From Conflict to Cooperation? Lessons from the GERD for Transboundary Water Diplomacy in the Nile Basin

Year 2026, Volume: 1 Issue: 9, 46 - 62, 31.01.2026

Awol Kedir Jewaro , Yunus Pamukoğlu

Abstract

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) stands as one of the most ambitious hydropower projects in Africa, symbolizing both Ethiopia’s developmental goals and the complex hydro-politics of the Nile Basin. Since its launch in 2011, the GERD has sparked intense debates between riparian states specifically Ethiopia, the largest upstream sources of the Nile, and Egypt, the principal downstream user, alongside Sudan, over issues of water security, energy needs, and regional economic development. While Egypt has expressed concerns over potential reductions in downstream flows, Ethiopia has emphasized the dam’s critical role in addressing domestic energy shortages and regional power integration. This tension highlights the dual nature of large-scale water infrastructures-as both sources of conflict and potential platforms for cooperation. Drawing upon the GERD case, this paper examines the evolving dynamics of transboundary water diplomacy in the Nile Basin. It explores the hydro-political, technical, institutional, and cooperative frameworks shaping management of transboundary waters, implications and the role of international actors, and the broader lessons for conflict transformation and mechanisms in shared river basins. Ultimately, the GERD experience underscores that the transition from conflict to cooperation is neither automatic nor linear, but contingent upon trust-building, inclusive dialogue, and adaptive governance.

Keywords

Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD); , Nile Basin , Transboundary Water Diplomacy , Hydro-politics , mega dam project

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