Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde İç Borçlanma Dinamikleri: Panel Veri Analizi

Öz

Gelişmekte olan ülkeler, geçmişte genellikle büyük miktardaki dış borçlanmalarından kaynaklanan çok sayıda ekonomik kriz yaşadılar. Buna uygun şekilde bu ülkelerde borçlanma konusunda ilgi, dış borçlanma üzerine odaklanmıştı. Ancak gelişmekte olan ülkelerde 1990’lı yılların ortalarından itibaren iç borçlanma artmaktadır ve buna bağlı olarak kamu borçlarında ilgi, iç borçlanmaya kaymaktadır.
Bu bağlamda çalışmada, 17 gelişmekte olan ülkede 1980-2010 döneminde kamu iç borç stokunun gelişimi ve bunu etkileyen ekonomik dinamikler, panel veri analiziyle incelenmektedir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre, iç borç stoku ile GSYİH arasında pozitif yönlü, bütçe açığı/GSYİH ve enflasyon oranı ile negatif yönlü bir ilişki bulunmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İç borçlanma,panel veri analizi

DOMESTIC DEBT DYNAMICS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

Abstract

Developing countries in the past, experienced many economic crises that usually caused by large amounts of external debt. Accordingly, interest on the debt in these countries focused on external borrowing. However, in developing countries, since the mid-1990s, due to increased domestic public debt interest is shifting to domestic borrowing.
In this study, using the data of 17 selected developing economies for the period of 1980-2010, the development of domestic debt stock is analyzed and economic dynamics of the domestic public stock is is tested with the methodology of panel data analysis. The analysis indicates that GDP increase the domestic debt, while budget deficit/GDP and inflation rate reduce it.

Keywords

• External debt,Panel Data Analysis

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