A Methodological Framework for Financial Feasibility and Stochastic Modeling of Performance-Based Logistics (PBL) in Aviation

Ömer Kemerlioğlu; Aylin Kemerlioğlu

doi:10.30518/jav.1823694

A Methodological Framework for Financial Feasibility and Stochastic Modeling of Performance-Based Logistics (PBL) in Aviation

Abstract

This study investigates the financial feasibility and operational implications of Performance-Based Logistics (PBL) contracts within the aerospace industry, addressing the critical gap between theoretical frameworks and practical financial modelling. Unlike traditional transactional "pay-per-part" models, PBL aligns service provider incentives with system availability and long-term reliability. This research provides a robust methodological framework for analyzing PBL contracts, incorporating a stochastic spare parts calculation using the Poisson Distribution and a comprehensive five-year financial projection for a complex aircraft avionics suite. By critically evaluating the strategic trade-offs between front-loaded R&D investments and the subsequent breakeven point, the study demonstrates how targeted interventions in high-impact failure nodes can optimize both provider profitability and fleet readiness. The findings reveal that the "Learning Curve" effect and the systematic reduction of failure rates are structural necessities for achieving mutual gains. This research moves beyond descriptive analysis to offer a practical, data-driven guide for calculating the financial and operational sustainability of PBL applications in high-reliability aviation systems.

Keywords

References

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Aerospace Engineering (Other)

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Ömer Kemerlioğlu ^*
0009-0001-3910-8938
Türkiye

Aylin Kemerlioğlu
0009-0005-8345-698X
Türkiye

Early Pub Date

February 27, 2026

Publication Date

February 27, 2026

Submission Date

November 14, 2025

Acceptance Date

January 27, 2026

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Volume: 10 Number: 1

DOI

https://doi.org/10.30518/jav.1823694

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA37YA44NB

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Kemerlioğlu, Ö., & Kemerlioğlu, A. (2026). A Methodological Framework for Financial Feasibility and Stochastic Modeling of Performance-Based Logistics (PBL) in Aviation. Journal of Aviation, 10(1), 139-145. https://doi.org/10.30518/jav.1823694

AMA

1.Kemerlioğlu Ö, Kemerlioğlu A. A Methodological Framework for Financial Feasibility and Stochastic Modeling of Performance-Based Logistics (PBL) in Aviation. JAV. 2026;10(1):139-145. doi:10.30518/jav.1823694

Chicago

Kemerlioğlu, Ömer, and Aylin Kemerlioğlu. 2026. “A Methodological Framework for Financial Feasibility and Stochastic Modeling of Performance-Based Logistics (PBL) in Aviation”. Journal of Aviation 10 (1): 139-45. https://doi.org/10.30518/jav.1823694.

EndNote

Kemerlioğlu Ö, Kemerlioğlu A (February 1, 2026) A Methodological Framework for Financial Feasibility and Stochastic Modeling of Performance-Based Logistics (PBL) in Aviation. Journal of Aviation 10 1 139–145.

IEEE

[1]Ö. Kemerlioğlu and A. Kemerlioğlu, “A Methodological Framework for Financial Feasibility and Stochastic Modeling of Performance-Based Logistics (PBL) in Aviation”, JAV, vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 139–145, Feb. 2026, doi: 10.30518/jav.1823694.

ISNAD

Kemerlioğlu, Ömer - Kemerlioğlu, Aylin. “A Methodological Framework for Financial Feasibility and Stochastic Modeling of Performance-Based Logistics (PBL) in Aviation”. Journal of Aviation 10/1 (February 1, 2026): 139-145. https://doi.org/10.30518/jav.1823694.

JAMA

1.Kemerlioğlu Ö, Kemerlioğlu A. A Methodological Framework for Financial Feasibility and Stochastic Modeling of Performance-Based Logistics (PBL) in Aviation. JAV. 2026;10:139–145.

MLA

Kemerlioğlu, Ömer, and Aylin Kemerlioğlu. “A Methodological Framework for Financial Feasibility and Stochastic Modeling of Performance-Based Logistics (PBL) in Aviation”. Journal of Aviation, vol. 10, no. 1, Feb. 2026, pp. 139-45, doi:10.30518/jav.1823694.

Vancouver

1.Ömer Kemerlioğlu, Aylin Kemerlioğlu. A Methodological Framework for Financial Feasibility and Stochastic Modeling of Performance-Based Logistics (PBL) in Aviation. JAV. 2026 Feb. 1;10(1):139-45. doi:10.30518/jav.1823694