THE IMPACTS OF INSTITUTIONS, OPENNESS AND MACROECONOMIC STABILITY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS ON MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES
Yıl 2014,
Sayı: 20, 104 - 123, 02.12.2014
Fatih Kaplan
,
Sevda Yapraklı
Öz
This study aims to analyze the impacts of indirect determinants such as institutions, trade-financial openness and macroeconomic stability on economic growth in 48 middle income countries. With this purpose, the impacts of the ten indicators in total belonging to the aforesaid variables for the term of 2002-2011 on economic growth are econometrically analyzed by using panel data analyses. According to the results of the analysis, institutions (political stability and absence of violence, regulatory quality and rule of law), trade and financial openness (M2/GDP), and macroeconomic stability (central government revenues /GDP) affect economic growth in a positive way. The results of the analysis show that institutions, openness and macroeconomic stability in middle income countries contribute to economic growth but that the level of this contribution is low.
Kaynakça
- Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S. and Robinson A.J. 2005. Institutions as the Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth. Ed. Aghion, P. and Durlauf, S.N. Handbook of Economic Growth, Elsevier: 368-472. Adak, M. 2010. Public Debt and Economic Growth: The Case of Turkey. Maliye Dergisi 159(2): 233-243. Alfano, M. R. and Baraldi A. L. 2011. Political Competition and Economic Growth: Evidence from Italy. SSRN Working Paper,SSRN-id1751066. Baltagi, H. B. 2005. Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, John Wiley Sons Inc., Chichester . Barro, J. R..1996. Determinants of Growth: A Cross-Country Emprical Study. NBER Working Paper, No: 5698. Bashar, K. M. R. O. and Khan, H. 2007. Liberalization and Growth: An Econometric Study of Bangladesh. U21Global Working Paper Series, No: 001/200.
- Beşkaya, A. ve Manan, O. 2009. A Time Series Analysis Of The Nexus Between Economic Freedom and Democracy And Economic Performance: The Turkish Case Zonguldak Karaelmas University, U Journal of Social Sciences 5(10): 47–76. Bloch, H. and Tang, H.K. S. 2004. Deep Determinants of Economic Growth: Institutions, Geography and Openness to Trade. Progress in Development Studies 4(3): 2452 Brown, B. M. and Forsythe, B. A. 1974. Robust Tests For Equality of Variances. Journal of the American Statistical Association 69(346): 364-367. Cavalcanti, V. T., Magalh˜aes M. A. and Tavares, A. J. 2008. Institutions and Economic Development In Brazil. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 48(2): 412–432. Crosby, M. 2000. Exchange Rate Volatility and Macroeconomic Performance in Hong Kong. Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research Working Papers, No:032000. Din, M., Ghani, E. and Siddique, O. 2003. Openness and Economic Growth in Pakistan. The Pakistan Development Review 42(4): 795-807. Driscoll, J. C., and A. C. Kraay. 1998. Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation with Spatially Dependent Panel Data. Review of Economics and Statistics, 80: 549–560. Domaç, İ. and Shabsigh, G. 1999. Real Exchange Rate Behavior and Economic Growth: Evidence from Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia. IMF Working Paper, No: WP/99/40. Easterly, W.2001. Can Institutions Resolve Ethnic Conflict?. Economic Development and Cultural Change 49(4): 687-706. Easterly, W., Ritzan, J. and Woolcock, M. 2006. Social Cohesion, Institutions, and Growth. Economics & Politics 18(2): 103-120.
