Türkiye’de Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de finansal gelişme ile iktisadi büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin yönünü ve boyutunu ampirik olarak analiz etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Türkiye’de finansal gelişme ile iktisadi büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin araştırılmasında kullanılan veri seti yıllık olarak elde edilmiş olup, World Development Indicators veritabanından alınmıştır. Gözlem dönemi, 1960 ile 2009 yıllarını kapsamaktadır. Ampirik analizde iktisadi büyüme olarak Reel Gayri Safi Yurt İçi Hâsıla’daki artış oranı (Y) değişkeni, finansal gelişmişlik göstergesi olarak ise M2/GDP değişkeni kullanılmıştır. Finansal gelişme ile iktisadi büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığı Toda ve Yamamoto (1995) tarafından geliştirilen nedensellik analizi yardımıyla araştırılmıştır. Toda ve Yamamoto (1995) tarafından geliştirilen nedensellik analizinin kullanılmasının nedeni bu yaklaşımda birim kök ve eşbütünleşme testlerine ihtiyaç duyulmamasıdır. Toda ve Yamamoto (1995) nedensellik analizinde düzey değişkenlerle kurulan genişletilmiş vektör otoregresif modeller (VAR) kullanılmaktadır ve bu modeller yardımıyla değişkenler arasındaki dinamik ilişkiler araştırılabilmektedir. Ayrıca bu yöntemde değişkenler arasındaki olası eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığı analiz sonuçlarını etkilememektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Finansal Gelişme,İktisadi Büyüme,Toda ve Yamamoto Analizi

Abstract

This study aims at an empiric analysis of the direction and magnitude of the causality relationship between financial development and economic growth in Turkey. The data set employed for researching the causality factor between financial progress and economic expansion in Turkey were obtained on an annual basis, and derived from the data-base of the World Development Indicators. The observation period encompasses the era between 1960 and 2009. For the purposes of the empiric analysis, the (Y) variable was taken to illustrate the rate of increase in the Real Gross Domestic Product, as a manifestation of economic growth, and the M2/GDP variable as the indicator for the level of financial development. The existence and prevalence of the causality correlation between financial development and economic growth was researched with the aid of the causality analysis developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995). The pretext for the utilization of the causality analysis model developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) is attributable to the fact that there will be no necessity for unit root and co-integration tests in this approach. In their causality analyses, Toda and Yamamoto (1995) used expanded vector auto-regressive models (VAR) structured with level variables, as these models conveniently enable the verification of dynamic relationships between the variables. Furthermore, in this method, the existence of a potential co-integration relationship bears no impact on the findings of the analysis. According to the results of the empiric study conducted in accordance with the methodology furthered by Toda and Yamamoto (1995), it may be suitably argued that there exists a relationship in Turkey, from financial development towards economic growth.

Keywords

• Financial Development,Economic Growth,Toda ve Yamamoto Analysis

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