WATER CONFLICTS AND THE SPATIOTEMPORAL CHANGES IN LAND USE, IRRIGATION, AND DROUGHT IN NORTHEAST SYRIA WITH FUTURE ESTIMATIONS

Abstract

As a result of climate change, it is clear to provide instability for conflict zones in the coming years. Moreover, climate change has potential socio-economic consequences in addition to environmental impacts. For example, decreasing water resources and rural land usage forces people to migrate from rural to urban areas due to low productivity in agriculture and animal husbandry, rising food prices, and decreasing wealth levels. In this study, we evaluate climate change impacts on northeast Syria, a wetter climate zone in the country. Within the scope of the study, in addition to addressing the effects of climate change on the scale of drought, we determined to what extent land-use changes and agricultural patterns throughout the region affect water use (mainly groundwater). Revealing the possible relations between the previous regional conflicts and the changes in land use, drought, and water use will be beneficial in terms of evaluating the possible threats in the future. Obviously, the changes in land use, the increase in irrigated agricultural areas, and the intensive groundwater use make the situation worse. Drought has exacerbated these problems. It is undeniable that the effects of climate change are one of the most pressing political and economic challenges in the region. Therefore, it is worthwhile to evaluate the potential future threat of the spread of conflicts that were experienced before. It is undeniable that climate change effects seem to be one of the region's most pressing political and economic challenges. Therefore, the entire Syria and the northeast region require more attention to adapt climate change effects on water resources to peace and security.

Keywords

• Syria
• Northeast Syria
• drought
• irrigation
• climate change
• water security
• hydropolitics
• Geographic Information Systems

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