REGIONAL CRIME ANALYSIS OF TURKEY: A TIME SERIES APPROACH

Abstract

In this study, the most common types of crime in 7 different geographical regions of Turkeyhave been analyzed via time-series approach. The purpose of the study is; to put forth the most appropriatetime series models for each geographical region and make forecasts for the crime rates. In the analysis; thecrime data obtained from official sources covering the years 2001-2010 have been used. The stationarity of 7regions has been tested and the most appropriate time series model for each region has been determined. Thevalidity of the obtained time series models has been tested and the official data for 2011 have been comparedwith the forecasts made. As a result, importance and effectiveness of the forecasts obtained from the timeseries models were given. The availability of the time series approach to crime forecasting was shown forplanning security

Keywords

• Time Series Analysis, Turkeys Crime Rates, Crime Prevention, Security, Forecast

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