AVRUPA PARASAL BİRLİĞİNDE KAMU BORÇ STOKU VE ENFLASYON İLİŞKİSİ: PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Abstract

Fiyat seviyesinin belirlenmesinin geleneksel (monetarist) görüşü, parasal politikanın rolüne odaklanırken mali politikanın rolünü ihmal etmektedir. Geleneksel teoride, fiyat seviyesi para arzı ve talebiyle belirlenirken, 1990’lı yıllardan itibaren ortaya çıkan fiyat düzeyinin mali kuramı (FTPL) mali otoritenin, zamanlararası kamu bütçe kısıtının sağlanmasından bağımsız olarak mali değişkenlerini oluşturmasına izin verip mali politikaların fiyat seviyesini belirleyebildiğini vurgulamaktadır. Yeni teori, Avrupa Parasal Birliğine üye ülkelerde fiyat seviyesinin farklılaşmasını açıklayabilmektedir. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, Avrupa Parasal Birliğine Eski ve Yeni Üye ülkeler ile Aday ülkelerde mali politikaların fiyat seviyesini etkileyip etkilemediğinin panel veri yöntemiyle analiz edilmesidir. Panel veri analizi, tüm ülke gruplarında Ricardocu veya parasal üstünlük rejiminin geçerli olduğunu veya bir diğer ifadeyle FTPL’nin geçerli olmadığını kanıtlamaktadır.

Keywords

• Avrupa Parasal Birlik, Fiyat Düzeyinin Mali Kuramı, Ricardocu ve Ricardocu Olmayan Mali Politikalar, Panel Veri Analizi

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