Araştırma Makalesi
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The Impact of Foreign Trade on Immıgratıon from Turkey to Germany: ARDL Bounds Test Approach

Yıl 2020, Sayı: 62, 123 - 143, 25.12.2020
https://doi.org/10.26650/JECS2020-0027

Öz

Due to developments in the field of transportation and communication, communication and technological facilities have sped up the migration movements between countries by reducing the cost of migration. Additionally, as a result of developments in facilities and technology provided by globalization, the trade volume of the world is increasing rapidly. This study tested the impact of foreign trade on migrants from Turkey to Germany from the years 1988-2018 with the ARDL bounds testing approach for the first time. Hereby, it is aimed to make an original contribution by the use of this method. This study sought to answer the question of what the impact of Turkey’s import and export has been on outgoing immigrants from Turkey to Germany from 1988-2018. The hypotheses of this study are that Turkey’s imports and exports to Germany are increasing the migratory flows between Turkey and Germany and that foreign trade and migration are complementary between Turkey and Germany. According to the results of the study, what has been found is a cointegration relationship between Turkey’s foreign trade with Germany and immigrants from Turkey to Germany. Moreover; If there is a 1% increase to Turkey’s exports to Germany, the immigrant flow increase 0.30% to Germany from Turkey. If there is a 1% increase to Germany’s imports to Turkey, there is a 0.21% increase in the immigrant flows to Germany from Turkey.

