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Fiscal Adjustments and Stimuli: Turkish Case

Yıl 2014, Cilt: 3 Sayı: 1, 71 - 91, 01.03.2014

Öz

We examine the fiscal adjustment and stimulus episodes in Turkey by using data from 1986 to 2012. After identifying 5 fiscal adjustment and 3 fiscal stimulus episodes, we find that the fiscal adjustments relied on revenue increases are neither successful nor expansionary, while the two fiscal adjustments based on spending cuts are both successful and expansionary. Our results seem to suggest that expectation channel is important in explaining expansionary fiscal adjustments while the changes in trade balance are not. We think that Turkish case clearly shows that fiscal adjustments can be expansionary. However the contributions of several other important factors behind the episodes should also be noted. Successful and expansionary fiscal adjustments when combined with favourable political and economic conditions may not be associated with political costs. One of the fiscal stimulus episodes is expansionary while the remaining two are not.

Kaynakça

  •  Abdih, Y, Lopez-Murphy, P., Roitman A. and Sahay, R. (2010), The Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy in the Middle East and Central Asia: Is the Current Crisis Different ?, IMF Working Paper WP/10/68.
  •  Afonso, A., Nickel, C. and Rother, C.P. (2006), Fiscal Consolidations in the Central and Eastern European Countries, Review of World Economics, 142, pp.402-21.
  •  Alesina A. and Ardagna, S. (1998), Tales of Fiscal Adjustment, Economic Policy, Vol 13(27), pp. 487-545.
  •  Alesina A. and Ardagna, S. (2009), Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes versus Spending, NBER Working Paper no. 15438.
  •  Alesina A. and Ardagna, S. (2012), The Design of Fiscal Adjustments, NBER Working Paper no. 18243.
  •  Alesina A., and Perotti, R (1995), Fiscal Expansions and Adjustments in OECD Countries, NBER Working Paper no. 5214. Alesina, A and Perotti, R. (1996), Fiscal adjustments in OECD countries: Composition and macroeconomic effects, NBER Working Paper no. 5730.
  •  Alesina A., Perotti, R. and Tavares, J. (1998), The Political Economy of Fiscal Adjustments, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring 1998. Alesina A., Favero, C. and Giavazzi, F. (2012), The Output Effects of Fiscal Consolidations, NBER Working Paper no. 18336.
  •  Baldacci, E., Clements, B., Gupta, S., and Mulas-Granados, C. (2004), FrontLoaded or Back-Loaded Adjustments: What Works in Emerging Market Economies?, IMF Working Paper no. WP/04/157.
  •  Barrro, R. (1974), Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 82, No. 6, pp. 1095-1117.
  •  Bertola, G. and Drazen, A. (1993), Trigger Points and Budget Cuts: Explaining the Effects of Fiscal Austerity, American Economic Review, Vol. 83, No. 1, pp. 11-26.  Blanchard, O. J. (1990), Comment on Giavazzi and Pagano, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Vol. 5 p. 111-116.
  •  Blanchard, Oliver J. and Perotti, R. (2002), Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, November, pp.1329-1368.
  •  Broadbent, B. and Daly, K. (2010) Limiting the Fall-out From Fiscal Adjustment, Goldman Sachs, Global Economics Paper 195, April 2010.
  •  Celasun, O. (1999). “The 1994 Currency Crisis in Turkey.” http://wwwwds.worldbank.org/ external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/1998/04/01/000009265_3980624 143318/additional/132532322_20041117180126.pdf (2013)
