FIELDSTEIN-HORIOKA YAKLAŞIMINA GÖRE TÜRKİYE'DE TASARRUF YATIRIM İLİŞKİSİ VE HATA DÜZELTME ANALİZİ (1962-2003)

Yıl 2005, Sayı: 47, 107 - 123, 10.10.2011

Nilgün Çil Yavuz

Öz

Bu çalışmada Türkiye için Feldstein-Horioka yaklaşımına göre tasarruf
yatırım ilişkisi araştırılmaktadır. 1962-2003 dönemini kapsayan çalışmada, hem
Feldstein-Horioka’nın kullandığı model hem de Jansen-Schulze ve Jansen
tarafından geliştirilmiş hata düzeltme modeli tahmin edilmiştir. Geleneksel
regresyon modelinin sonucuna göre tasarruf tutum katsayının değerinin bire yakın
olduğu saptanmıştır. Bu sonuç Feldstein-Horioka yaklaşımına göre, sermaye
hareketliliğinin düşük olduğunun işaretidir. Hata düzeltme modelinin tahmin
sonucuna göre tasarruf ile yatırımlar arasında istatistiksel açıdan anlamlı kısa ve
uzun dönem ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Her iki modelin sonucu birbiri ile tutarlıdır
ve Türkiye’de tam bir sermaye hareketliliğinin bahsedilemez.

Kaynakça

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