Kaynakça

  • Akkoyunlu, Ş. ve Siliverstovs, B. (2009). Migration and trade: complements or substitutes? evidence from Turkish migration to Germany. Emerging Markets Finance & Trade, 45(5), 47– 61.
  • Aydın, Y. (2016). The German-Turkey migration corridor: refitting policies for a transnational age. Migration Policy Institute. Retrieved from https://www.migrationpolicy.org/.
  • Bellino, A., & Giuseppe, C. (2016). The role of migration in the variety and quality of trade: evidence from Germany. German Economic Review, 17(1), 1–5.
  • Brown, R.L., Durbın, J., & Evans, J.M. (1975). Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relations overtime. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 37(13), 149 –163.
  • Boz, F.G. and Durmaz, A. (2016). Göçmenlerin uluslararası ticaret üzerine etkisi: MENA bölgesindeki Türk göçmenler üzerine bir uygulama. Uiiid-İjeas, 17, 259–272.
  • Buzdağlı, Ö. ve Kızıltan, A. (2011). Göç-ticaret ilişkisi: Türkiye’nin tüketim malı ihracatı üzerine bir uygulama. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 25(3), 65–75.
  • Carbaugh, R. J. (2007). Is international trade a substitute for migration?” Global Economy Journal, 7(3), 1–3.
  • Combes, P.P., Lafourcade, M., & Mayer, T. (2002). Can business and social networks explain the border effect puzzle?Journal of International Economics. 66(2005), 1–29. https://doi:10.1016/j.jinteco.2004.07.003.
  • Dickey, D.A., & Fuller, W.A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica. 49, 1057– 072.
  • Dunlevy, J.A., & Hutchinson, W. K. (1999). The ımpact of ımmigration on American ımport trade in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Journal of Economic History, 59(4) 1043 –1062.
  • Dunlevy, J.A., & Hutchinson, W. K. (2001). The pro-trade effect of ımmigration on American exports during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. IZA Discussion Paper: 375. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/.
  • Egger, P. H., Enrlich, M., & Nelson, D.R. (2012). Migration and trade. The World Economy, 35(2), 216 –241.
  • Eichengreen, B., & Irwin, D. (1996). The role of history in bilateral trade flows. NBER Working Papers, 5565.
  • Engle, R.F., & Granger, C.W. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 251-276.
  • Faini, R., & Venturini, A. (1993). Migration and growth: the experience of Southern Europe, in T. Hatton and J. Williamson (eds.). International Migration and World Development, 1850-1939. London: Routledge.
  • Gould, D. M. (1994). Immigrant links to the home country: empirical ımplications for U.S. bilateral trade flows, Review of Economics and Statistics, 76, 302 –316.
  • Girma, S., & Yu, Z. (2002). The link between ımmigration and trade: evidence from the United Kingdom. Review of World Economics, 138(1), 115 –30.
  • Hanson, G.H., & Spilimbergo, A. (1996). Illegal ımmigration, border enforcement, and relative wages: evidence from apprehensions at the U.S.-Mexico border. NBER Working Paper No. 5592. https://doi:10.3386/w5592,
  • Head, K., & Ries, J. (1998). Immigration and trade creation: econometric evidence from Canada. Canadian Journal of Economics, 31, 47– 62.
  • Heckscher, E. F. (1919). The effect of foreign trade on the distribution of ıncome, 21, 497–512, translated in American Economic Association, Readings in the Theory of International Trade, 1949, Philadelphia: Blakiston, 272–300.
  • Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2), 231–254.
  • Johansen, S., & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and ınference on cointegration—with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 52(2), 169 –210.
  • Karagöz, K. (2011). Göç-ticaret ilişkisi: panel çekim modeli. Sosyo-Ekonomi, 56–68.
  • Krugman, P. (1980). Scale economies,product differantation and the pattern of trade. American Economic Review, 70(5), 950–959.
  • Lee, J., & Strazicich, M.C. (2003). Minimum lagrange multiplier unit root test with two structural breaks. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), 1082-1089.
  • Markusen, J. (1 983). Factor movements and commodity trade as complements. Journal of İnternational Economics, 14(3-4), 341–356.
  • Martin, P. L. (1993). Trade and migration: NAFTA and agriculture. Institute for International Economics, Retrived from Schiff, M. (1996, December), South-North migration and trade, The World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper 1696. Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/.
  • Matsuyama, K. (1995). Complementarities and cumulative processes in models of monopolistic competition. Journal of Economic Literature, 33(2), 701–729.
  • Morrison A.R., & Zabin, C.A. (1994). mimeo, Dept. of Economics, Tulane University. Retrieved from
  • Schiff, M. (1996, December), South-North migration and trade, The World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper, 1696, Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/.
  • Mundell, R. A. (1957). International trade and factor mobility. The American Economic Review, 47(3), 321-335.
  • Narayan, P. K. (2005). The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests. Applied Economics,37(17), 1979–1990. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500278103
  • Özekicioğlu, H. ve Soyyiğit S. (2019). Dış ticaret ve göç ilişkisi üzerine bir çekim modeli analizi: Almanya örneği. Journal of Economy Culture and Society.60, 125–143, https://10.26650/JECS2019-0015.
  • Panagariya, A. (1992). Factor mobility, trade and welfare. a North-South analysis with economies of scale. Journal of Development Economics,39, 229–245.
  • Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R.J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326.
  • Phillips, P.C., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335–346.
  • Rauch, J.E., & Tridade, V. (2002). Ethnic Chinese networks in international trade. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 84(1), 116 –130.
  • Russell, S. S., & Teitelbaum, M. S. (1992). International migration and international trade. World Bank Discussion Paper, 160. Washington. USA.
  • Samuelson, P. A. (1949). International factor-price equalization once again. Economic Journal, 59, 181–197.
  • Schiff, M. (1996). South-North migration and trade. The World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper, Retrievedfrom http://documents.worldbank.org/.
  • Taylor, J.E. (1987). Undocumented Mexico—U.S. migration and the returns to households in rural Mexico. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 69(3), 626–638, https://doi.org/10.2307/1241697
  • Thımann, C. (1996). Finance and development Germany’s social assistance program: the dilemma of reform. 33(3). Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/1996/09/pdf/thimann.pdf.
  • Wagner, D., Head, K., & Ries, J. (2002). Immigration and the trade of provinces. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 49(5), 507–525.
  • Williamson, J.G. (1995), The evolution of global labor markets since 1830: background evidence and hypotheses. Explorations in Economic History, 32, 141–156.
  • Wong, K. Y. (1983). On choosing among trade in goods and ınternational capital and labor mobility: a theoretical analysis,Journal of International Economics14, 223–250.
  • Zabin C., & S. Hughes (1993). Economic ıntegration and labor flows: stage migration in farm labor markets in Mexico and the United States. International Migration Review,29(2), https://doi.org/10.1177/019791839502900204.
  • Zarzosoa, P. H., Lehmann, F. N., & Horsewood, N. (2009). Are regional trading agreements beneficial? static and dynamic panel gravity models. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 20, 46 – 65