  •  Dincer, N. and Ozdemir, Z.A. (2009), The Quality of Fiscal Adjustment: An Empirical Analysis of Turkey, Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Vol. 12 No. 2, pp. 111-126.
  •  Erdoğan, L. (2007), “Genişletici Mali Daralma Hipotezi: Türkiye Uygulaması”, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Vol. 7, No. 2, pp.117-132.
  • Fedelino, A., Ivanova, A. and Horton,M. (2009), Computing Cyclically Adjusted
  • Balances and Automatic Stabilizers, Technical Notes and Manuals, Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF. Giavazzi, F. and Pagano, M. (1990), Can Severe Fiscal Contractions be
  • Expantionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries, NBER Working Paper no. 33  Giavazzi, F. and Pagano, M. (1995), Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes: International Evidence and the Swedish Experince, NBER Working Paper no. 5332.
  •  Gupta, S., Baldacci, E., Clements, B., and Mulas-Granados, C. (2002), Expenditure Composition, Fiscal Adjustment, and Growth in Low-Income Countries, IMF Working Paper no. 02/77.
  •  Guajardo, J., Leigh, D. and Pescatori, A. (2011), Expansionary Austerity: New International Evidence, IMF Working Paper no. 11/158.
  •  Hogan, V. (2004), Expansionary fiscal contractions? Evidence from panel data, The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Vol. 106, No. 4, pp. 647-659.
  •  Ilgün, M.F (2010), Genişletici Mali Daralma Hipotezinin Temelleri ve Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine Bir Uygulama.”/ “The Basis of Expansionary Fiscal Contraction Hypothesis and an Application on Turkish Economy, (In Turkish) Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 234 Sayı: 35,pp.233-253.
  •  IMF (2010), Will it Hurt? Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation, World Economic Outlook, Chapter 3, October.
  •  Mountford, A. and Uhlig, H. (2008), What are the Effects of Fiscal policy Schocks? NBER Working Paper no. 14551.
  •  Özatay, F. (2008) “Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations: New Evidence from Turkey”. Working Paper no 406, Economic Research Forum,  Özatay, F. and Sak, G. (2002), Banking Sector Fragility and Turkey’s 2000-01 Financial Crisis, Researh Department Discussion Paper, The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  •  Perotti, R. (2002), Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries, European Central Bank Working Paper Series no. 168.
  •  Perotti, R. (2011), The Austerity Myth: Gain Without Pain, NBER Working Paper no. 17571.
  • Purfield, C. (2003), Fiscal Adjustment in Transition Countries: Evidence From the 1990s, IMF Working Paper No. 03/36.
  •  Rocha, F and Picchetti, P. (2003), Fiscal adjustment in Brazil, Revista Brasileira de Economia, Vol. 57, No. 1, pp.239-252.
  •  Romer, C. and Romer, D. (2007), “The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Change: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks, NBER Working Paper no. 132 Sutherland, A. (1997), Fiscal Crises and Aggregate Demand: Can High Public Dept Reverse the Effects of Fiscal Policy, Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 65, pp. 147
  •  Uygur, E. (2010), The Global Crisis and the Turkish Economy, TWN Global Economy Series, no. 21.
Yıl 2014, Cilt: 3 Sayı: 1, 71 - 91, 01.03.2014

