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MULTI CRITERIA ANALYSIS OF POWER ASYMMETRY IN ARAS TRANSBOUNDARY RIVER BASIN: DERIVING POTENTIAL HYDRO-HEGEMON COUNTRY

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 1 Sayı: 4, 37 - 55, 15.01.2022

Öz

Transboundary rivers are becoming a controversial issue due to the interactions among several players over water. Deriving the relative power of stakeholders in the tranboundary river basin is one of the critical factors that could affect the water negotiations. This research uses the TOPSIS method to derive power asymmetry in the Aras River basin shared among Turkey, Armenia, Iran and Azerbaijan. Power is subdivided into four main pillars, including geographical, material, bargaining and ideational. For each pillar of power, several numerical or linguistic criteria are defined and evaluated between countries. Overall ranking results show that Iran, with the relative power value of 0.79, has the highest potential hegemonic power, followed by Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan with relative power values of 0.72, 0.40 and 0.30, respectively. In the last part, sensitivity analysis of the overall power ranking is also performed based on different weighting the four pillars of power. Results indicate that weight change in bargaining power has the most significant impact on the states' power ranking.

Kaynakça

  • Allan JAT, Mirumachi N (2013) Why negotiate? Asymmetric endowments, asymmetric power and the invisible nexus of water, trade and power that brings apparent water security. Transboundary Water Management, Routledge, 26–39
  • Armenian Energy Agency. (n.d.). Retrieved April 2, 2020, from https://energyagency.am/en/page_pdf/hidroenergetika
  • AzərEnerji ASC. (n.d.). Retrieved April 2, 2020, from http://www.azerenerji.gov.az/index/page/13#mingechevirses
  • Bachrach P, Baratz MS (1962) Two faces of power. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev 56(4): 947–952
  • Barnett M, Duvall R (2005) Power in international politics. Int. Organ 59(1): 39–75
  • Bazrkar MH, Tavakoli-Nabavi E, Zamani N, Eslamian S (2013) System dynamic approach to hydro-politics in Hirmand transboundary river basin from sustainability perspective. Int J Hydrol Sci Technol 3(4): 378–398
  • Béland D (2010) The idea of power and the role of ideas. Polit. Stud. Rev 8(2): 145–154
  • Bidhendi GRN, Karbassi AR, Nasrabadi T, Hoveidi H (2007) Influence of copper mine on surface water quality. Int. J. Environ. Sci. Technol 4(1): 85–91
  • Campbell JL (1998) Institutional analysis and the role of ideas in political economy. Theory Soc 27(3): 377–409
  • Carstensen MB, Schmidt VA (2016) Power through, over and in ideas: conceptualizing ideational power in discursive institutionalism. J. Eur. public policy 23(3): 318–337
  • Cascão AE, Zeitoun M (2013) Power, hegemony and critical hydropolitics. Transboundary Water Management, Routledge, pp 40–55
  • Dahl RA (1957) The concept of power. Behav. Sci 2(3): 201–215
  • De Stefano L, Edwards P, De Silva L, Wolf AT (2010) Tracking cooperation and conflict in international basins: historic and recent trends. Water Policy 12(6): 871–884
  • Dinar A, Alemu S (2000) The process of negotiation over international water disputes: the case of the Nile Basin. Int Negot. 5(2): 331–356
  • Dinar S, Dinar A, Kurukulasuriya P (2011) Scarcity and cooperation along international rivers: an empirical assessment of bilateral treaties. Int Stud 55(3): 809–833
  • Earle A, Jägerskog A, Öjendal J (2013) Introduction: setting the scene for transboundary water management approaches. Transboundary water management, Routledge, pp 15–24
  • Hajer M A, (1995) The politics of environmental discourse: Ecological modernization and the policy process. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
  • Hay C, Rosamond B (2002) Globalization, European integration and the discursive construction of economic imperatives. J. Eur. Public Policy 9(2): 147–167
  • Herrero C, Villar A (2001) The three musketeers: four classical solutions to bankruptcy problems. Math Soc Sci. 42(3): 307–328
  • Hidroelektrik Santralleri (HES) (n.d.). Retrieved April 2, 2020, from https://www.enerjiatlasi.com/hidroelektrik/
  • Human Development Reports. (n.d.). Retrieved March 29, 2020, from http://hdr.undp.org/en/indicators/137506#
  • Iran Water Resources Management Company. (n.d.). Retrieved April 2, 2020, from http://barghabi.wrm.ir
  • Islamic Parliament Research Center of the Islamic Republic of Iran. (n.d.). Retrieved May 25, 2020, from https://rc.majlis.ir/fa/law/show/1005215