Dış Ticaretin Türkiye’den Almanya’ya Giden Göçmenler Üzerindeki Etkisi: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı

Yıl 2020, Sayı: 62, 123 - 143, 25.12.2020
https://doi.org/10.26650/JECS2020-0027

Öz

Ulaşım ve haberleşme alanında yaşanan gelişmeler, iletişim alanında ve teknolojik sahada elde edilmiş kolaylıklar, göç etmenin maliyetini azaltarak; ülkeler arasındaki göç hareketlerini hızlandırmaktadır. Diğer taraftan, küreselleşmenin sağlamış olduğu kolaylıklar ve teknolojik gelişmeler neticesinde dünya ticaret hacmi hızla artmaktadır. Bu çalışmada 1988-2018 yılları itibariyle Türkiye’nin Almanya ile gerçekleştirdiği dış ticaretin Türkiye’den Almanya’ya giden göçmenler üzerindeki etkisini ilk kez ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı ile test edilmektedir. Bu nedenle kullanılmış olan yöntem ile özgün bir katkı sağlamış olmak hedeflenmektedir. Bu çalışmanın sorusu: 1988-2018 yıllarında Türkiye’nin Almanya ile olan ithalat ve ihracatının Türkiye’den Almanya’ya giden göçmenler üzerindeki etkisi ne olmuştur? Biçiminde oluşturulmuştur. Bu çalışmanın hipotezleri ise; Hipotez 1: “Türkiye’nin Almanya ile olan ithalat ve ihracatı göç hareketlerini artırmaktadır” ve Hipotez 2: “Türkiye ve Almanya arasındaki dış ticaret ve göç ilişkisi tamamlayıcılık ilişkisi niteliğindedir.” şeklindedir. Çalışmadan elde edilen uygulamalı analiz sonuçlarına göre, Türkiye’nin Almanya ile olan dış ticareti ve Türkiye’den Almanya’ya giden göçmenler arasında eş bütünleşme ilişkisi bulunmaktadır. Bu sonuca ek olarak; Türkiye’nin ithalat ve ihracatında %1’lik artış olduğunda, Türkiye’den Almanya’ya giden göçmenlerin oranı ithalat ve ihracat için sırası ile %0.30 ve %0.21 oranında artmaktadır.

