Deconstructing the Anatomy of Water Conflict: A Six-Layer Framework for Transboundary Water Issues

Year 2026, Volume: 1 Issue: 9, 119 - 148, 31.01.2026

Syed Mohsin , Sk. Tawfique M. Haque

Abstract

In an era of intensifying water scarcity and geopolitical tensions, transboundary water disputes present complex challenges to international peace and security. This paper proposes a novel, multidimensional analytical framework to dissect these disputes across six interdependent layers: hydrological, institutional, socio-cultural, geoeconomic, geopolitical, and global engagement. Developed through a mixed-methods approach—including comparative case studies of eight major international basins, qualitative content analysis, and expert workshops—the framework integrates and extends beyond existing models by explicitly addressing power asymmetries, socio-cultural identities, and the role of external actors. It moves beyond the conflict-cooperation dichotomy to reveal how these factors co-evolve and interact across scales. The framework's application to hotspots like the Nile and Mekong basins demonstrates its utility in diagnosing leverage points and prescribing tailored interventions, such as adaptive trigger mechanisms and binding dispute-settlement institutions. This power-sensitive architecture offers a comprehensive tool for scholars, policymakers, and diplomats to foster resilient and cooperative transboundary water governance.

Keywords

Transboundary Water Disputes , Analytical Framework , Hydro-Politics , Water Diplomacy , Conflict and Cooperation , Geopolitical Drivers

Ethical Statement

Ethical approval was not required as this study utilized secondary sources, white papers, grey papers, and government data repositories. This study adhered to strict ethical guidelines to ensure the integrity of the research process and the rights and well-being of all participants. All interviews conducted as part of the research were voluntary and conducted beforehand. Participants were provided with detailed information about the study's purpose, their roles, and the potential use of the collected data. They were assured of their right to withdraw from the study at any point without any repercussions. All personal and identifying information has been anonymized to protect participants' privacy, and data confidentiality was maintained throughout the study.

Thanks

This paper required the collection of a wide variety of resources, which was only possible through the efforts of Faizah Shahnewaz. We thank her for her diligence.

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