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The Twin Deficits Phenomenon In Turkey: An Empirical Investigation

Yıl 2013, Cilt: 2 Sayı: 3, 36 - 42, 01.09.2013

Pelin Varol Iyidogan

Öz

The aim of this study is to explore the relationship between budget deficit and the current account deficit for Turkey over the period 19872005. Considering the structural breaks in the series, the stationarity analysis is employed by means of Zivot- Andrews unit root test. In the succeeding step of the methodology, by utilizing Toda Yamamato test, the causality relationship between the budget deficit and the current account deficit is examined. The empirical results indicate that current account deficit is a causing variable for the budget deficit in Turkish economy.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Budget deficit current account deficit structural break causality.

Kaynakça

  • Afonso, A. and Rault, C. (2009), Bootstrap Panel Granger-Causality Between Government Budget and External Deficits for the EU, CESifo Working Paper, 2581.
  • Arize, A.C. and Malindretos, J. (2008), Dynamic Linkages and Granger Causality Between Trade and Budget Deficits: Evidence from Africa, African Journal of Accounting, Economics, Finance and Banking Research, 2(2), pp. 1-19.
  • Bagnai, A. (2010), Twin Deficits in CEEC Economies: Evidence From Panel Unit Root Tests, Economics Bulletin, 30(2), pp. 1-9.
  • Baharumshah, A.Z. and Lau, E. (2005), Budget and Current Account Deficits in SEACEN Countries: Evidence Based on the Panel Approach, Intenational Finance, EconWPA 0504002, pp. 1Barışık, S. and Kesikoğlu, F. (2010), Makro Ekonomik Değişken Olarak Bütçe Açığı-Cari Açık İlişkisi: Gelişmekte Olan Piyasalar Örneği, İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 25(294), pp. 109-127.
  • Beetsma, R., Giuliodori, M. and Klaassen, F. (2008), The Effects of Public Spending Shocks on Trade Balances and Budget Deficits in the European Union, Journal of the European Economic Association,6(2-3), pp. 414-423.
  • Bluedorn, J., and Leigh, D. (2011), Revisiting the Twin Deficits Hypothesis: The Effect of Fiscal Consolidation on the Current Account, IMF Economic Review 59(4), pp. 582-602.
  • Daly, V. and Siddiki, J. U. (2009), The Twin Deficits in OECD Countries: Cointegration Analysis with Regime Shifts, Applied Economic Letters, 16(11), pp. 1155-1164.
  • Datta, K. and Mukhopadhyay, C.K. (2010), Twin Deficits Phenomenon in Maldives: Spectral and Time Domain Analysis of Time Series, The IUP Journal of Applied Economics, 9(2), pp. 98-125.
  • Erdinç, Z. (2008), İkiz Açıklar Hipotezinin Türkiye’de 1950-2005 Yılları Arasında Eşbütünleşme Analizi ve Granger Nedensellik Testi ile İncelenmesi, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 8(1), pp. 209-222.
