The Effects of Global Economic Policy Uncertainties on Manufacturing Industry Exports: The Case of Türkiye

Abstract

In this paper, the relationship between Türkiye’s manufacturing industry exports and global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) is examined using monthly data from 2013:01 to 2023:12. Estimations performed using the ARDL approach indicate that GEPU does not significantly affect manufacturing industry exports in Türkiye. This finding suggests that Turkish manufacturing industry exporters maintain stable and long-term trade relations. Consistent with expectations, foreign demand positively influences exports, while the appreciation of the Turkish Lira has a negative impact. To enhance manufacturing industry exports, it is recommended to strengthen commercial and diplomatic ties, enhance international cooperation, mitigate exchange rate risks through expanded hedging mechanisms, and invest in human capital and technology.

Keywords

• Export
• Global Uncertainty
• Foreign Demand
• Exchange Rate
• ARDL

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