- Faria , A. J., Paula, F., Luiz, P. ,C.C. Manoel and Meyer, R.T. 2011. Financial Liberalization, Economic Performance And Macroeconomic Stability in Brazil: An Assessment Of The Recent Period. 37th Brazilian Economics Meeting, Brazil. Fischer, S.1993. The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth. NBER Working Paper No. 4565. Frees, E. 1995. Assessing cross-sectional correlation in panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 69: 393–414. Frees E.W. 2004. “Longitudinal and Panel Data: Analysis and Applications in the Social Sciences”, Cambridge University Press. Friedman, M. 1937. The Use of Ranks to Avoid the Assumption of Normality Implicit in the Analysis of Variance. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 32: 675–701. Fountas, S., Karanasos, M. and Kim, J. 2006. Inflation Uncertainty, Output Growth Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 68(3): 319–343. Glaeser, L. E., Porta, L. R., Lopez-de-Silane, F. and Shleifer, A. 2004. Do Institutions Cause Growth?. Journal of Economic Growth 9(3): 271-303. Greene, H. W. 2003. Econometric Analysis, Prentice Hall, New Jersey. Guillaumet, P. and Richaud, A. 2001. Openness and Economic Growth: The Case of France Since 1850. VIth Spring Meeting of Young Economists. Hausman, A. J. 1978. Specification Tests in Econometrics. Econometrica 46 :125112
- Helliwell, F. J. and Putnam D. R. 1995. Economic Growth and Social Capital in Italy. Eastern Economic Journal 21(3): 295-307. Hoechle, D. 2007. “Robust Standard Errors for Panel Regressions with CrossSectional Dependence”, Stata Journal, 7:1–31. Huang, Y. and Wang, X. 2010. Financial Repression and Economic Growth in China. China Growth Centre (CGC) Discussion Paper Series, No:5. Ismihan, M., Metin-Ozcan, K. and Tansel, A. 2005. The Role Of Macroeconomic Instability in Public And Private Capital Accumulation And Growth: The Case Of Turkey 1963-1999. Applied Economics 37(2): 239-251. Keşkek, S. ve Özhan, M. 2004. Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty and Economic Growth. Journal of Active, 37: 1-18. King G. R. and Levine, R. 1993. Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 108(3): 717-733. Knack, S. and Keefer, P. 1997. Does Social Capital Have an Economic Payoff? A Cross-Country Investigation. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 112(4): 1251-1288 Kong, T. 2007. A Selective Review of Recent Developments in the Economic Growth Literature. Asian-Pacific Economic Literature 21(1): 1-33. Korkmaz, T., Çevik, İ. E. and Birkan, E. 2010. Financial Openness Impact on Economic Growth and Financial Crisis: The Case of Turkey. Journal of Yasar University 17(5): 2821 ‐28 Kwan, C. C. Andy, Wu, Yangru and Zhang, Junxi. 1998. “An Exogeneity Analysis Of Financial Deepening And Economic Growth: Evidence From Hong Kong, South Korea And Taiwan.” The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development: An International and Comparative Review, 7(3): 339-354.
- Lensink, R. .2005. Uncertainty, Financial Development And Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis. Organisations and Management (SOM), Researh Paper,No:187693. Libman, A. 2010. Democracy, Size of Bureaucracy, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Russian Regions. Center for Doctoral Studies in Economics Discussion Paper, No:61. Ma, H. 1998. Inflation, Uncertainty and Growth in Colombia. IMF Working Paper,No:WP/98/161. Mahmood, I., Ehsanullah, M. and Ahmed, H. 2011. Exchange Rate Volatility and Macroeconomic Variables in Pakistan. Business Management Dynamics 1(2): 11-22. Mougani, G. 2012. An Analysis of the Impact of Financial Integration on Economic Activity and Macroeconomic Volatility in Africa within the Financial Globalization Contexts. African Development Bank No:144. Mundlak, Y. 1978. On the Pooling of Time Series and Cross Section Data. Econometrica, 46(1): 69-85. Nas, F. T. and Perry, J. M. 2000. Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in Turkey:1960-1998. Contemporary Economic Policy18(2): 170-180. Pesaran, M. H. 2007. A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics 22: 265–312. Pesaran, M. Hashem,. A. Ullah and T. Yamagata. 2008. “A Bias-Adjusted LM Test of Error Cross-Section Independence," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, Vol. 11(1):105-127.
