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The Possible Effects of the Belt and Road Initiative on Turkey’s Foreign Trade within the Scope of the Gravity Model: A Modes of Transportation Approach

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 73 Sayı: 1, 83 - 105, 26.06.2023

Selim Süleyman

Öz

The Belt and Road Initiative is a project China presented in 2013 to improve intercontinental connections and cooperation. The Belt and Road Project connects East Asia, Central Asia, West Asia, Africa, and Europe by both land and sea and aims to establish partnerships between the countries on the Belt Road, as well as to realize balanced and sustainable development in these countries. Located in the center of the continental juncture of Asia, Europe, and Africa, Turkey has an important place in China’s Belt and Road Initiative due to its geographical and geopolitical location. The aim of this study is to estimate the effect of shortening the distance among countries within the scope of the Belt and Road Initiative with regard to Turkey’s foreign trade using the Gravity Model. This study primarily reviews the literature regarding studies on Belt and Road Initiative, and regional integration in this context. The study calculates the effect of the variable of distance on Turkey’s foreign trade with respect to modes of transportation and estimates the change in Turkey’s foreign trade with the countries within the scope of the Belt and Road Initiative. When evaluating the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on Turkey’s foreign trade, the study concludes that, although certain acquisitions are gained in exports, the BRI will have a direct negative impact on the foreign trade deficit due to imports being more effective.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Belt and Road Initiative Mode of transportation Gravity model Foreign trade

Kaynakça

  • Anderson, J. E. (2011). The gravity model. Annual Review of Economics, 3(1), 133-160. google scholar
  • Baniya, S., Rocha, N., & Ruta, M. (2020). Trade effects of the new silk road: A gravity analysis. Journal of Development Economics, 146, Article 102467. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2020.102467. Bernardini, R., &
  • Bertarelli, S. (2015).Trade costs in bilateral trade flows: heterogeneity and zeroes in structural gravity models. The World Economy, Vol. 38, Issue 11, pp. 1744-1762, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2717222 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/twec.12259. google scholar
  • Carrere, C. (2004). African regional agreements: Impact on trade with or without currency unions. Journal of African Economies, 13(2), 199-239. google scholar
  • Carrere, C. (2006). Revisiting the effects of regional trade agreements on trade flows with proper specification of the gravity model. European Economic Review, 50(2), 223-247. google scholar
  • Fardella, E., & Prodi, G. (2017). The belt and road initiative impact on Europe: an Italian perspective. China & WorldEconomy. 25. 125-138. . https://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12217. google scholar
  • Foo, N., Lean, H. H., & Salim, R. (2019). The impact of China's one belt one road initiative on international trade in the ASEAN region. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 54, 101089. https://doi.org/10.1016Zj.najef.2019.101089. google scholar
  • Grossman, G. M., & Helpman, E. (1994). Endogenous innovation in the theory of growth. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 8(1), 23-44. google scholar
  • Guo, X., Zhang, J., Xue, J., & Yan, T. (2017). A research on the gravity model of Chinas oil trade in the strategic context of One Belt One Road. Journal Of Economics And International Finance, 9(10), 95-102. https://doi.org/10.5897/jeif2017.0858. google scholar
  • Haralambides H. & Merk O. (2020), The belt and road initiative: impacts on global maritime trade flows, International Transport Forum Discussion Papers, No. 2020/02, OECD Publishing. https:// doi.org/10.1787/2281f06f-en. google scholar
  • Helpman, E., & Hoffmaister, A. (1997). North-South R&D spillovers. The Economic Journal, 107(440), 134-149. google scholar
  • Herrero, A. G., & Xu, J. (2017). China's belt and road initiative: Can Europe expect trade gains? China & World Economy, 25(6), 84-99. google scholar
  • Hummels, David L., & Georg Schaur. 2013. "Time as a Trade Barrier.” American Economic Review, 103(7): 2935-59. google scholar
  • Irshad, M., Xin, Q., Hui, Z., & Arshad, H. (2018) An empirical analysis of Pakistan's bilateral trade and trade potential with China: A gravity model approach, Cogent Economics & Finance, 6(1), https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2018.1504409. google scholar
  • Kabir, M., Salim, R., & Al-Mawali, N. (2017). The gravity model and trade flows: Recent developments in econometric modeling and empirical evidence. Economic Analysis and Policy, 56, 60-71. google scholar
  • Kim,. Mariano P. & Abesamis J. (2021) Trade impact of reducing time and costs at borders in the central Asia regional economic cooperation region. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(9), pages 2602-2619, July. https://doi.org/10.1080/154049 6X.2021.2007877. google scholar
  • Kohl, T. (2019). The belt and road initiatives effect on supplychain trade: Evidence from structural gravity equations. Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 12(1), 77-104. google scholar
  • Larch, M., & Yotov, Y (2016). General equilibrium trade policy analysis with structural gravity. World Trade Organizations (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division. google scholar
  • Lee, Euri. (2019). The belt and road initiative: impact on trade patterns between China and central Asia. East Asian Community Review. 1. https://doi.org/10.1057/s42215-019-00015-3. google scholar
  • Liu, A., Lu, C., & Wang, Z. (2020). The roles of cultural and institutional distance in international trade: Evidence from China's trade with the Belt and Road countries. China Economic Review, 61, 101234. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2018.10.001. google scholar
  • Mao, H., Liu, G., Zhang, C., & Atif, R. (2019). Does belt and road initiative hurt node countries? A study from export perspective. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 55(7), 1472-1485. google scholar
  • OECD (2018), Business and Finance Outlook. Erişim: https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/finance-and-investment/oecd-business-and-finance-outlook-2018_9789264298828-en google scholar
  • Ramasamy, Bala & Yeung, Matthew. (2019). China's one belt one road initiative:the impact of trade facilitation versus physical infrastructure on exports. The World Economy. 42. https://doi. org/10.1111/twec.12808. google scholar
  • Silva, J. S., & Tenreyro, S. (2006). The log of gravity. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 88(4), 641-658. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest.88.4.641. google scholar
  • Swallow, Y., Deb, P., Furceri, D., Jimenez, D., & Ostry, J. (2022). Shipping Costs and Inflation. IMF Working Paper. google scholar
  • Tinbergen, J. (1962). Shaping the World Economy; Suggestions for an International Economic Policy. Books (Jan Tinbergen). Twentieth Century Fund, New York. Erişim: http://hdl.handle. net/1765/16826TÜİK (2013-2019), Dış Ticaret Mikro Veri Seti. google scholar
  • World Bank Group (2019). Belt and Road Economics- Opportunities and Risks of Transport Corridors. Washington. google scholar
  • Yu, C., Zhang, R., An L. & Yu, Z (2020). Has China's belt and road initiative intensified bilateral trade links between China and the involved countries?. Sustainability. 12. 6747. https://doi. org/10.3390/su12176747. google scholar
  • Yu, L., Zhao, D., Niu, H., & Lu, F. (2020). Does the belt and road initiative expand China's export potential to countries along the belt and road?. China Economic Review, 60, 101419. https://doi. org/10.1016/j.chieco.2020.101419. google scholar

