Forecasting Wind Speed with Autoregressive and Long-Short Term Memory Neural Network Models

Serkan Ansay; Bayram Köse; İbrahim Işıklı; Ceyda Mülayim; Bekir Ertilav

doi:10.61969/jai.1789834

Forecasting Wind Speed with Autoregressive and Long-Short Term Memory Neural Network Models

Abstract

The growing need for sustainable and efficient energy systems has intensified interest in accurate renewable energy forecasting. In particular, wind speed forecasting is vital for the reliable integration of wind energy into power systems. This study investigates and compares the performance of three different approaches for wind speed prediction: Autoregressive (AR), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks, and a hybrid AR–LSTM model. Real wind speed data collected from İzmir, Turkey, were used in the experiments. The AR model, a linear statistical method, was evaluated alongside the LSTM model, a deep learning method capable of capturing long-term temporal dependencies. A hybrid model was also developed to benefit from the strengths of both. Additionally, noise reduction techniques such as Moving Average and Gaussian Filtering were applied to enhance data quality and model accuracy. The results demonstrated that the LSTM model achieved the lowest RMSE value (0.084), outperforming both the AR and hybrid models. This suggests that LSTM-based models are more suitable for capturing complex and nonlinear patterns in wind speed data. The findings contribute to the development of intelligent forecasting systems for efficient renewable energy management.

Keywords

Ethical Statement

This research did not involve human participants or animals and therefore did not require ethical approval.

Thanks

The authors would like to thank the General Directorate of Meteorology for their valuable contributions.

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Deep Learning, Neural Networks, Modelling and Simulation, Artificial Intelligence (Other)

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Serkan Ansay ^*
0000-0002-3368-3886
Türkiye

Bayram Köse
0000-0003-0256-5921
Türkiye

İbrahim Işıklı
0000-0002-0778-7163
Türkiye

Ceyda Mülayim
0009-0005-3780-7486
Türkiye

Bekir Ertilav
0009-0003-5027-5061
Türkiye

Publication Date

December 31, 2025

Submission Date

September 25, 2025

Acceptance Date

December 25, 2025

Published in Issue

Year 2025 Volume: 9 Number: 1

DOI

https://doi.org/10.61969/jai.1789834

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA44KU36ZA

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Ansay, S., Köse, B., Işıklı, İ., Mülayim, C., & Ertilav, B. (2025). Forecasting Wind Speed with Autoregressive and Long-Short Term Memory Neural Network Models. Journal of AI, 9(1), 98-121. https://doi.org/10.61969/jai.1789834

AMA

1.Ansay S, Köse B, Işıklı İ, Mülayim C, Ertilav B. Forecasting Wind Speed with Autoregressive and Long-Short Term Memory Neural Network Models. Journal of AI. 2025;9(1):98-121. doi:10.61969/jai.1789834

Chicago

Ansay, Serkan, Bayram Köse, İbrahim Işıklı, Ceyda Mülayim, and Bekir Ertilav. 2025. “Forecasting Wind Speed With Autoregressive and Long-Short Term Memory Neural Network Models”. Journal of AI 9 (1): 98-121. https://doi.org/10.61969/jai.1789834.

EndNote

Ansay S, Köse B, Işıklı İ, Mülayim C, Ertilav B (December 1, 2025) Forecasting Wind Speed with Autoregressive and Long-Short Term Memory Neural Network Models. Journal of AI 9 1 98–121.

IEEE

[1]S. Ansay, B. Köse, İ. Işıklı, C. Mülayim, and B. Ertilav, “Forecasting Wind Speed with Autoregressive and Long-Short Term Memory Neural Network Models”, Journal of AI, vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 98–121, Dec. 2025, doi: 10.61969/jai.1789834.

ISNAD

Ansay, Serkan - Köse, Bayram - Işıklı, İbrahim - Mülayim, Ceyda - Ertilav, Bekir. “Forecasting Wind Speed With Autoregressive and Long-Short Term Memory Neural Network Models”. Journal of AI 9/1 (December 1, 2025): 98-121. https://doi.org/10.61969/jai.1789834.

JAMA

1.Ansay S, Köse B, Işıklı İ, Mülayim C, Ertilav B. Forecasting Wind Speed with Autoregressive and Long-Short Term Memory Neural Network Models. Journal of AI. 2025;9:98–121.

MLA

Ansay, Serkan, et al. “Forecasting Wind Speed With Autoregressive and Long-Short Term Memory Neural Network Models”. Journal of AI, vol. 9, no. 1, Dec. 2025, pp. 98-121, doi:10.61969/jai.1789834.

Vancouver

1.Serkan Ansay, Bayram Köse, İbrahim Işıklı, Ceyda Mülayim, Bekir Ertilav. Forecasting Wind Speed with Autoregressive and Long-Short Term Memory Neural Network Models. Journal of AI. 2025 Dec. 1;9(1):98-121. doi:10.61969/jai.1789834