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CASUAL RELATION BETWEEN NUMBER OF TOURISTS AND EXCHANGE RATES: AN IMPLEMENTATION FOR TURKEY

Year 2020, , 245 - 252, 30.09.2020

Rahmi Incekara

https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2020.1300

Abstract

Objective - The aim of this study is to determine the importance of foreign exchange inflow by examining the relationship between exchange rate and number of tourists with an econometric analysis. The effect of changing exchange rates on the number of tourists coming to Turkey, and whether the expenditures of the incoming tourists has an impact on the exchange rates is determined with an empirical analysis.
Methodology - Granger Causality Tests and the econometric model of Toda and Yamamoto were used in the study to analyze the relationship between tourist number and exchange rate. In addition, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test was also employed to determine the order stationarity of variables.
Findings - The study found a unilateral causality relationship between the number of tourists and the exchange rate. At this point, there is an unilateral causality relationship from the exchange rate to the number of tourists. While the exchange rate affects the number of tourists, the number of tourists does not affect the exchange rate.
Conclusion- In conclusion, it was stated with an econometric analysis that fluctuations in the exchange rate affect the number of tourists coming to Turkey and, the economic activities of tourists coming to Turkey do not affect the exchange rates.

Keywords

Tourism, tourist exchange rate Toda and Yamamoto Econometric model VAR analysis

References

  • Aktaş, A. Rıza, Kaplan, F. ve Kocaman, S. (2013).“Turizm ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Akdeniz Ülkeleri Üzerine Bir Panel Veri Analizi”, International Conference on Eurasian Economies, p.755-760.
  • Bahar, O. ve Bozkurt, K. (2010). “Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Turizm-Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi”, Anatolia: Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi, 21,(2), (Güz), s.255-265.
  • Barati E. ve H. Ranjbar (2016). Granger causality and dynamic relationship between the actual values of receipt derived from tourism, national income and exchange tares in selected countries in selected countries with tourist attraction. International business management, 10 (16), 3389-3395.
  • Belloumİ M. (2010), “The Relationship between Tourism Receipt, Real Effective Exchange Rate and Economic Growth in Tunisia”, International Journal of Tourism Research,12(5):550 – 560
  • Değer, M. Kemal (2006). “Turizme ve İhracata Dayalı Büyüme: 1980-2005 Türkiye Deneyimi”, Atatürk Üniversitesi, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 20, s.68-86.
  • Demirel, B., Bozdağ, E. G. ve İnci, A. G. (2020, June 5). Döviz Kurlarındaki Dalgalanmaların Gelen Turist Sayısına Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Retrieved from http://www.deu.edu.tr/userweb/iibf_kongre/dosyalar/demirel.pdf.
  • Dritsakis, N. (2004), Tourism as a Long-run Economic Growth Factor: an Empirical Investigation for Greece using Causality Analysis. Tourism Economics, 10, 305-316.
  • Erkan B., Kara, O. ve Harbalıoğlu, M. (2013). Türkiye’de Turizm Gelirlerinin Belirleyicileri. Akademik bakış dergisi, S. 39, 1-20.
