Turboshaft Engine Weight Estimation Model Development Based on Statistical Data

Mustafa Karabacak; Onder Turan

doi:10.30518/jav.1771065

Turboshaft Engine Weight Estimation Model Development Based on Statistical Data

Abstract

This study is conducted to address the inability to predict design objectives, such as weight and cost, that cannot be analytically determined during the preliminary design phase of jet engines. For this purpose, a model establishing the relationship between the design parameters used in the preliminary design stage and engine weight is developed. The engine design parameters affecting weight, along with the corresponding weight data, are obtained from engine data available in the literature, and a database is formed. Using this database, a model is developed in the MATLAB® environment through a regression method. During model development, two criteria reported in the literature—the minimum error criterion and the weight trend reflection criterion—are employed. The distinguishing feature of this study and its contribution to the literature lies in the application of weight model development criteria to the development of a turboshaft engine weight model, thereby introducing a turboshaft engine weight model to support the turboshaft engine design process. To increase model accuracy, turboshaft engines are classified into two categories: light-weight and heavy-weight engines. For the light-weight turboshaft engine category, a model is developed based on 48 engine cases, yielding a maximum error (E) of approximately ±40%, a Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 35, an R-Squared (R^2) value of 0.255, and an Adjusted R-Squared (〖R^2〗_adj) value of 0.238. For the heavy-weight turboshaft engine category, a model is developed based on 16 engine cases, resulting in a maximum E of approximately ±30%, an RMSE of 36.1, an R^2 value of 0.306, and an 〖R^2〗_adj value of 0.256. Examination of the statistical parameters indicates that the model’s ability to represent reality is limited; this outcome is a natural consequence of developing a model based on a relatively small sample size, and differences in the technological levels of the engines included in the database constitute an additional contributing factor.

Keywords

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Aerospace Engineering (Other)

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Mustafa Karabacak ^*
0000-0002-3301-9862
Türkiye

Onder Turan
0000-0003-0303-4313
Türkiye

Early Pub Date

May 30, 2026

Publication Date

June 27, 2026

Submission Date

August 23, 2025

Acceptance Date

March 4, 2026

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Volume: 10 Number: 2

DOI

https://doi.org/10.30518/jav.1771065

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA24HW92MR

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Karabacak, M., & Turan, O. (2026). Turboshaft Engine Weight Estimation Model Development Based on Statistical Data. Journal of Aviation, 10(2), 219-227. https://doi.org/10.30518/jav.1771065

AMA

1.Karabacak M, Turan O. Turboshaft Engine Weight Estimation Model Development Based on Statistical Data. JAV. 2026;10(2):219-227. doi:10.30518/jav.1771065

Chicago

Karabacak, Mustafa, and Onder Turan. 2026. “Turboshaft Engine Weight Estimation Model Development Based on Statistical Data”. Journal of Aviation 10 (2): 219-27. https://doi.org/10.30518/jav.1771065.

EndNote

Karabacak M, Turan O (June 1, 2026) Turboshaft Engine Weight Estimation Model Development Based on Statistical Data. Journal of Aviation 10 2 219–227.

IEEE

[1]M. Karabacak and O. Turan, “Turboshaft Engine Weight Estimation Model Development Based on Statistical Data”, JAV, vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 219–227, June 2026, doi: 10.30518/jav.1771065.

ISNAD

Karabacak, Mustafa - Turan, Onder. “Turboshaft Engine Weight Estimation Model Development Based on Statistical Data”. Journal of Aviation 10/2 (June 1, 2026): 219-227. https://doi.org/10.30518/jav.1771065.

JAMA

1.Karabacak M, Turan O. Turboshaft Engine Weight Estimation Model Development Based on Statistical Data. JAV. 2026;10:219–227.

MLA

Karabacak, Mustafa, and Onder Turan. “Turboshaft Engine Weight Estimation Model Development Based on Statistical Data”. Journal of Aviation, vol. 10, no. 2, June 2026, pp. 219-27, doi:10.30518/jav.1771065.

Vancouver

1.Mustafa Karabacak, Onder Turan. Turboshaft Engine Weight Estimation Model Development Based on Statistical Data. JAV. 2026 Jun. 1;10(2):219-27. doi:10.30518/jav.1771065