  • Ganchev, G.T., Stavrova, E. and Tsenkov, V. (2012), Testing the Twin Deficit Hypothesis: The Case of Central and Eastern European Countries, International Journal of Contemporary Economics and Administrative Sciences, 2(1), pp. 1-21.
  • Katırcıoğlu, S.T., Feth, S. and Feth, M.D. (2009), Twin Deficits Phenomenon in Small İslands: An Empirical Investigation By Panel Data Analysis, Applied Economics Letters, 16(5), pp. 156915
  • Ketenci, N. and Uz, İ. (2010), Determinants of Current Account in the EU: The Relation Between Internal and External Balances in the New Members, MPRA Paper, 27466.
  • Magazzino, C. (2012), The Twin Deficits Phenomenon: Evidence From Italy, Journal of Economic Cooperation and Development, 33(3), pp. 65-80.
  • Marinheiro, C.F. (2008), Ricardian Equivalence, Twin Deficits, and the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle in Egypt, Journal of Policy Modeling, 30, pp. 1041-1056.
  • Mukhtar, T., Zakaria, M. and Ahmed, M. (2007), An Empirical Investigation for the Twin Deficit Hypothesis in Pakistan, Journal of Economic Cooperation, 28(4), pp. 63-80.
  • Pahlavani, M. and Saleh, A. S. (2009), Budget Deficits and Current Account Deficits in Philippines: A Causal Relationship?, American Journal of Applied Sciences, 6(8), pp. 1515-1521.
  • Sever, E. and Demir, M. (2007), Türkiye’de Bütçe Açığı ile Cari Açık Arasındaki İlişkilerin VAR Analizi ile İncelenmesi, Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 2(1), pp. 47-63.
  • Stournaras, C. F. (2013), Twin Deficits in Greece: Theory and Evidence from the Last Drachma Journey, Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2205047 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2205047 .
  • Summers, H. L. (1988), Tax Policy and International Competitiveness. in Ed. J. Frankel, International Aspects of Fiscal Policies, Chicago: Chicago: UP, pp. 349-375.
  • Toda H. Y. and Yamamato T. (1995), Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes, Journal of Econometrics, 66(1-2), pp. 225-250.
  • Ümit, A. Ö. and Yıldırım, K. (2010), Ikiz Açıklar Hipotezi: Türkiye Analizi, İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 23(267), 116-132.
  • Varol İyidoğan, P. (2011), İkiz Açıklar Hipotezi: Türkiye Deneyimi, Hacettepe University Graduate School of Social Sciences Department of Economics, Unpublished Ph.D. Thesis.
  • Varol İyidoğan, P. and Erkam, S. (2013), İkiz Açıklar Hipotezi: Türkiye için Ampirik Bir İnceleme (1987-2005), Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 15, pp. 39-48.
  • Yay, G.G. and Taştan, H. (2007), Ikiz Açıklar Olgusu: Frekans Alanında Nedensellik Yaklaşımı, İÜ Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, 37, pp. 87-111.
  • Zivot, E. and Andrews, D. W. K. (1992), Further Evidence of the Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock and the Unit Root Hypothesis, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10(3), pp. 251-270.

