İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 2602-4152 2602-3954 İstanbul Üniversitesi 10.26650/ISTJECON2021-1191952 Business Administration İşletme Yüksek Riskli Bir Ülkede Dolarizasyon ve Risk Primi: Türkiye Üzerine Bir İnceleme Dollarization and Risk Premium in a Risky Country: An Investigation on Turkiye https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3855-5429 Eren Murat IGDIR UNIVERSITY https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7055-8240 Başar Selim ANADOLU UNIVERSITY https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5969-4612 Tosun Bengü 01 18 2023 72 2 625 651 10 20 2022 12 05 2022 Copyright © 1939, İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 1939 İstanbul İktisat Dergisi

Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde dolarizasyonun neden olduğu deformasyonun öneminden yola çıkılarak geliştirilen bu çalışmada, para politikası, döviz kuru ve risk düzeyinin finansal dolarizasyon üzerindeki etkileri incelenmiştir. Çalışma tarihi itibariyle dünyanın en riskli ülkesi olan Türkiye için gerçekleştirilen araştırmada, risk seviyesinin kısa dönemler için etkisini belirlemek amacıyla haftalık veriler kullanılmıştır. Değişkenler arasındaki ilişki FSHIN eşbütünleşme testi ve DOLS tahmincisi kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Bulgular, ülke riski, döviz kuru ve yerli para mevduat faiz oranlarının finansal dolarizasyonu olumlu, yabancı para mevduat faiz oranlarının ise olumsuz etkilediğini göstermektedir. Makalenin özgünlüğü, yüksek riskli bir ülke için dolarizasyonun ekonomik göstergeler ve kısa dönemli riskler dikkate alınarak incelenmesinde yatmaktadır. Buna göre dolarizasyon, riskler ve ekonomi politikaları arasındaki ilişkiye ilişkin literatürdeki boşluğun doldurulması amaçlanmaktadır.

In this study, developed from the importance of the deformation caused by dollarization in developing countries, the effect of risk level on financial dollarization is examined. In the research conducted for Turkey, one of the riskiest countries in the world according to the five-year Credit Default Swaps (CDS) premium values as of the date of the study, weekly data between the period of December 14, 2012 and February 11, 2022 are used to determine the effect of the risk level for short periods. The relationship between variables is examined using the Fourier Cointegration Test (FSHIN) cointegration test and the Dynamic Least Squares (DOLS) estimator. The findings show that country risk, exchange rate, and domestic currency deposit interest rates affect financial dollarization positively, while foreign currency deposit interest rates affect it negatively. The study carried out for Turkey sheds light on the factors that should be considered in high-risk countries facing the dollarization problem and presents policy recommendations for developing countries in this direction.

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