- Putnam, D. R. 1993. The Prosperous Community: Social Capital and Public Life. The American Prospect. http://xroads.virginia.edu/~HYPER/DETOC/assoc/13putn.html Erişim Tarihi: 13.10.2012. Rodrik, D.1999. Where Did All the Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict and Growth Collopses. Journal of Economic Growth, 4(4): 385-411. Rodrik, D. 2002. Institutions, Integration, And Geography: In Search of The Deep Determinants of Economic Growth. An Introduction to an Edited Volume of Analytic Growth Narratives. http://www.wcfia.harvard.edu/node/588 Erişim Tarihi 20.04.2012 . Rodrik, D., A. Subramanian and Trebbi, F. 2004. “ Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions Over Geography and Integration in Economic Development”, Journal of Economic Growth, 9(2):131-165. Rodriguez, F. and Rodrik, D. 2000. Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic’s Guide to The Cross-National Evidence. NBER No:7081. Sachs, J. and Warner, A. 1995. Economic Reform and The Process of Global Integration. Brooking Papers Of Economic Activity. 26(1): 1-118. Schnabl, G. 2007. Exchange Rate Volatility and Growth in Small Open Economies at the EMU Periphery. European Central Bank Working Paper Series No:773. Snowdon, B. and Vane, H. 2005. Modern Macroeconomics: Its Origins, Development And Current State, Edward Elgar Publishing, Cambridge. Tavares, A. J. 2004. Institutions and Economic Growth in Portugal: A Quantitative Exploration. Portuguese Economic Journal 3(1): 49–79. Temple, J. 1999. The New Growth Evidence. Journal of Economic Literature, 37(1): 112-1
- Ogujiuba, K., Kanayo, O., O., George and Adenuga O. A. 2004. Is Trade Openness Valid for Nigeria's Long-Run Growth?: A Cointegration Approach. Central Bank of Nigeria Working Paper No: 0412009 Özkan, F. ve Tarı, R. 2011. The Impact of Legal and Institutional Reforms on Turkish Economy After 2001. Zonguldak Karaelmas University Journal of Social Sciences 7(14): 1Utkulu, U. ve Kahyaoğlu, H. 2005. Trade and financial openness affect to economic growth in which direction in Turkey. Turkish Economic Association.No:2005/13. Unsal, M. Erdal (2007). Economic Growth. Imaj Press, Ankara. Vural, M. B. 2007. Effect of Institutional Coordination on Economic Growth , Dokuz Eylül Universtiy Journal of Faculty of Busines8(1): 1-29. Yapraklı, S. 2007. The Relationship Between Trade and Financial Openness And Economic Growth: Evidence of Turkey. İstanbul University Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, 5: 67-89. Yapraklı, S. 2008. The Effect of Institutional Structure On Economic Growth: An Application For Upper-Middle Income Countries. Ege Academic Review 8(1): 301-307. Zak, J. P. and Knack, S. 2001. Trust and Growth. The Economic Journal, 111( 470): 295-3
THE IMPACTS OF INSTITUTIONS, OPENNESS AND MACROECONOMIC STABILITY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS ON MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES
Yıl 2014,
Sayı: 20, 104 - 123, 02.12.2014
Fatih Kaplan
,
Sevda Yapraklı
Öz
This study aims to analyze the impacts of indirect determinants such as institutions, trade-financial openness and macroeconomic stability on economic growth in 48 middle income countries. With this purpose, the impacts of the ten indicators in total belonging to the aforesaid variables for the term of 2002-2011 on economic growth are econometrically analyzed by using panel data analyses. According to the results of the analysis, institutions (political stability and absence of violence, regulatory quality and rule of law), trade and financial openness (M2/GDP), and macroeconomic stability (central government revenues /GDP) affect economic growth in a positive way. The results of the analysis show that institutions, openness and macroeconomic stability in middle income countries contribute to economic growth but that the level of this contribution is low.
Kaynakça
- Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S. and Robinson A.J. 2005. Institutions as the Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth. Ed. Aghion, P. and Durlauf, S.N. Handbook of Economic Growth, Elsevier: 368-472. Adak, M. 2010. Public Debt and Economic Growth: The Case of Turkey. Maliye Dergisi 159(2): 233-243. Alfano, M. R. and Baraldi A. L. 2011. Political Competition and Economic Growth: Evidence from Italy. SSRN Working Paper,SSRN-id1751066. Baltagi, H. B. 2005. Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, John Wiley Sons Inc., Chichester . Barro, J. R..1996. Determinants of Growth: A Cross-Country Emprical Study. NBER Working Paper, No: 5698. Bashar, K. M. R. O. and Khan, H. 2007. Liberalization and Growth: An Econometric Study of Bangladesh. U21Global Working Paper Series, No: 001/200.