Yıl 2013, Cilt: 2 Sayı: 3, 36 - 42, 01.09.2013

Pelin Varol Iyidogan

Öz

Kaynakça

  • Afonso, A. and Rault, C. (2009), Bootstrap Panel Granger-Causality Between Government Budget and External Deficits for the EU, CESifo Working Paper, 2581.
  • Arize, A.C. and Malindretos, J. (2008), Dynamic Linkages and Granger Causality Between Trade and Budget Deficits: Evidence from Africa, African Journal of Accounting, Economics, Finance and Banking Research, 2(2), pp. 1-19.
  • Bagnai, A. (2010), Twin Deficits in CEEC Economies: Evidence From Panel Unit Root Tests, Economics Bulletin, 30(2), pp. 1-9.
  • Baharumshah, A.Z. and Lau, E. (2005), Budget and Current Account Deficits in SEACEN Countries: Evidence Based on the Panel Approach, Intenational Finance, EconWPA 0504002, pp. 1Barışık, S. and Kesikoğlu, F. (2010), Makro Ekonomik Değişken Olarak Bütçe Açığı-Cari Açık İlişkisi: Gelişmekte Olan Piyasalar Örneği, İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 25(294), pp. 109-127.
  • Beetsma, R., Giuliodori, M. and Klaassen, F. (2008), The Effects of Public Spending Shocks on Trade Balances and Budget Deficits in the European Union, Journal of the European Economic Association,6(2-3), pp. 414-423.
  • Bluedorn, J., and Leigh, D. (2011), Revisiting the Twin Deficits Hypothesis: The Effect of Fiscal Consolidation on the Current Account, IMF Economic Review 59(4), pp. 582-602.
  • Daly, V. and Siddiki, J. U. (2009), The Twin Deficits in OECD Countries: Cointegration Analysis with Regime Shifts, Applied Economic Letters, 16(11), pp. 1155-1164.
  • Datta, K. and Mukhopadhyay, C.K. (2010), Twin Deficits Phenomenon in Maldives: Spectral and Time Domain Analysis of Time Series, The IUP Journal of Applied Economics, 9(2), pp. 98-125.
  • Erdinç, Z. (2008), İkiz Açıklar Hipotezinin Türkiye’de 1950-2005 Yılları Arasında Eşbütünleşme Analizi ve Granger Nedensellik Testi ile İncelenmesi, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 8(1), pp. 209-222.
  • Ganchev, G.T., Stavrova, E. and Tsenkov, V. (2012), Testing the Twin Deficit Hypothesis: The Case of Central and Eastern European Countries, International Journal of Contemporary Economics and Administrative Sciences, 2(1), pp. 1-21.
  • Katırcıoğlu, S.T., Feth, S. and Feth, M.D. (2009), Twin Deficits Phenomenon in Small İslands: An Empirical Investigation By Panel Data Analysis, Applied Economics Letters, 16(5), pp. 156915
  • Ketenci, N. and Uz, İ. (2010), Determinants of Current Account in the EU: The Relation Between Internal and External Balances in the New Members, MPRA Paper, 27466.
  • Magazzino, C. (2012), The Twin Deficits Phenomenon: Evidence From Italy, Journal of Economic Cooperation and Development, 33(3), pp. 65-80.
  • Marinheiro, C.F. (2008), Ricardian Equivalence, Twin Deficits, and the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle in Egypt, Journal of Policy Modeling, 30, pp. 1041-1056.
  • Mukhtar, T., Zakaria, M. and Ahmed, M. (2007), An Empirical Investigation for the Twin Deficit Hypothesis in Pakistan, Journal of Economic Cooperation, 28(4), pp. 63-80.
  • Pahlavani, M. and Saleh, A. S. (2009), Budget Deficits and Current Account Deficits in Philippines: A Causal Relationship?, American Journal of Applied Sciences, 6(8), pp. 1515-1521.
  • Sever, E. and Demir, M. (2007), Türkiye’de Bütçe Açığı ile Cari Açık Arasındaki İlişkilerin VAR Analizi ile İncelenmesi, Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 2(1), pp. 47-63.
  • Stournaras, C. F. (2013), Twin Deficits in Greece: Theory and Evidence from the Last Drachma Journey, Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2205047 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2205047 .
  • Summers, H. L. (1988), Tax Policy and International Competitiveness. in Ed. J. Frankel, International Aspects of Fiscal Policies, Chicago: Chicago: UP, pp. 349-375.
  • Toda H. Y. and Yamamato T. (1995), Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes, Journal of Econometrics, 66(1-2), pp. 225-250.
  • Ümit, A. Ö. and Yıldırım, K. (2010), Ikiz Açıklar Hipotezi: Türkiye Analizi, İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 23(267), 116-132.
  • Varol İyidoğan, P. (2011), İkiz Açıklar Hipotezi: Türkiye Deneyimi, Hacettepe University Graduate School of Social Sciences Department of Economics, Unpublished Ph.D. Thesis.
  • Varol İyidoğan, P. and Erkam, S. (2013), İkiz Açıklar Hipotezi: Türkiye için Ampirik Bir İnceleme (1987-2005), Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 15, pp. 39-48.
  • Yay, G.G. and Taştan, H. (2007), Ikiz Açıklar Olgusu: Frekans Alanında Nedensellik Yaklaşımı, İÜ Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, 37, pp. 87-111.
  • Zivot, E. and Andrews, D. W. K. (1992), Further Evidence of the Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock and the Unit Root Hypothesis, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10(3), pp. 251-270.
Toplam 25 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Bölüm Articles
Yazarlar

Pelin Varol Iyidogan Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Eylül 2013
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2013 Cilt: 2 Sayı: 3

Kaynak Göster

APA Iyidogan, P. V. (2013). The Twin Deficits Phenomenon In Turkey: An Empirical Investigation. Journal of Business Economics and Finance, 2(3), 36-42.

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