Kaynakça

  • Akkoyunlu, Ş. ve Siliverstovs, B. (2009). Migration and trade: complements or substitutes? evidence from Turkish migration to Germany. Emerging Markets Finance & Trade, 45(5), 47– 61.
  • Aydın, Y. (2016). The German-Turkey migration corridor: refitting policies for a transnational age. Migration Policy Institute. Retrieved from https://www.migrationpolicy.org/.
  • Bellino, A., & Giuseppe, C. (2016). The role of migration in the variety and quality of trade: evidence from Germany. German Economic Review, 17(1), 1–5.
  • Brown, R.L., Durbın, J., & Evans, J.M. (1975). Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relations overtime. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 37(13), 149 –163.
  • Boz, F.G. and Durmaz, A. (2016). Göçmenlerin uluslararası ticaret üzerine etkisi: MENA bölgesindeki Türk göçmenler üzerine bir uygulama. Uiiid-İjeas, 17, 259–272.
  • Buzdağlı, Ö. ve Kızıltan, A. (2011). Göç-ticaret ilişkisi: Türkiye’nin tüketim malı ihracatı üzerine bir uygulama. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 25(3), 65–75.
  • Carbaugh, R. J. (2007). Is international trade a substitute for migration?” Global Economy Journal, 7(3), 1–3.
  • Combes, P.P., Lafourcade, M., & Mayer, T. (2002). Can business and social networks explain the border effect puzzle?Journal of International Economics. 66(2005), 1–29. https://doi:10.1016/j.jinteco.2004.07.003.
  • Dickey, D.A., & Fuller, W.A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica. 49, 1057– 072.
  • Dunlevy, J.A., & Hutchinson, W. K. (1999). The ımpact of ımmigration on American ımport trade in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Journal of Economic History, 59(4) 1043 –1062.
  • Dunlevy, J.A., & Hutchinson, W. K. (2001). The pro-trade effect of ımmigration on American exports during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. IZA Discussion Paper: 375. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/.
  • Egger, P. H., Enrlich, M., & Nelson, D.R. (2012). Migration and trade. The World Economy, 35(2), 216 –241.
  • Eichengreen, B., & Irwin, D. (1996). The role of history in bilateral trade flows. NBER Working Papers, 5565.
  • Engle, R.F., & Granger, C.W. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 251-276.
  • Faini, R., & Venturini, A. (1993). Migration and growth: the experience of Southern Europe, in T. Hatton and J. Williamson (eds.). International Migration and World Development, 1850-1939. London: Routledge.
  • Gould, D. M. (1994). Immigrant links to the home country: empirical ımplications for U.S. bilateral trade flows, Review of Economics and Statistics, 76, 302 –316.
  • Girma, S., & Yu, Z. (2002). The link between ımmigration and trade: evidence from the United Kingdom. Review of World Economics, 138(1), 115 –30.
  • Hanson, G.H., & Spilimbergo, A. (1996). Illegal ımmigration, border enforcement, and relative wages: evidence from apprehensions at the U.S.-Mexico border. NBER Working Paper No. 5592. https://doi:10.3386/w5592,
  • Head, K., & Ries, J. (1998). Immigration and trade creation: econometric evidence from Canada. Canadian Journal of Economics, 31, 47– 62.
  • Heckscher, E. F. (1919). The effect of foreign trade on the distribution of ıncome, 21, 497–512, translated in American Economic Association, Readings in the Theory of International Trade, 1949, Philadelphia: Blakiston, 272–300.
  • Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2), 231–254.
  • Johansen, S., & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and ınference on cointegration—with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 52(2), 169 –210.
  • Karagöz, K. (2011). Göç-ticaret ilişkisi: panel çekim modeli. Sosyo-Ekonomi, 56–68.
  • Krugman, P. (1980). Scale economies,product differantation and the pattern of trade. American Economic Review, 70(5), 950–959.
  • Lee, J., & Strazicich, M.C. (2003). Minimum lagrange multiplier unit root test with two structural breaks. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), 1082-1089.
  • Markusen, J. (1 983). Factor movements and commodity trade as complements. Journal of İnternational Economics, 14(3-4), 341–356.
  • Martin, P. L. (1993). Trade and migration: NAFTA and agriculture. Institute for International Economics, Retrived from Schiff, M. (1996, December), South-North migration and trade, The World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper 1696. Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/.
  • Matsuyama, K. (1995). Complementarities and cumulative processes in models of monopolistic competition. Journal of Economic Literature, 33(2), 701–729.
  • Morrison A.R., & Zabin, C.A. (1994). mimeo, Dept. of Economics, Tulane University. Retrieved from
  • Schiff, M. (1996, December), South-North migration and trade, The World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper, 1696, Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/.
  • Mundell, R. A. (1957). International trade and factor mobility. The American Economic Review, 47(3), 321-335.
  • Narayan, P. K. (2005). The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests. Applied Economics,37(17), 1979–1990. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500278103
  • Özekicioğlu, H. ve Soyyiğit S. (2019). Dış ticaret ve göç ilişkisi üzerine bir çekim modeli analizi: Almanya örneği. Journal of Economy Culture and Society.60, 125–143, https://10.26650/JECS2019-0015.
  • Panagariya, A. (1992). Factor mobility, trade and welfare. a North-South analysis with economies of scale. Journal of Development Economics,39, 229–245.
  • Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R.J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326.
  • Phillips, P.C., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335–346.
  • Rauch, J.E., & Tridade, V. (2002). Ethnic Chinese networks in international trade. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 84(1), 116 –130.
  • Russell, S. S., & Teitelbaum, M. S. (1992). International migration and international trade. World Bank Discussion Paper, 160. Washington. USA.
  • Samuelson, P. A. (1949). International factor-price equalization once again. Economic Journal, 59, 181–197.
  • Schiff, M. (1996). South-North migration and trade. The World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper, Retrievedfrom http://documents.worldbank.org/.
  • Taylor, J.E. (1987). Undocumented Mexico—U.S. migration and the returns to households in rural Mexico. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 69(3), 626–638, https://doi.org/10.2307/1241697
  • Thımann, C. (1996). Finance and development Germany’s social assistance program: the dilemma of reform. 33(3). Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/1996/09/pdf/thimann.pdf.
  • Wagner, D., Head, K., & Ries, J. (2002). Immigration and the trade of provinces. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 49(5), 507–525.
  • Williamson, J.G. (1995), The evolution of global labor markets since 1830: background evidence and hypotheses. Explorations in Economic History, 32, 141–156.
  • Wong, K. Y. (1983). On choosing among trade in goods and ınternational capital and labor mobility: a theoretical analysis,Journal of International Economics14, 223–250.
  • Zabin C., & S. Hughes (1993). Economic ıntegration and labor flows: stage migration in farm labor markets in Mexico and the United States. International Migration Review,29(2), https://doi.org/10.1177/019791839502900204.
  • Zarzosoa, P. H., Lehmann, F. N., & Horsewood, N. (2009). Are regional trading agreements beneficial? static and dynamic panel gravity models. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 20, 46 – 65
Toplam 47 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Araştırma Makaleleri
Yazarlar