Kuşak ve Yol Projesinin Çekim Modeli Kapsamında Türkiye Dış Ticaretine Olası Etkileri: Ulaşım Modları Yaklaşımı

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 73 Sayı: 1, 83 - 105, 26.06.2023

Selim Süleyman

Öz

Kuşak ve Yol Projesi Çin tarafından 2013 yılında kıtalararası ölçekte bağlantıları ve iş birliğini geliştirmek üzere sunulmuş bir projedir. Kuşak ve Yol Projesi hem karadan hem de denizden Doğu Asya, Orta Asya, Batı Asya, Afrika ve Avrupa’nın birbirine bağlanmasını; “Kuşak-Yol” üzerindeki ülkeler arasında ortaklıklar kurmayı ve bu ülkelerde dengeli ve sürdürülebilir kalkınmalar gerçekleştirmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Asya-Avrupa-Afrika kıtalarının ortasında yer alan Türkiye, coğrafi ve jeopolitik konumu nedeniyle Çin’in “Kuşak –Yol” projesinde önemli bir yere sahiptir. Bu çalışmanın amacı Kuşak ve Yol Projesi girişimi kapsamında yer alan ülkelerin mesafe kısalmalarının Türkiye dış ticaretine etkisinin Çekim Modeli ile tahminidir. Bu kapsamda çalışmada öncelikli olarak Kuşak ve Yol Projesi özelinde ve bölgesel entegrasyon üzerine yapılan çalışmalara dair literatür taranmıştır. Ulaşım modlarına göre mesafe değişkeninin Türkiye’nin dış ticaretine etkisi hesaplanıp Kuşak ve Yol Projesi kapsamındaki ülkeler özelinde Türkiye’nin dış ticaretteki değişimi tahmin edilmiştir. Çalışmada Kuşak ve Yol Projesi projesinin Türkiye dış ticaretine etkisi değerlendirildiğinde; ihracatta belirli edinimler kazanılsa da ithalatın daha etkili olması nedeniyle dış ticaret açığı üzerinde doğrudan negatif etkide bulunacağı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kuşak ve Yol Projesi Ulaşım modları Çekim modeli Dış ticaret

