Precipitation Forecast with Artificial Neural Networks Method

Abstract

Events in the atmosphere from past to present – wind, precipitation, humidity, temperature – have almost always been the subject of research to create a forecast in regions. The rapid development of the technological field in terms of software and hardware brings methods and techniques to be used in research. One of them is Artificial Neural Networks. In this study, precipitation data were estimated using the Feed Forward Backpropagation method of Artificial Neural Networks method using past data of meteorological parameters, and they were compared with the data of multiple linear regression analysis. Based on these models, six different models were studied, and regression and performance evaluations were made. While the error average of multiple linear regression is 0.2413, this value is 0.076 in artificial neural networks, and the correlation average for both is 0.90. As a result of this study, the best model has a coefficient of determination of 0.95 and an error value of 0.18 in multiple linear regression, as well as a coefficient of certainty of 0.99 and an error value of 0.0438 in artificial neural networks; It has been understood that the 1st model, which has 6 data sets as the input layer, exhibits the best performance.

Keywords

• Regression
• artificial neural networks
• precipitation forecast

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