  • Eugenio-Martin ve Morales (2004).Tourism and Economic Growth in Latin American Countries: A Panel Data Approach, Nota Di Lavoro 26.
  • Ghartey E. E. (2010), “Tourism, “Economic Growth and Monetary Policy in Jamaica”,11th Annual SALISES 2010 Conference in Port of Spain, Trinidad-Tobago, 24-26 March, 1-25.
  • Jayathilake Bandula P. M. (2013), “Determinants of Demand for International Tourism in Sri Lanka: An Econometric Evaluation”, International Journal of Business, Economics and Law, vol. 2, issue. 2, 22-27.
  • Kılıç, C. ve Bayar, Y. (2014). Effects of Real exchange rate volatility on tourism receipts and expenditures in Turkey. Advances in management & applied economics, Vol. 4, No. 1. 89-101.
  • Koyuncu F. T. (2015), “Turizm Gelirinin Türkiye’nin Makro Ekonomik Performansına Katkısı: Ekonometrik Bir Çözümleme”, Uluslararası Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, cilt. 8, sayı. 38, 959-968.
  • Mahmoudinia, D., Soderjani, E. S. & Pourshahabi, F. (2011). Economic growth, tourism receipts and exchange rate in MENA zone: Using panel causality technique. Iranian economic review, vol. 15, no.29, 129-146.
  • Mervar, A. ve Payne, J. (2007). Analysis of Foreign Tourism Demand for Croatian Destinations: Long-Run Elasticity Estimates, Tourism Economics, 13: 407-20.
  • Narayan, P.K. (2004). Economic Impact of Tourism on Fiji's Economy: Empirical Evidence from the Computable General Equilibrium Model. Tourism Economics, 10:419-33.
  • Nasir A. M., J. WU ve J. C. Guerrero (2015), “Economic Growth, Exchange Rate and Constrained Competiveness of the Tourism Sector in Andalucia”, International Journal of Management and Economics, No. 48, 84-100.
  • Patsouratis, V. Frangouli, Z. ve Anastasopoulos G. (2005). Competition in Tourism among the Mediterranean Countries. Applied Economics, 37:1865-70.
  • Sivri, U. (2010). Şokların Yabancı Ziyaretçi Sayısı ve Yabancı Ziyaretçi Harcamaları Üzerindeki Etkisi Kalıcı Mıdır? TİSK Akademi Dergisi, 5 (10), 220-237. Crouch, G. I. (1994). The Study of International Tourism Demand: A Review of Findings. Journal of Travel Research, 12-23.
  • ŞEN A. ve ŞİT M. (2015). Reel Döviz Kurunun Türkiye’nin Turizm Gelirleri Üzerindeki Etkisinin Amprik Analizi”, Journal of Yaşar University, 10/40, 6752-6762.
  • Tang, C.F. (2011) Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Malaysia? A view from disaggregated tourism markets. International journal of tourism research, 13, pp. 97-101.
  • Toda, H. Y.; Yamamoto, T., (1995). Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregression with Possibly Integrated Processes. Journal of Econometrics, Volume 66: 225-250.
  • Toh, R. S., H. Khan, and F. T. Ng (1997). Prospects for the Tourism Industry in Singapore: A Regression Model. Cornell HRA Quarterly, 38: 80-87.
  • Uğuz S. Ç. ve Topbaş F. (2011). Döviz Kuru Oynaklığı Turizm Talebi İlişkisi, Paper Presented at EconAnadolu 2011:Anadolu International Conference in Economics II June 15-17:1-11.
  • Webber A. (2001). Exchange Rate Votality and Coentegration in Tourism Demand. Journal of Travel Research, 39: 398.
  • Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Kültür ve Turizm Bakanlığı, (2014). Retrieved from http://www.kultur.gov.tr, Date of Access: 18.07.2020