Kaynakça

  • Anderson, J. E. (2011). The gravity model. Annual Review of Economics, 3(1), 133-160. google scholar
  • Baniya, S., Rocha, N., & Ruta, M. (2020). Trade effects of the new silk road: A gravity analysis. Journal of Development Economics, 146, Article 102467. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2020.102467. Bernardini, R., &
  • Bertarelli, S. (2015).Trade costs in bilateral trade flows: heterogeneity and zeroes in structural gravity models. The World Economy, Vol. 38, Issue 11, pp. 1744-1762, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2717222 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/twec.12259. google scholar
  • Carrere, C. (2004). African regional agreements: Impact on trade with or without currency unions. Journal of African Economies, 13(2), 199-239. google scholar
  • Carrere, C. (2006). Revisiting the effects of regional trade agreements on trade flows with proper specification of the gravity model. European Economic Review, 50(2), 223-247. google scholar
  • Fardella, E., & Prodi, G. (2017). The belt and road initiative impact on Europe: an Italian perspective. China & WorldEconomy. 25. 125-138. . https://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12217. google scholar
  • Foo, N., Lean, H. H., & Salim, R. (2019). The impact of China's one belt one road initiative on international trade in the ASEAN region. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 54, 101089. https://doi.org/10.1016Zj.najef.2019.101089. google scholar
  • Grossman, G. M., & Helpman, E. (1994). Endogenous innovation in the theory of growth. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 8(1), 23-44. google scholar
  • Guo, X., Zhang, J., Xue, J., & Yan, T. (2017). A research on the gravity model of Chinas oil trade in the strategic context of One Belt One Road. Journal Of Economics And International Finance, 9(10), 95-102. https://doi.org/10.5897/jeif2017.0858. google scholar
  • Haralambides H. & Merk O. (2020), The belt and road initiative: impacts on global maritime trade flows, International Transport Forum Discussion Papers, No. 2020/02, OECD Publishing. https:// doi.org/10.1787/2281f06f-en. google scholar
  • Helpman, E., & Hoffmaister, A. (1997). North-South R&D spillovers. The Economic Journal, 107(440), 134-149. google scholar
  • Herrero, A. G., & Xu, J. (2017). China's belt and road initiative: Can Europe expect trade gains? China & World Economy, 25(6), 84-99. google scholar
  • Hummels, David L., & Georg Schaur. 2013. "Time as a Trade Barrier.” American Economic Review, 103(7): 2935-59. google scholar
  • Irshad, M., Xin, Q., Hui, Z., & Arshad, H. (2018) An empirical analysis of Pakistan's bilateral trade and trade potential with China: A gravity model approach, Cogent Economics & Finance, 6(1), https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2018.1504409. google scholar
  • Kabir, M., Salim, R., & Al-Mawali, N. (2017). The gravity model and trade flows: Recent developments in econometric modeling and empirical evidence. Economic Analysis and Policy, 56, 60-71. google scholar
  • Kim,. Mariano P. & Abesamis J. (2021) Trade impact of reducing time and costs at borders in the central Asia regional economic cooperation region. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(9), pages 2602-2619, July. https://doi.org/10.1080/154049 6X.2021.2007877. google scholar
  • Kohl, T. (2019). The belt and road initiatives effect on supplychain trade: Evidence from structural gravity equations. Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 12(1), 77-104. google scholar
  • Larch, M., & Yotov, Y (2016). General equilibrium trade policy analysis with structural gravity. World Trade Organizations (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division. google scholar
  • Lee, Euri. (2019). The belt and road initiative: impact on trade patterns between China and central Asia. East Asian Community Review. 1. https://doi.org/10.1057/s42215-019-00015-3. google scholar
  • Liu, A., Lu, C., & Wang, Z. (2020). The roles of cultural and institutional distance in international trade: Evidence from China's trade with the Belt and Road countries. China Economic Review, 61, 101234. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2018.10.001. google scholar
  • Mao, H., Liu, G., Zhang, C., & Atif, R. (2019). Does belt and road initiative hurt node countries? A study from export perspective. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 55(7), 1472-1485. google scholar
  • OECD (2018), Business and Finance Outlook. Erişim: https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/finance-and-investment/oecd-business-and-finance-outlook-2018_9789264298828-en google scholar
  • Ramasamy, Bala & Yeung, Matthew. (2019). China's one belt one road initiative:the impact of trade facilitation versus physical infrastructure on exports. The World Economy. 42. https://doi. org/10.1111/twec.12808. google scholar
  • Silva, J. S., & Tenreyro, S. (2006). The log of gravity. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 88(4), 641-658. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest.88.4.641. google scholar
  • Swallow, Y., Deb, P., Furceri, D., Jimenez, D., & Ostry, J. (2022). Shipping Costs and Inflation. IMF Working Paper. google scholar
  • Tinbergen, J. (1962). Shaping the World Economy; Suggestions for an International Economic Policy. Books (Jan Tinbergen). Twentieth Century Fund, New York. Erişim: http://hdl.handle. net/1765/16826TÜİK (2013-2019), Dış Ticaret Mikro Veri Seti. google scholar
  • World Bank Group (2019). Belt and Road Economics- Opportunities and Risks of Transport Corridors. Washington. google scholar
  • Yu, C., Zhang, R., An L. & Yu, Z (2020). Has China's belt and road initiative intensified bilateral trade links between China and the involved countries?. Sustainability. 12. 6747. https://doi. org/10.3390/su12176747. google scholar
  • Yu, L., Zhao, D., Niu, H., & Lu, F. (2020). Does the belt and road initiative expand China's export potential to countries along the belt and road?. China Economic Review, 60, 101419. https://doi. org/10.1016/j.chieco.2020.101419. google scholar
Toplam 29 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular İşletme
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Selim Süleyman 0000-0002-1548-0874