- Beşkaya, A. ve Manan, O. 2009. A Time Series Analysis Of The Nexus Between Economic Freedom and Democracy And Economic Performance: The Turkish Case Zonguldak Karaelmas University, U Journal of Social Sciences 5(10): 47–76. Bloch, H. and Tang, H.K. S. 2004. Deep Determinants of Economic Growth: Institutions, Geography and Openness to Trade. Progress in Development Studies 4(3): 2452 Brown, B. M. and Forsythe, B. A. 1974. Robust Tests For Equality of Variances. Journal of the American Statistical Association 69(346): 364-367. Cavalcanti, V. T., Magalh˜aes M. A. and Tavares, A. J. 2008. Institutions and Economic Development In Brazil. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 48(2): 412–432. Crosby, M. 2000. Exchange Rate Volatility and Macroeconomic Performance in Hong Kong. Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research Working Papers, No:032000. Din, M., Ghani, E. and Siddique, O. 2003. Openness and Economic Growth in Pakistan. The Pakistan Development Review 42(4): 795-807. Driscoll, J. C., and A. C. Kraay. 1998. Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation with Spatially Dependent Panel Data. Review of Economics and Statistics, 80: 549–560. Domaç, İ. and Shabsigh, G. 1999. Real Exchange Rate Behavior and Economic Growth: Evidence from Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia. IMF Working Paper, No: WP/99/40. Easterly, W.2001. Can Institutions Resolve Ethnic Conflict?. Economic Development and Cultural Change 49(4): 687-706. Easterly, W., Ritzan, J. and Woolcock, M. 2006. Social Cohesion, Institutions, and Growth. Economics & Politics 18(2): 103-120.
- Faria , A. J., Paula, F., Luiz, P. ,C.C. Manoel and Meyer, R.T. 2011. Financial Liberalization, Economic Performance And Macroeconomic Stability in Brazil: An Assessment Of The Recent Period. 37th Brazilian Economics Meeting, Brazil. Fischer, S.1993. The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth. NBER Working Paper No. 4565. Frees, E. 1995. Assessing cross-sectional correlation in panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 69: 393–414. Frees E.W. 2004. “Longitudinal and Panel Data: Analysis and Applications in the Social Sciences”, Cambridge University Press. Friedman, M. 1937. The Use of Ranks to Avoid the Assumption of Normality Implicit in the Analysis of Variance. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 32: 675–701. Fountas, S., Karanasos, M. and Kim, J. 2006. Inflation Uncertainty, Output Growth Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 68(3): 319–343. Glaeser, L. E., Porta, L. R., Lopez-de-Silane, F. and Shleifer, A. 2004. Do Institutions Cause Growth?. Journal of Economic Growth 9(3): 271-303. Greene, H. W. 2003. Econometric Analysis, Prentice Hall, New Jersey. Guillaumet, P. and Richaud, A. 2001. Openness and Economic Growth: The Case of France Since 1850. VIth Spring Meeting of Young Economists. Hausman, A. J. 1978. Specification Tests in Econometrics. Econometrica 46 :125112
- Helliwell, F. J. and Putnam D. R. 1995. Economic Growth and Social Capital in Italy. Eastern Economic Journal 21(3): 295-307. Hoechle, D. 2007. “Robust Standard Errors for Panel Regressions with CrossSectional Dependence”, Stata Journal, 7:1–31. Huang, Y. and Wang, X. 2010. Financial Repression and Economic Growth in China. China Growth Centre (CGC) Discussion Paper Series, No:5. Ismihan, M., Metin-Ozcan, K. and Tansel, A. 2005. The Role Of Macroeconomic Instability in Public And Private Capital Accumulation And Growth: The Case Of Turkey 1963-1999. Applied Economics 37(2): 239-251. Keşkek, S. ve Özhan, M. 2004. Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty and Economic Growth. Journal of Active, 37: 1-18. King G. R. and Levine, R. 1993. Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 108(3): 717-733. Knack, S. and Keefer, P. 1997. Does Social Capital Have an Economic Payoff? A Cross-Country Investigation. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 112(4): 1251-1288 Kong, T. 2007. A Selective Review of Recent Developments in the Economic Growth Literature. Asian-Pacific Economic Literature 21(1): 1-33. Korkmaz, T., Çevik, İ. E. and Birkan, E. 2010. Financial Openness Impact on Economic Growth and Financial Crisis: The Case of Turkey. Journal of Yasar University 17(5): 2821 ‐28 Kwan, C. C. Andy, Wu, Yangru and Zhang, Junxi. 1998. “An Exogeneity Analysis Of Financial Deepening And Economic Growth: Evidence From Hong Kong, South Korea And Taiwan.” The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development: An International and Comparative Review, 7(3): 339-354.
