Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaotic Microstructure of European Airline Stocks: Evidence from Recurrence Quantification Analysis

Eyyüp Ensari Şahin

doi:10.30518/jav.1884951

Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaotic Microstructure of European Airline Stocks: Evidence from Recurrence Quantification Analysis

Abstract

This study investigates the nonlinear dynamics and chaotic microstructure of ten major European airline stocks—comprising eight European carriers and two Turkish airlines—over the period from January 2015 to January 2026, a timeframe that encompasses five structurally distinct crisis regimes: pre-pandemic stability, COVID-19 shock, recovery phase, Ukraine war impact, and post-war normalization. Employing a multi-method chaos framework that integrates Lyapunov exponents, Hurst exponents, BDS tests, and Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA)—including rolling-window and cross-recurrence extensions—the study addresses three core research questions: whether chaotic dynamics differ by business model, whether global crises induce permanent structural breaks, and whether Turkish airlines exhibit systematically distinct chaotic profiles from their European counterparts. The empirical results reveal heterogeneous chaos patterns: four carriers exhibit deterministic chaos while six display borderline or stable dynamics, challenging uniform business model categorizations. Crisis periods produce statistically significant and persistent structural transformations, with laminarity increasing 33% and entropy rising 28% between pre-COVID and post-war sub-periods, indicating regime shifts that do not revert to pre-pandemic baselines. Cross-recurrence analysis documents intensifying synchronization during crises, with post-war network density reaching complete integration and thereby eliminating diversification benefits. Turkish airlines demonstrate unexpected stability relative to their European peers, a pattern potentially attributable to domestic monetary policy buffering effects. Rolling-window analysis further reveals that determinism declines 30–40% prior to major market shocks, establishing RQA metrics as early warning indicators complementary to conventional volatility measures.

Keywords

Supporting Institution

This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

Ethical Statement

This study complies with research and publication ethics. No ethical approval was required as the study is based solely on publicly available secondary financial data and does not involve human participants, animals, or personal data.

Thanks

The author would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions, which helped improve the quality of this manuscript.

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Capital Market, International Finance

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Eyyüp Ensari Şahin ^*
0000-0003-2110-7571
Türkiye

Publication Date

June 27, 2026

Submission Date

February 9, 2026

Acceptance Date

May 19, 2026

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Volume: 10 Number: 2

DOI

https://doi.org/10.30518/jav.1884951

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA87BR58RP

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Şahin, E. E. (2026). Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaotic Microstructure of European Airline Stocks: Evidence from Recurrence Quantification Analysis. Journal of Aviation, 10(2), 393-404. https://doi.org/10.30518/jav.1884951

AMA

1.Şahin EE. Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaotic Microstructure of European Airline Stocks: Evidence from Recurrence Quantification Analysis. JAV. 2026;10(2):393-404. doi:10.30518/jav.1884951

Chicago

Şahin, Eyyüp Ensari. 2026. “Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaotic Microstructure of European Airline Stocks: Evidence from Recurrence Quantification Analysis”. Journal of Aviation 10 (2): 393-404. https://doi.org/10.30518/jav.1884951.

EndNote

Şahin EE (June 1, 2026) Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaotic Microstructure of European Airline Stocks: Evidence from Recurrence Quantification Analysis. Journal of Aviation 10 2 393–404.

IEEE

[1]E. E. Şahin, “Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaotic Microstructure of European Airline Stocks: Evidence from Recurrence Quantification Analysis”, JAV, vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 393–404, June 2026, doi: 10.30518/jav.1884951.

ISNAD

Şahin, Eyyüp Ensari. “Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaotic Microstructure of European Airline Stocks: Evidence from Recurrence Quantification Analysis”. Journal of Aviation 10/2 (June 1, 2026): 393-404. https://doi.org/10.30518/jav.1884951.

JAMA

1.Şahin EE. Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaotic Microstructure of European Airline Stocks: Evidence from Recurrence Quantification Analysis. JAV. 2026;10:393–404.

MLA

Şahin, Eyyüp Ensari. “Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaotic Microstructure of European Airline Stocks: Evidence from Recurrence Quantification Analysis”. Journal of Aviation, vol. 10, no. 2, June 2026, pp. 393-04, doi:10.30518/jav.1884951.

Vancouver

1.Eyyüp Ensari Şahin. Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaotic Microstructure of European Airline Stocks: Evidence from Recurrence Quantification Analysis. JAV. 2026 Jun. 1;10(2):393-404. doi:10.30518/jav.1884951