Year 2020, , 245 - 252, 30.09.2020

Rahmi Incekara

https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2020.1300

Abstract

References

  • Aktaş, A. Rıza, Kaplan, F. ve Kocaman, S. (2013).“Turizm ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Akdeniz Ülkeleri Üzerine Bir Panel Veri Analizi”, International Conference on Eurasian Economies, p.755-760.
  • Bahar, O. ve Bozkurt, K. (2010). “Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Turizm-Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi”, Anatolia: Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi, 21,(2), (Güz), s.255-265.
  • Barati E. ve H. Ranjbar (2016). Granger causality and dynamic relationship between the actual values of receipt derived from tourism, national income and exchange tares in selected countries in selected countries with tourist attraction. International business management, 10 (16), 3389-3395.
  • Belloumİ M. (2010), “The Relationship between Tourism Receipt, Real Effective Exchange Rate and Economic Growth in Tunisia”, International Journal of Tourism Research,12(5):550 – 560
  • Değer, M. Kemal (2006). “Turizme ve İhracata Dayalı Büyüme: 1980-2005 Türkiye Deneyimi”, Atatürk Üniversitesi, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 20, s.68-86.
  • Demirel, B., Bozdağ, E. G. ve İnci, A. G. (2020, June 5). Döviz Kurlarındaki Dalgalanmaların Gelen Turist Sayısına Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Retrieved from http://www.deu.edu.tr/userweb/iibf_kongre/dosyalar/demirel.pdf.
  • Dritsakis, N. (2004), Tourism as a Long-run Economic Growth Factor: an Empirical Investigation for Greece using Causality Analysis. Tourism Economics, 10, 305-316.
  • Erkan B., Kara, O. ve Harbalıoğlu, M. (2013). Türkiye’de Turizm Gelirlerinin Belirleyicileri. Akademik bakış dergisi, S. 39, 1-20.
  • Eugenio-Martin ve Morales (2004).Tourism and Economic Growth in Latin American Countries: A Panel Data Approach, Nota Di Lavoro 26.
  • Ghartey E. E. (2010), “Tourism, “Economic Growth and Monetary Policy in Jamaica”,11th Annual SALISES 2010 Conference in Port of Spain, Trinidad-Tobago, 24-26 March, 1-25.
  • Jayathilake Bandula P. M. (2013), “Determinants of Demand for International Tourism in Sri Lanka: An Econometric Evaluation”, International Journal of Business, Economics and Law, vol. 2, issue. 2, 22-27.
  • Kılıç, C. ve Bayar, Y. (2014). Effects of Real exchange rate volatility on tourism receipts and expenditures in Turkey. Advances in management & applied economics, Vol. 4, No. 1. 89-101.
  • Koyuncu F. T. (2015), “Turizm Gelirinin Türkiye’nin Makro Ekonomik Performansına Katkısı: Ekonometrik Bir Çözümleme”, Uluslararası Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, cilt. 8, sayı. 38, 959-968.
  • Mahmoudinia, D., Soderjani, E. S. & Pourshahabi, F. (2011). Economic growth, tourism receipts and exchange rate in MENA zone: Using panel causality technique. Iranian economic review, vol. 15, no.29, 129-146.
  • Mervar, A. ve Payne, J. (2007). Analysis of Foreign Tourism Demand for Croatian Destinations: Long-Run Elasticity Estimates, Tourism Economics, 13: 407-20.
  • Narayan, P.K. (2004). Economic Impact of Tourism on Fiji's Economy: Empirical Evidence from the Computable General Equilibrium Model. Tourism Economics, 10:419-33.
  • Nasir A. M., J. WU ve J. C. Guerrero (2015), “Economic Growth, Exchange Rate and Constrained Competiveness of the Tourism Sector in Andalucia”, International Journal of Management and Economics, No. 48, 84-100.
  • Patsouratis, V. Frangouli, Z. ve Anastasopoulos G. (2005). Competition in Tourism among the Mediterranean Countries. Applied Economics, 37:1865-70.
  • Sivri, U. (2010). Şokların Yabancı Ziyaretçi Sayısı ve Yabancı Ziyaretçi Harcamaları Üzerindeki Etkisi Kalıcı Mıdır? TİSK Akademi Dergisi, 5 (10), 220-237. Crouch, G. I. (1994). The Study of International Tourism Demand: A Review of Findings. Journal of Travel Research, 12-23.
  • ŞEN A. ve ŞİT M. (2015). Reel Döviz Kurunun Türkiye’nin Turizm Gelirleri Üzerindeki Etkisinin Amprik Analizi”, Journal of Yaşar University, 10/40, 6752-6762.
  • Tang, C.F. (2011) Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Malaysia? A view from disaggregated tourism markets. International journal of tourism research, 13, pp. 97-101.
  • Toda, H. Y.; Yamamoto, T., (1995). Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregression with Possibly Integrated Processes. Journal of Econometrics, Volume 66: 225-250.
  • Toh, R. S., H. Khan, and F. T. Ng (1997). Prospects for the Tourism Industry in Singapore: A Regression Model. Cornell HRA Quarterly, 38: 80-87.
  • Uğuz S. Ç. ve Topbaş F. (2011). Döviz Kuru Oynaklığı Turizm Talebi İlişkisi, Paper Presented at EconAnadolu 2011:Anadolu International Conference in Economics II June 15-17:1-11.
  • Webber A. (2001). Exchange Rate Votality and Coentegration in Tourism Demand. Journal of Travel Research, 39: 398.
  • Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Kültür ve Turizm Bakanlığı, (2014). Retrieved from http://www.kultur.gov.tr, Date of Access: 18.07.2020
There are 26 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Finance, Business Administration
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Rahmi Incekara This is me 0000-0001-8052-9315

Publication Date September 30, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2020

Cite

APA Incekara, R. (2020). CASUAL RELATION BETWEEN NUMBER OF TOURISTS AND EXCHANGE RATES: AN IMPLEMENTATION FOR TURKEY. Journal of Business Economics and Finance, 9(3), 245-252. https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2020.1300

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