ERKEN UYARI SİSTEMLERİ YOLUYLA TÜRKİYE’DEKİ EKONOMİK KRİZLERİN ANALİZİ

Abstract

Türkiye ekonomisinde finansal liberalizasyon süreci ile ortaya çıkan faiz oranı-döviz kuru ilişkisinin kırılgan bir yapı oluşturduğu ve bu durumun ülkenin risk priminin yükselmesiyle birlikte ekonomik krizleri tetiklediği gözlenmiştir. Bu çerçevede ekonomide faiz oranı-döviz kuru makasının yarattığı suni refah artışlarının ortaya çıkardığı krizler ve yüksek faiz oranıyla birlikte suni biçimde değerlenen ulusal paranın sürdürülemezliği dikkat çekmektedir.

Keywords

• Ekonomik krizler, Para-ödemeler bilançosu krizleri, Finansal-bankacılık krizleri, Erken uyarı sistemleri, Döviz kuru baskı indeksi, Türkiye ekonomisi, Logit model, Probit model

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