- Lensink, R. .2005. Uncertainty, Financial Development And Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis. Organisations and Management (SOM), Researh Paper,No:187693. Libman, A. 2010. Democracy, Size of Bureaucracy, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Russian Regions. Center for Doctoral Studies in Economics Discussion Paper, No:61. Ma, H. 1998. Inflation, Uncertainty and Growth in Colombia. IMF Working Paper,No:WP/98/161. Mahmood, I., Ehsanullah, M. and Ahmed, H. 2011. Exchange Rate Volatility and Macroeconomic Variables in Pakistan. Business Management Dynamics 1(2): 11-22. Mougani, G. 2012. An Analysis of the Impact of Financial Integration on Economic Activity and Macroeconomic Volatility in Africa within the Financial Globalization Contexts. African Development Bank No:144. Mundlak, Y. 1978. On the Pooling of Time Series and Cross Section Data. Econometrica, 46(1): 69-85. Nas, F. T. and Perry, J. M. 2000. Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in Turkey:1960-1998. Contemporary Economic Policy18(2): 170-180. Pesaran, M. H. 2007. A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics 22: 265–312. Pesaran, M. Hashem,. A. Ullah and T. Yamagata. 2008. “A Bias-Adjusted LM Test of Error Cross-Section Independence," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, Vol. 11(1):105-127.
- Putnam, D. R. 1993. The Prosperous Community: Social Capital and Public Life. The American Prospect. http://xroads.virginia.edu/~HYPER/DETOC/assoc/13putn.html Erişim Tarihi: 13.10.2012. Rodrik, D.1999. Where Did All the Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict and Growth Collopses. Journal of Economic Growth, 4(4): 385-411. Rodrik, D. 2002. Institutions, Integration, And Geography: In Search of The Deep Determinants of Economic Growth. An Introduction to an Edited Volume of Analytic Growth Narratives. http://www.wcfia.harvard.edu/node/588 Erişim Tarihi 20.04.2012 . Rodrik, D., A. Subramanian and Trebbi, F. 2004. “ Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions Over Geography and Integration in Economic Development”, Journal of Economic Growth, 9(2):131-165. Rodriguez, F. and Rodrik, D. 2000. Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic’s Guide to The Cross-National Evidence. NBER No:7081. Sachs, J. and Warner, A. 1995. Economic Reform and The Process of Global Integration. Brooking Papers Of Economic Activity. 26(1): 1-118. Schnabl, G. 2007. Exchange Rate Volatility and Growth in Small Open Economies at the EMU Periphery. European Central Bank Working Paper Series No:773. Snowdon, B. and Vane, H. 2005. Modern Macroeconomics: Its Origins, Development And Current State, Edward Elgar Publishing, Cambridge. Tavares, A. J. 2004. Institutions and Economic Growth in Portugal: A Quantitative Exploration. Portuguese Economic Journal 3(1): 49–79. Temple, J. 1999. The New Growth Evidence. Journal of Economic Literature, 37(1): 112-1
- Ogujiuba, K., Kanayo, O., O., George and Adenuga O. A. 2004. Is Trade Openness Valid for Nigeria's Long-Run Growth?: A Cointegration Approach. Central Bank of Nigeria Working Paper No: 0412009 Özkan, F. ve Tarı, R. 2011. The Impact of Legal and Institutional Reforms on Turkish Economy After 2001. Zonguldak Karaelmas University Journal of Social Sciences 7(14): 1Utkulu, U. ve Kahyaoğlu, H. 2005. Trade and financial openness affect to economic growth in which direction in Turkey. Turkish Economic Association.No:2005/13. Unsal, M. Erdal (2007). Economic Growth. Imaj Press, Ankara. Vural, M. B. 2007. Effect of Institutional Coordination on Economic Growth , Dokuz Eylül Universtiy Journal of Faculty of Busines8(1): 1-29. Yapraklı, S. 2007. The Relationship Between Trade and Financial Openness And Economic Growth: Evidence of Turkey. İstanbul University Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, 5: 67-89. Yapraklı, S. 2008. The Effect of Institutional Structure On Economic Growth: An Application For Upper-Middle Income Countries. Ege Academic Review 8(1): 301-307. Zak, J. P. and Knack, S. 2001. Trust and Growth. The Economic Journal, 111( 470): 295-3