Hande Aksöz Yılmaz 0000-0002-1115-7535

Yayımlanma Tarihi 25 Aralık 2020
Gönderilme Tarihi 6 Mart 2020
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2020 Sayı: 62

Kaynak Göster

APA Aksöz Yılmaz, H. (2020). Dış Ticaretin Türkiye’den Almanya’ya Giden Göçmenler Üzerindeki Etkisi: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı. Journal of Economy Culture and Society(62), 123-143. https://doi.org/10.26650/JECS2020-0027
AMA Aksöz Yılmaz H. Dış Ticaretin Türkiye’den Almanya’ya Giden Göçmenler Üzerindeki Etkisi: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı. Journal of Economy Culture and Society. Aralık 2020;(62):123-143. doi:10.26650/JECS2020-0027
Chicago Aksöz Yılmaz, Hande. “Dış Ticaretin Türkiye’den Almanya’ya Giden Göçmenler Üzerindeki Etkisi: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı”. Journal of Economy Culture and Society, sy. 62 (Aralık 2020): 123-43. https://doi.org/10.26650/JECS2020-0027.
EndNote Aksöz Yılmaz H (01 Aralık 2020) Dış Ticaretin Türkiye’den Almanya’ya Giden Göçmenler Üzerindeki Etkisi: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı. Journal of Economy Culture and Society 62 123–143.
IEEE H. Aksöz Yılmaz, “Dış Ticaretin Türkiye’den Almanya’ya Giden Göçmenler Üzerindeki Etkisi: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı”, Journal of Economy Culture and Society, sy. 62, ss. 123–143, Aralık 2020, doi: 10.26650/JECS2020-0027.
ISNAD Aksöz Yılmaz, Hande. “Dış Ticaretin Türkiye’den Almanya’ya Giden Göçmenler Üzerindeki Etkisi: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı”. Journal of Economy Culture and Society 62 (Aralık 2020), 123-143. https://doi.org/10.26650/JECS2020-0027.
JAMA Aksöz Yılmaz H. Dış Ticaretin Türkiye’den Almanya’ya Giden Göçmenler Üzerindeki Etkisi: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı. Journal of Economy Culture and Society. 2020;:123–143.
MLA Aksöz Yılmaz, Hande. “Dış Ticaretin Türkiye’den Almanya’ya Giden Göçmenler Üzerindeki Etkisi: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı”. Journal of Economy Culture and Society, sy. 62, 2020, ss. 123-4, doi:10.26650/JECS2020-0027.
Vancouver Aksöz Yılmaz H. Dış Ticaretin Türkiye’den Almanya’ya Giden Göçmenler Üzerindeki Etkisi: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı. Journal of Economy Culture and Society. 2020(62):123-4.