Yayımlanma Tarihi 26 Haziran 2023
Gönderilme Tarihi 23 Mayıs 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023 Cilt: 73 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Süleyman, S. (2023). Kuşak ve Yol Projesinin Çekim Modeli Kapsamında Türkiye Dış Ticaretine Olası Etkileri: Ulaşım Modları Yaklaşımı. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, 73(1), 83-105.
AMA Süleyman S. Kuşak ve Yol Projesinin Çekim Modeli Kapsamında Türkiye Dış Ticaretine Olası Etkileri: Ulaşım Modları Yaklaşımı. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi. Haziran 2023;73(1):83-105.
Chicago Süleyman, Selim. “Kuşak Ve Yol Projesinin Çekim Modeli Kapsamında Türkiye Dış Ticaretine Olası Etkileri: Ulaşım Modları Yaklaşımı”. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 73, sy. 1 (Haziran 2023): 83-105.
EndNote Süleyman S (01 Haziran 2023) Kuşak ve Yol Projesinin Çekim Modeli Kapsamında Türkiye Dış Ticaretine Olası Etkileri: Ulaşım Modları Yaklaşımı. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 73 1 83–105.
IEEE S. Süleyman, “Kuşak ve Yol Projesinin Çekim Modeli Kapsamında Türkiye Dış Ticaretine Olası Etkileri: Ulaşım Modları Yaklaşımı”, İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, c. 73, sy. 1, ss. 83–105, 2023.
ISNAD Süleyman, Selim. “Kuşak Ve Yol Projesinin Çekim Modeli Kapsamında Türkiye Dış Ticaretine Olası Etkileri: Ulaşım Modları Yaklaşımı”. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 73/1 (Haziran 2023), 83-105.
JAMA Süleyman S. Kuşak ve Yol Projesinin Çekim Modeli Kapsamında Türkiye Dış Ticaretine Olası Etkileri: Ulaşım Modları Yaklaşımı. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi. 2023;73:83–105.
MLA Süleyman, Selim. “Kuşak Ve Yol Projesinin Çekim Modeli Kapsamında Türkiye Dış Ticaretine Olası Etkileri: Ulaşım Modları Yaklaşımı”. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, c. 73, sy. 1, 2023, ss. 83-105.
Vancouver Süleyman S. Kuşak ve Yol Projesinin Çekim Modeli Kapsamında Türkiye Dış Ticaretine Olası Etkileri: Ulaşım Modları Yaklaşımı. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi. 2023;73(1):83-105.
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