STATISTICAL ANALYSIS FOR IMPACTS OF ECONOMICAL CONDITIONS ON HOUSING MARKETS: AN EXAMPLE ON FRAGILE 5 COUNTRIES

Abstract

 In the year 2013, Morgan Stanley declared the Brazilian real, the Indian rupee, the Indonesian rupiah, the South African rand and the Turkish lira as the "Fragile Five," or the troubled emerging market currencies under the most pressure against the U.S. dollar. For those countries, housing market has been a key driver of growth and has been a steady and robust performer since the year 2000. The main purpose of this study is to investigate, modeling whether there is a long-run relationship between macroeconomic indicators and housing markets in Fragile Five countries by correlation analysis, regression, krigingmetamodelling for the twelve year period from 2002 to 2013. The findings of this paper would help government and property investors for creating more effective property management strategies in these countries.