  • Kerachian R, Karamouz M (2007) A stochastic conflict resolution model for water quality management in reservoir–river systems. Adv Water Resour. 30(4): 866–882
  • Kibaroglu A, Klaphake A, Kramer A, Scheumann W, Carius A (2005) Cooperation on Turkey’s Turkey's transboundary waters, The German Federal Ministry for Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety, Berlin
  • Klaphake A, Kramer A (2011) Kura-Aras river basin: burgeoning transboundary water issues. In Turkey's Water Policy, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg 263–275
  • Kucukmehmetoglu M (2009) A game theoretic approach to assess the impacts of major investments on transboundary water resources: the case of the Euphrates and Tigris. Water Resour Manag 23(15): 3069.
  • Lukes S (2004) Power: A radical view. Macmillan International Higher Education
  • Madani K (2010) Game theory and water resources. J Hydrol 381(3–4): 225–238
  • Madani K, Rheinheimer D, Elimam L, Connell-Buck C (2011) A game theory approach to understanding the Nile River Basin conflict. A Water Resour Festschrift Honor Profr Lars Bengtsson, Div Water Resour Eng 97
  • Madani K, Sheikhmohammady M, Mokhtari S, Moradi M, Xanthopoulos P (2014) Social Planner’s Planner's Solution for the Caspian Sea Conflict. Gr Decis Negot 23(3): 579–596. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10726-013-9345-7
  • Mianabadi H, Mostert E, Zarghami M, van de Giesen N (2014) A new bankruptcy method for conflict resolution in water resources allocation. J Environ Manage 144: 152–159
  • Mills CW, Wolfe A (2000) The power elite (Vol. 20). Oxford University Press
  • QS World University Rankings 2019: Top Global Universities | Top Universities. (n.d.). Retrieved May 25, 2020, from https://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings/world-university-rankings/2019
  • Rashidi M, Zarghaami M, Pishbahar E (2020) Evaluation of Panel Regression Models in Estimating the Relationship between Water and Countries’ Agricultural Added Value in the Aras River Basin. Iran-Water Resour. Res 16(1) 17–28.
  • Rein M (2018) Power Asymmetry in the Mekong River Basin: The Impact of Hydro-Hegemony on Sharing Transboundary Water. Vienna J East Asian Stud 8(1): 127–162. https://doi.org/10.2478/vjeas-2016-0005
  • Shahbazbegian MR, Turton A, Shafaee SMM (2016) Hydropolitical Self-Organization theory; system dynamics to analyze hydropolitics of Helmand transboundary river. Water Policy 18(5): 1088-1119.
  • Stiglitz JE, Sen A, Fitoussi JP (2009) Report by the commission on the measurement of economic performance and social progress. Citeseer
  • Turton A, Henwood R (2002) Hydropolitics in the developing world: A Southern African perspective. Retrieved from https://library.wur.nl/WebQuery/wurpubs/123299
  • Turton AR (2003) The hydropolitical dynamics of cooperation in Southern Africa: A strategic perspective on institutional development in international river basins. Transboundary Rivers, sovereignty Dev Hydropolitical drivers Okavango River Basin 83–103
  • Waterbury J (1979) Hydropolitics of the Nile valley. Syracuse University Press, Syracuse, NY
  • Weber M (1964) The Theory of Social and Economic Organization: Transl. by AM Henderson and Talcott Parsons. Free Press
  • Wolf AT (1995) Hydropolitics along the Jordan River: Scarce water and its impact on the Arab-Israeli conflict (Vol. 99). United Nations University Press
  • Wolf AT (1998) Conflict and cooperation along international waterways. Water Policy 1(2): 251–265. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1366-7017(98)00019-1
  • Wolf AT, Stahl K, Macomber MF (2003) Conflict and cooperation within international river basins: The importance of institutional capacity. Water Resour Updat. 125(2): 31–40
  • World Development Indicators, Data Bank. (n.d.). Retrieved March 29, 2020, from https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators
  • World press freedom index, RSF. (n.d.). Retrieved May 25, 2020, from https://rsf.org/en/ranking/2018
  • Yoon KP, Hwang CL (1995) Multiple attribute decision making: an introduction (Vol. 104). Sage publications
  • Yu J, Kilgour DM, Hipel KW, Zhao M (2015) Power asymmetry in conflict resolution with application to a water pollution dispute in China. Water Resour Res 51(10): 8627–8645
  • Yu W, Cestti RE, Lee JY (2014) Toward Integrated Water Resources Management in Armenia. The World Bank Publications
  • Zeitoun M, Cascao AE (2010) Power, Hegemony and Critical Hydropolitics. Transboundary Water Management: Principles and Practices, pp 27–42
  • Zeitoun M, Warner J (2006) Hydro-hegemony–a framework for analysis of trans-boundary water conflicts. Water Policy 8(5): 435–460
Yıl 2022, Cilt: 1 Sayı: 4, 37 - 55, 15.01.2022

