied Economics, 1979–1990.
  • Oladosu, G. (2009). Identifying the oil price–macroeconomy relationship: An empirical mode decomposition analysis of US data. Energy Policy, 37, 5417–5426
  • Otto, G. (2003). Can an intertemporal model explain austria's current account deficit? The Australian Economic Review, 36(3), 350–359.
  • Peker, O. (2007). Reel döviz kurunun dış ticaret dengesi üzerindeki kısa ve uzun dönem etkilerinin ekonometrik analizi: Türkiye örneği. 8. Türkiye Ekonometri ve İstatistik Kongresi, İnönü Üniversitesi, İnönü Üniversitesi. Erişim Tarihi: 15.04.2013, http://web.inonu.edu.tr/~eisemp8/bildiri-pdf/peker.pdf
  • Peron, P. (1989). The Great crash, the oil price shock and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica, 57, 1361-1401.
  • Pesaran, H. & Shin Y. (1995). An autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis. In S. Strom, A. Holly & A. Diamond (Eds.). Centennial Volume of Ranger Frisch. Cambridge University Press.
  • Pesaran, H., Y. Shin & R. J. Smith (2001). Bound testing approaches to the analysis of long run relationship. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
  • Phillips, P. C. B. & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75, 335–346.
  • Pierce, J. P. & Enzler, J. J. (1974). The effects of external inflationary shocks, brookings. Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 13-61.
  • Rambaldi, A. N. & Doran H. E. (1996). “Testing for Granger non-causality in cointegrated systems made easy. Working Papers in Econometrics and Applied Statistics 88, Department of Econometrics, The University of New England.
  • Rasche, R H. & Tatom, J. A. (1981). Energy price shocks, aggregate supply, and monetary policy: the theory and international evidence. In Brunner, K., Meltzer, A. H. (Eds.). Supply shocks, incentives, and national wealthy. Carnegie- Rochester conference Series on Public Polic. Amesterdam: North-Holland.
  • Rautava, J. (2004). The role of oil prices and the real exchange rate in russia's economy -a cointegration approach. Journal of Comparative Economics, 32, 315–327.
  • Romer, C. D. & Romer, D. H. (1989). Does monetary policy matter? A new test in the spirit of Friedman and Schwartz. NBER Macroeconomics Annual.
  • Segal, P. (2007). Why do oil price shocks no longer shock? Oxford Institute for energysimulation analysis. The Lahore Journal of Economics, 15(1), 45–90.
  • Tatom, J. A. (1993). Are there useful lessons from the 1990–1991 oil price shock? The Energy Journal, 14(4), 129–150.
  • Toda H. Y. & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Economy, 66, 225–250.
  • Williams, J. L. (2011). World in motion-importance of oil. Erişim Tarihi: 15.04.2013, http:// scotterb.wordpress.com/2011
  • Wilson, P. (2001). Exchange rates and the trade balance for dynamic Asian economies- does the J-curve exist for Singapore, Malaysia, and Korea? Open Economies Review, 12(1), 389-413.
  • Yamada, H. & Toda, H. Y. (1998). Inference in possibly integrated vector autoregressive models: finite sample evidenc. Journal of Econometrics, 86, 55–
  • YASED (2012) Faaliyet Raporu 2012. Erişim Tarihi: 01.05.2013, http://www.yased.org.tr/webportal/Turkish/Yayinlar/Documents/2012%20Faaliy et%20Raporu_25_02_2013.pdf
  • Yüksek Planlama Kurulu, (2012). 2023 Türkiye ihracat stratejisi ve eylem planı. Erişim Tarihi: 14.03.2013, http://www.resmigazete.gov.tr/eskiler/2012/06/20120613- 31-1.pdf
  • Zaouali, S. (2007). Impact of higher oil prices on. The Chinese Economy Review, 31(2), 191–214.
  • Zivot, E. & Andrews, D. W. K., (1992). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil- price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistic, 10, 251-270.
Toplam 76 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Research Article
Yazarlar

Halil Altıntaş Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Mayıs 2013
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2013

Kaynak Göster

APA Altıntaş, H. (2013). Türkiye’de Petrol Fiyatları, İhracat ve Reel Döviz Kuru İlişkisi: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı ve Dinamik Nedensellik Analizi. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat Ve İşletme Dergisi, 9(19), 1-30. https://doi.org/10.11122/ijmeb.2013.9.19.459

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