FORECASTING OF TURKEY’S ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION USING SUPPORT VECTOR REGRESSION TRAINED WITH GENETIC ALGORITHM

Abstract

Energy is a very important factor in terms of sustaining the economic development for developing and industrialized countries. Electricity is one of the most important forms of energy for industrialization and improvement of living standards. The estimation and modeling of electricity consumption has a special importance in Turkey which is a foreign-dependent country in energy. In this study a forecasting application is made by using Turkey’s electricity consumption, population, import, export and gross domestic product between 1975-2014, employing support vector regression method. By using genetic algorithm to choose the parameters of SVR, the method outperforms significantly. 

Keywords

• Electricity consumption,Support Vector Regression,Genetic Algorithm,Prediction

GENETİK ALGORİTMA İLE EĞİTİLMİŞ DESTEK VEKTÖR REGRESYON KULLANILARAK TÜRKİYE’NİN ELEKTRİK TÜKETİM TAHMİNİ

Abstract

Enerji, gelişmekte olan ve endüstrileşen ülkeler için ekonomik kalkın- manın sürdürülebilmesi açısından çok önemli bir faktördür. Elektrik ener- jisi de endüstrileşme ve yaşam standardının yükseltilmesi için en önemli enerji formlarından biridir. Enerji bakımından dışa bağımlı bir ülke olan Türkiye’de elektrik tüketiminin modellenmesi ve tahmin edilmesi ayrı bir öneme sahiptir. Bu çalışmada destek vektör regresyon yöntemiyle Türki- ye’nin 1975-2014 yılları arası elektrik tüketimi, nüfusu, ithalat, ihracat ve GSYH verileri kullanılarak bir tahmin uygulaması yapılmıştır. DVR para- metrelerinin seçiminde genetik algoritma yardımıyla yöntem performansı önemli ölçüde arttırılmıştır. 

Keywords

• Elektrik tüketimi,Destek vektör regresyon,Ge- netik algoritma,Tahmin

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