Öz

Kaynakça

  • Allan JAT, Mirumachi N (2013) Why negotiate? Asymmetric endowments, asymmetric power and the invisible nexus of water, trade and power that brings apparent water security. Transboundary Water Management, Routledge, 26–39
  • Armenian Energy Agency. (n.d.). Retrieved April 2, 2020, from https://energyagency.am/en/page_pdf/hidroenergetika
  • AzərEnerji ASC. (n.d.). Retrieved April 2, 2020, from http://www.azerenerji.gov.az/index/page/13#mingechevirses
  • Bachrach P, Baratz MS (1962) Two faces of power. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev 56(4): 947–952
  • Barnett M, Duvall R (2005) Power in international politics. Int. Organ 59(1): 39–75
  • Bazrkar MH, Tavakoli-Nabavi E, Zamani N, Eslamian S (2013) System dynamic approach to hydro-politics in Hirmand transboundary river basin from sustainability perspective. Int J Hydrol Sci Technol 3(4): 378–398
  • Béland D (2010) The idea of power and the role of ideas. Polit. Stud. Rev 8(2): 145–154
  • Bidhendi GRN, Karbassi AR, Nasrabadi T, Hoveidi H (2007) Influence of copper mine on surface water quality. Int. J. Environ. Sci. Technol 4(1): 85–91
  • Campbell JL (1998) Institutional analysis and the role of ideas in political economy. Theory Soc 27(3): 377–409
  • Carstensen MB, Schmidt VA (2016) Power through, over and in ideas: conceptualizing ideational power in discursive institutionalism. J. Eur. public policy 23(3): 318–337
  • Cascão AE, Zeitoun M (2013) Power, hegemony and critical hydropolitics. Transboundary Water Management, Routledge, pp 40–55
  • Dahl RA (1957) The concept of power. Behav. Sci 2(3): 201–215
  • De Stefano L, Edwards P, De Silva L, Wolf AT (2010) Tracking cooperation and conflict in international basins: historic and recent trends. Water Policy 12(6): 871–884
  • Dinar A, Alemu S (2000) The process of negotiation over international water disputes: the case of the Nile Basin. Int Negot. 5(2): 331–356
  • Dinar S, Dinar A, Kurukulasuriya P (2011) Scarcity and cooperation along international rivers: an empirical assessment of bilateral treaties. Int Stud 55(3): 809–833
  • Earle A, Jägerskog A, Öjendal J (2013) Introduction: setting the scene for transboundary water management approaches. Transboundary water management, Routledge, pp 15–24
  • Hajer M A, (1995) The politics of environmental discourse: Ecological modernization and the policy process. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
  • Hay C, Rosamond B (2002) Globalization, European integration and the discursive construction of economic imperatives. J. Eur. Public Policy 9(2): 147–167
  • Herrero C, Villar A (2001) The three musketeers: four classical solutions to bankruptcy problems. Math Soc Sci. 42(3): 307–328
  • Hidroelektrik Santralleri (HES) (n.d.). Retrieved April 2, 2020, from https://www.enerjiatlasi.com/hidroelektrik/
  • Human Development Reports. (n.d.). Retrieved March 29, 2020, from http://hdr.undp.org/en/indicators/137506#
  • Iran Water Resources Management Company. (n.d.). Retrieved April 2, 2020, from http://barghabi.wrm.ir
  • Islamic Parliament Research Center of the Islamic Republic of Iran. (n.d.). Retrieved May 25, 2020, from https://rc.majlis.ir/fa/law/show/1005215
  • Kerachian R, Karamouz M (2007) A stochastic conflict resolution model for water quality management in reservoir–river systems. Adv Water Resour. 30(4): 866–882
  • Kibaroglu A, Klaphake A, Kramer A, Scheumann W, Carius A (2005) Cooperation on Turkey’s Turkey's transboundary waters, The German Federal Ministry for Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety, Berlin
  • Klaphake A, Kramer A (2011) Kura-Aras river basin: burgeoning transboundary water issues. In Turkey's Water Policy, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg 263–275
  • Kucukmehmetoglu M (2009) A game theoretic approach to assess the impacts of major investments on transboundary water resources: the case of the Euphrates and Tigris. Water Resour Manag 23(15): 3069.
  • Lukes S (2004) Power: A radical view. Macmillan International Higher Education
  • Madani K (2010) Game theory and water resources. J Hydrol 381(3–4): 225–238
  • Madani K, Rheinheimer D, Elimam L, Connell-Buck C (2011) A game theory approach to understanding the Nile River Basin conflict. A Water Resour Festschrift Honor Profr Lars Bengtsson, Div Water Resour Eng 97