Öz

Kaynakça

  •  Abdih, Y, Lopez-Murphy, P., Roitman A. and Sahay, R. (2010), The Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy in the Middle East and Central Asia: Is the Current Crisis Different ?, IMF Working Paper WP/10/68.
  •  Afonso, A., Nickel, C. and Rother, C.P. (2006), Fiscal Consolidations in the Central and Eastern European Countries, Review of World Economics, 142, pp.402-21.
  •  Alesina A. and Ardagna, S. (1998), Tales of Fiscal Adjustment, Economic Policy, Vol 13(27), pp. 487-545.
  •  Alesina A. and Ardagna, S. (2009), Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes versus Spending, NBER Working Paper no. 15438.
  •  Alesina A. and Ardagna, S. (2012), The Design of Fiscal Adjustments, NBER Working Paper no. 18243.
  •  Alesina A., and Perotti, R (1995), Fiscal Expansions and Adjustments in OECD Countries, NBER Working Paper no. 5214. Alesina, A and Perotti, R. (1996), Fiscal adjustments in OECD countries: Composition and macroeconomic effects, NBER Working Paper no. 5730.
  •  Alesina A., Perotti, R. and Tavares, J. (1998), The Political Economy of Fiscal Adjustments, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring 1998. Alesina A., Favero, C. and Giavazzi, F. (2012), The Output Effects of Fiscal Consolidations, NBER Working Paper no. 18336.
  •  Baldacci, E., Clements, B., Gupta, S., and Mulas-Granados, C. (2004), FrontLoaded or Back-Loaded Adjustments: What Works in Emerging Market Economies?, IMF Working Paper no. WP/04/157.
  •  Barrro, R. (1974), Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 82, No. 6, pp. 1095-1117.
  •  Bertola, G. and Drazen, A. (1993), Trigger Points and Budget Cuts: Explaining the Effects of Fiscal Austerity, American Economic Review, Vol. 83, No. 1, pp. 11-26.  Blanchard, O. J. (1990), Comment on Giavazzi and Pagano, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Vol. 5 p. 111-116.
  •  Blanchard, Oliver J. and Perotti, R. (2002), Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, November, pp.1329-1368.
  •  Broadbent, B. and Daly, K. (2010) Limiting the Fall-out From Fiscal Adjustment, Goldman Sachs, Global Economics Paper 195, April 2010.
  •  Celasun, O. (1999). “The 1994 Currency Crisis in Turkey.” http://wwwwds.worldbank.org/ external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/1998/04/01/000009265_3980624 143318/additional/132532322_20041117180126.pdf (2013)
  •  Dincer, N. and Ozdemir, Z.A. (2009), The Quality of Fiscal Adjustment: An Empirical Analysis of Turkey, Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Vol. 12 No. 2, pp. 111-126.
  •  Erdoğan, L. (2007), “Genişletici Mali Daralma Hipotezi: Türkiye Uygulaması”, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Vol. 7, No. 2, pp.117-132.
  • Fedelino, A., Ivanova, A. and Horton,M. (2009), Computing Cyclically Adjusted
  • Balances and Automatic Stabilizers, Technical Notes and Manuals, Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF. Giavazzi, F. and Pagano, M. (1990), Can Severe Fiscal Contractions be
  • Expantionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries, NBER Working Paper no. 33  Giavazzi, F. and Pagano, M. (1995), Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes: International Evidence and the Swedish Experince, NBER Working Paper no. 5332.
  •  Gupta, S., Baldacci, E., Clements, B., and Mulas-Granados, C. (2002), Expenditure Composition, Fiscal Adjustment, and Growth in Low-Income Countries, IMF Working Paper no. 02/77.
  •  Guajardo, J., Leigh, D. and Pescatori, A. (2011), Expansionary Austerity: New International Evidence, IMF Working Paper no. 11/158.
  •  Hogan, V. (2004), Expansionary fiscal contractions? Evidence from panel data, The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Vol. 106, No. 4, pp. 647-659.
  •  Ilgün, M.F (2010), Genişletici Mali Daralma Hipotezinin Temelleri ve Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine Bir Uygulama.”/ “The Basis of Expansionary Fiscal Contraction Hypothesis and an Application on Turkish Economy, (In Turkish) Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 234 Sayı: 35,pp.233-253.
  •  IMF (2010), Will it Hurt? Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation, World Economic Outlook, Chapter 3, October.
  •  Mountford, A. and Uhlig, H. (2008), What are the Effects of Fiscal policy Schocks? NBER Working Paper no. 14551.
  •  Özatay, F. (2008) “Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations: New Evidence from Turkey”. Working Paper no 406, Economic Research Forum,  Özatay, F. and Sak, G. (2002), Banking Sector Fragility and Turkey’s 2000-01 Financial Crisis, Researh Department Discussion Paper, The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  •  Perotti, R. (2002), Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries, European Central Bank Working Paper Series no. 168.
  •  Perotti, R. (2011), The Austerity Myth: Gain Without Pain, NBER Working Paper no. 17571.
  • Purfield, C. (2003), Fiscal Adjustment in Transition Countries: Evidence From the 1990s, IMF Working Paper No. 03/36.
  •  Rocha, F and Picchetti, P. (2003), Fiscal adjustment in Brazil, Revista Brasileira de Economia, Vol. 57, No. 1, pp.239-252.
  •  Romer, C. and Romer, D. (2007), “The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Change: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks, NBER Working Paper no. 132 Sutherland, A. (1997), Fiscal Crises and Aggregate Demand: Can High Public Dept Reverse the Effects of Fiscal Policy, Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 65, pp. 147
  •  Uygur, E. (2010), The Global Crisis and the Turkish Economy, TWN Global Economy Series, no. 21.
Toplam 31 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Bölüm Articles
Yazarlar

Taner Turan Bu kişi benim

Niyazi Cangir Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Mart 2014
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2014 Cilt: 3 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Turan, T., & Cangir, N. (2014). Fiscal Adjustments and Stimuli: Turkish Case. Journal of Business Economics and Finance, 3(1), 71-91.

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