Renaissance Dam: Negotiations and Regional Cooperation Between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia

Year 2026, Volume: 1 Issue: 9, 6 - 26, 31.01.2026

Nagla Elmourad Abdallh Elmourad , Süleyman Erkan

Abstract

This study examines the issue of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) from the angle of the interaction between political negotiations and the potential for regional cooperation, based on analytical tools including multi-track water diplomacy, SWOT analysis, and the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, taking into account the legal frameworks relied upon by Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia. The study concluded that the absence of a binding and effective legal agreement led to stalled negotiations, given the differing legal references of each party. The SWOT analysis also showed that Ethiopia capitalised on its geographical location and internal strengths to impose a different negotiating reality. At the same time, Egypt and Sudan remained committed to the principle of ‘historical rights’. The study recommends establishing a permanent mechanism for coordination among the three countries, activating informal diplomatic channels, and capitalizing on opportunities to share benefits, not just water, with the option of international arbitration when necessary. This vision represents a proposed framework for moving the dispute from a state of tension to a just and sustainable development partnership.

Keywords

Renaissance Dam , Negotiations , Water Diplomacy , Egypt , Sudan , Ethiopia

Ethical Statement

Declarations The authors affirm that this publication is not associated with any conflicts of interest. Additionally, the authors verify that the research did not receive any financial support that could have influenced its results or conclusions.

Supporting Institution

yok

Project Number

yok

Thanks

I want to express my gratitude to all contributors for their work in bringing this paper to fruition. It is my hope that it will significantly impact the field of study.

References

• Abebe, D. (2014), Egypt, Ethiopia, and the Nile: The Economics of International Water Law. Chi. J. Int 'l L., 15, 27.‏
• Ahmed, G. K. (2024). Geopolitics of the Horn of Africa: Arab Countries’ Stance on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, with Special Focus on the GCC Position. Asian Journal of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies, 1-19.‏
• Alebachew, H. (2014), International legal perspectives on the utilization of trans-boundary rivers: the case of the Ethiopian Renaissance (Nile) Dam. In Water and the Law (pp. 66-84). Edward Elgar Publishing.‏
• Basheer, M. (2021), Cooperative operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam reduces Nile riverine floods. River Research and Applications, 37(6), 805-814.‏
• Benzaghta, M. A., Elwalda, A., Mousa, M. M., Erkan, I., & Rahman, M. (2021), SWOT analysis applications: An integrative literature review. Journal of Global Business Insights, 6(1), 54-72.‏
• Darwisheh, H. (2021), Sudan and Egypt’s hydro-politics in the Nile River Basin. IDE-Jetro Discussion Paper, 818.‏
• DoP. (2015), Agreement on declaration of principles between the Arab Republic of Egypt, the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, and the Republic of the Sudan on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Project (GERDP).‏
• El‐Fadel, M., El‐Sayegh, Y., El‐Fadl, K., & Khorbotly, D. (2003). The Nile River Basin: A case study in surface water conflict resolution. Journal of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Education, 32(1), 107-117.‏
• Ghazinoory, S., Esmail Zadeh, A., & Memariani, A. (2007), Fuzzy SWOT analysis. Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems, 18(1), 99-108.‏
• Gibson, R. A. (2023), At the Intersection of Cooperation and Conflict: How Increased Tension and Mistrust Among Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan Shape the Negotiations on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (Doctoral dissertation, Johns Hopkins University).‏
• Helal, M., & Bekhit, H. M. (2023), So near, yet so far: an Egyptian perspective on the US-facilitated negotiations on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Water International, 48(5), 580-614.‏
• Hussein, H., Campbell, Z., Leather, J., & Ryce, P. (2023), Putting diplomacy at the forefront of Water Diplomacy, PLoS Water, 2(9), e0000173.‏
• Islam, S., & Repella, A. C. (2015), Water diplomacy: A negotiated approach to manage complex water problems, Journal of Contemporary Water Research & Education, 155(1), 1-10.‏
• Jemal, N. (2021), Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Vis-À-Vis Contemporary International Laws: Analysis of the Right to Development with Sustainable Development Goals, Journal of Indigenous Knowledge and Development Studies, 3(2), 14-27.‏
• Klimes, M., Michel, D., Yaari, E., & Restiani, P. (2019), Water diplomacy: The intersect of science, policy and practice. Journal of Hydrology, 575, 1362-1370.‏
• Leigh, D. (2009), SWOT analysis. Handbook of Improving Performance in the Workplace: Volumes 1‐3, 115-140.‏
• Makoni, F. S., Manase, G., & Ndamba, J. (2004), Patterns of domestic water use in rural areas of Zimbabwe, gender roles and realities. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C, 29(15-18), 1291-1294.‏
• Matara, J. K. (2015), River Nile Politics: The Role of South Sudan (Doctoral dissertation, University of Nairobi).‏
• Nabeel N., (2024), Water Diplomacy between the Dynamics of Conflict and Peace in International Relations, Hammurabi Center for Research and Strategic Studies. (Arabic).
• Ranjan, A. (2024), Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam dispute: implications, negotiations, and mediations. Journal of Contemporary African Studies, 42(1), 18-36.‏
• Rizwan, S., & Irfan, M. (2024), Water Diplomacy: Addressing Transboundary Water Conflicts in a Resource-Scarce World.‏
• Sehring, J., Schmeier, S., ter Horst, R., Offutt, A., & Sharipova, B. (2022), Diving into water diplomacy–exploring the emergence of a concept, Diplomatica, 4(2), 200-221.‏
• Seide, W. M., & Fantini, E. (2023), Emotions in Water Diplomacy: Negotiations on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Water Alternatives, 16(3).‏
• Tekuya, M. E. (2020), Sink or swim: Alternatives for unlocking the grand Ethiopian Renaissance dam dispute, Colum Journal. Transnat'l L., 59, 65.‏
• TRANSFORMING OUR WORLD: THE 2030 AGENDA FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT sustainabledevelopment.un.org A/RES/70/1
• Vallès, M. C., & Bórquez, S. P. (2022), The Sustainable Development Goals and the Application of International Law: The Case of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Revista iberoamericana de estudios de desarrollo= Iberoamerican journal of development studies, 11(2), 144-168.‏
• Wolf, A. T., Stahl, K., & Macomber, M. F. (2003), Conflict and cooperation within international river basins: The importance of institutional capacity, Water Resources Update, 125(1), 31-40.‏
• Zandvoort, M., van der Vlist, M. J., & van den Brink, A. (2018), Handling uncertainty through adaptiveness in planning approaches: comparing adaptive delta management and the water diplomacy framework, Journal of Environmental Policy & Planning, 20(2), 183-197.‏
• Zeitoun, M., Goulden, M., & Tickner, D. (2013), Current and future challenges facing transboundary river basin management. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 4(5), 331-349.‏
• Zergaw, T. (2024), ‘‘Mediated’’ Negotiation over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Achievement, Challenges and Prospect. International Journal of Water Management and Diplomacy, 1(7), 5-35.