AN EMPIRICAL MODEL FOR THE TURKISH TRADE BALANCE: NEW EVIDENCE FROM ARDL BOUNDS TESTING ANALYSES

Yıl 2011, Sayı: 14, 38 - 61, 04.04.2011

H. Bayram İrhan , Nur Alacahan Levent Korap

Öz

In this paper, the determinants of the Turkish trade balance are tried to be analyzed in an empirical modelling approach. For this purpose, the contemporaneous ARDL-based bounds testing has been used to examine the existence of a long run co-integration relationship between the variables of our interest. The estimation results indicate that real exchange rate depreciations improves the trade balance in a strong and significant way, that domestic real income affects the trade balance negatively, and that trade balance is strongly improved due to an increase in foreign real income. No significant effect of crude oil prices can be observed on trade balance. The error correction modeling gives results in line with the long run findings of the co integration analysis. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Trade Balance, ARDL Bounds Testing Approach, Approach, Turkish Economy

AN EMPIRICAL MODEL FOR THE TURKISH TRADE BALANCE: NEW EVIDENCE FROM ARDL BOUNDS TESTING ANALYSES

Öz

Bu çalışmada Türk ticaret dengesinin belirleyicileri uygulamalı bir modelleme yaklaşımı içerisinde
çözümlenmeye çalışılmaktadır. Bu amaçla çağdaş ARDL temelli sınırlar testi ilgi alanımıza giren değişkenler
arasındaki uzun dönemli eş-bütünleşik bir ilişkinin varlığının incelenmesi için kullanılmıştır. Tahmin sonuçları
reel döviz kuru değer kayıplarının ticaret dengesini güçlü ve anlamlı bir şekilde iyileştirdiğini, yurtiçi reel
gelirin ticaret dengesini negatif olarak etkilediğini ve ticaret dengesinin yabancı reel gelirdeki bir artış sonucu
güçlü bir şekilde iyileştiğini göstermektedir. Ham petrol fiyatlarının ticaret dengesi üzerinde anlamlı bir etkisi
gözlenememektedir. Hata düzeltme modellemesi eş-bütünleşim çözümlemesinin uzun dönem bulguları
doğrultusunda sonuçlar vermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ticaret Dengesi, ARDL Sınırlar Testi Yaklaşımı, Türkiye Ekonomisi

Kaynakça

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