Abstract
In recent years, Turkey has experienced economic crises, terrorist incidents and natural disasters. This study investigates whether these shocks have temporary or permanent effects on visitor arrivals. Random walk hypothesis asserts that a series is a non-stationary or a unit root process. If visitor arrivals are characterized by a unit root, it implies that shocks to visitor arrivals are permanent. If visitor arrivals series not include a unit root process, this implies that shocks to visitor arrivals are temporary. In this study, the “random walk hypothesis” is tested for visitor arrivals to Turkey during 1996-2014 using Im et al. (2003) panel unit root test. IPS test results allow rejecting the random walk hypothesis, implying that shocks to visitor arrivals to Turkey from the 15 major source countries between 1996 and 2014 have a temporary effect on visitor arrivals.
References
- Bhattacharya, M. & Narayan, P. K. (2005). Testing For The Random Walk Hypothesis In The Case of Visitor Arrivals: Evidence From Indian Tourism, Applied Economics, 37: pp. 1485-1490.
- Bozkurt K., Bahar, O. (2015). Talep Şokları: Türk Turizm Sektörü İçin Bir Analiz, Anatolia: Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi, 26(1), pp. 29-41.
Abstract
In recent years, Turkey has experienced economic crises, terrorist incidents and natural disasters. This study investigates whether these shocks have temporary or permanent effects on visitor arrivals. Random walk hypothesis asserts that a series is a non-stationary or a unit root process. If visitor arrivals are characterized by a unit root, it implies that shocks to visitor arrivals are permanent. If visitor arrivals series not include a unit root process, this implies that shocks to visitor arrivals are temporary. In this study, the “random walk hypothesis” is tested for visitor arrivals to Turkey during 1996-2014 using Im et al. (2003) panel unit root test. IPS test results allow rejecting the random walk hypothesis, implying that shocks to visitor arrivals to Turkey from the 15 major source countries between 1996 and 2014 have a temporary effect on visitor arrivals.
References
- Bhattacharya, M. & Narayan, P. K. (2005). Testing For The Random Walk Hypothesis In The Case of Visitor Arrivals: Evidence From Indian Tourism, Applied Economics, 37: pp. 1485-1490.
- Bozkurt K., Bahar, O. (2015). Talep Şokları: Türk Turizm Sektörü İçin Bir Analiz, Anatolia: Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi, 26(1), pp. 29-41.
Details
| Journal Section | Makaleler |
|---|---|
| Authors | |
| Publication Date | April 29, 2016 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2016 Sayı 24 (2016) |