  • Madani K, Sheikhmohammady M, Mokhtari S, Moradi M, Xanthopoulos P (2014) Social Planner’s Planner's Solution for the Caspian Sea Conflict. Gr Decis Negot 23(3): 579–596. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10726-013-9345-7
  • Mianabadi H, Mostert E, Zarghami M, van de Giesen N (2014) A new bankruptcy method for conflict resolution in water resources allocation. J Environ Manage 144: 152–159
  • Mills CW, Wolfe A (2000) The power elite (Vol. 20). Oxford University Press
  • QS World University Rankings 2019: Top Global Universities | Top Universities. (n.d.). Retrieved May 25, 2020, from https://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings/world-university-rankings/2019
  • Rashidi M, Zarghaami M, Pishbahar E (2020) Evaluation of Panel Regression Models in Estimating the Relationship between Water and Countries’ Agricultural Added Value in the Aras River Basin. Iran-Water Resour. Res 16(1) 17–28.
  • Rein M (2018) Power Asymmetry in the Mekong River Basin: The Impact of Hydro-Hegemony on Sharing Transboundary Water. Vienna J East Asian Stud 8(1): 127–162. https://doi.org/10.2478/vjeas-2016-0005
  • Shahbazbegian MR, Turton A, Shafaee SMM (2016) Hydropolitical Self-Organization theory; system dynamics to analyze hydropolitics of Helmand transboundary river. Water Policy 18(5): 1088-1119.
  • Stiglitz JE, Sen A, Fitoussi JP (2009) Report by the commission on the measurement of economic performance and social progress. Citeseer
  • Turton A, Henwood R (2002) Hydropolitics in the developing world: A Southern African perspective. Retrieved from https://library.wur.nl/WebQuery/wurpubs/123299
  • Turton AR (2003) The hydropolitical dynamics of cooperation in Southern Africa: A strategic perspective on institutional development in international river basins. Transboundary Rivers, sovereignty Dev Hydropolitical drivers Okavango River Basin 83–103
  • Waterbury J (1979) Hydropolitics of the Nile valley. Syracuse University Press, Syracuse, NY
  • Weber M (1964) The Theory of Social and Economic Organization: Transl. by AM Henderson and Talcott Parsons. Free Press
  • Wolf AT (1995) Hydropolitics along the Jordan River: Scarce water and its impact on the Arab-Israeli conflict (Vol. 99). United Nations University Press
  • Wolf AT (1998) Conflict and cooperation along international waterways. Water Policy 1(2): 251–265. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1366-7017(98)00019-1
  • Wolf AT, Stahl K, Macomber MF (2003) Conflict and cooperation within international river basins: The importance of institutional capacity. Water Resour Updat. 125(2): 31–40
  • World Development Indicators, Data Bank. (n.d.). Retrieved March 29, 2020, from https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators
  • World press freedom index, RSF. (n.d.). Retrieved May 25, 2020, from https://rsf.org/en/ranking/2018
  • Yoon KP, Hwang CL (1995) Multiple attribute decision making: an introduction (Vol. 104). Sage publications
  • Yu J, Kilgour DM, Hipel KW, Zhao M (2015) Power asymmetry in conflict resolution with application to a water pollution dispute in China. Water Resour Res 51(10): 8627–8645
  • Yu W, Cestti RE, Lee JY (2014) Toward Integrated Water Resources Management in Armenia. The World Bank Publications
  • Zeitoun M, Cascao AE (2010) Power, Hegemony and Critical Hydropolitics. Transboundary Water Management: Principles and Practices, pp 27–42
  • Zeitoun M, Warner J (2006) Hydro-hegemony–a framework for analysis of trans-boundary water conflicts. Water Policy 8(5): 435–460
Toplam 52 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Uluslararası İlişkiler
Bölüm Research Articles
Yazarlar

Mahmood Rashidi 0000-0002-7071-1575

Mahdi Zarghami

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 13 Ocak 2022
Yayımlanma Tarihi 15 Ocak 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022 Cilt: 1 Sayı: 4

Kaynak Göster

MLA Rashidi, Mahmood ve Mahdi Zarghami. “MULTI CRITERIA ANALYSIS OF POWER ASYMMETRY IN ARAS TRANSBOUNDARY RIVER BASIN: DERIVING POTENTIAL HYDRO-HEGEMON COUNTRY”. International Journal of Water Management and Diplomacy, c. 1, sy. 4, ss. 37-55.


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