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Year 2016, , 180 - 191, 30.09.2016

Aylin Idikut Ozpence

https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2016321986

Abstract

References

  • Ahmed, S. ve Mortaza, Md.G. 2005, “Inflation and Economic Growth in Bangladesh: 1981 -2005”, Policy Analysis Unit Working Paper Series, WP0604, pp. 1-22.
  • Akgül, I. ve Özdemir, S. 2012, “Enflasyon Eşiği ve Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi”, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans, Vol. 27, No. 313, ss. 85-106.
  • Akyazı, H. ve Ekinci, A. 2009, “Enflasyon Hedeflemesi, Büyüme ve Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası”, Bankacılar Dergisi, Sayı: 68, ss. 3-19.
  • Artan, S. 2008, “Türkiye’de Enflasyon, Enflasyon Belirsizliği ve Büyüme”, International Journal of Economic and Administrative Studies, Vol. 1, No. 1, ss. 113-138.
  • Barro, R.J. ve Sala-i-Martin, X. 1992, “Public Finance in Models of Economic Growth”, The Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 59, Issue 4, Oct., pp. 645-661.
  • Barro, R.J. 1995, “Inflation and Economic Growth”, NBER Working Paper 5326.
  • Baumol, W. J. 1958, “Price Behavior, Stability, and Growth”, The Relationship of Prices to Economic Stability and Growth, Joint Committee Print.
  • Berber, M. ve Artan, S. 2004, “Enflasyon ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, Turkish Economic Association Discussion Paper 2004/21.
  • Borrero, A. M. 2001, “On the Long and Short of Central Bank Indepence, Policy Coordination, and Economic Performance”, IMF Working Paper, WP/01/19, pp. 1-25.
  • Bozkurt, C. 2014, “Money, Inflation and Growth Relationship: The Turkish Case”, International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Vol. 4, No. 2, pp. 309-322.
  • Bruno, M. ve Easterly, W. 1998, “Inflation Crises and Long-Run Growth”, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 41, pp. 3-26.
  • Dıckey, D.A. ve Fuller, W.A. 1979, “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Journal of The American Statiscal Association, No. 74, pp. 427-431.
  • Domar, E. D. 1946, “Capital Expansion, Rate of Growth, and Employment”, Econometrica, Vol. 14, No. 2, pp. 137-147.
  • Harrod, R.F. 1939, “An Essay in Dynamic Theory”, The Economic Journal, Vol. 49, No. 193, pp. 14-33.
  • Engle, R. F., and Granger, C. W. J. 1987, "Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation,Estimation and Testing," Econometrica, 55, 251-276.
  • Esmen, Ö.S., Turan, S.A. ve Aksu, H. 2012, “Sınır Testi ile Enflasyon ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkileri: Türkiye Üzerine İncelemeler”, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Cilt: 12, Sayı: 2, ss. 25-40.
  • Faria, J. R. ve Carneiro, F. G. 2001, “Does High Inflation Affect Growth in the Long and Short Run”, Journal of Applied Economics, Vol. 4, No. 1, pp. 89-105.
  • Fischer, S. 1993, “The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth”, NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper No. 4565, pp.1 36.
  • Granger, C. W.J. 1969, “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods”, Econometrica, No. 37, No. 3, pp. 553-56-.
  • Ghosh, A. ve Phillips, S. 1998, “Warning: Inflation May Be Harmful to Your Growth”, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 45, No. 4, pp. 672-710.
  • Gillman, M., Harris, M. ve Matyas, L. 2002, “Inflation and Growth: Some Theory and Evidence”, Berlin: 10th International Conference on Panel Data, http://econpapers.repec.org/cpd/2002/42_Harris_2.pdf.
  • Gillman, M. ve Harris M., 2010, “The Effect of Inflation on Growth, Economics of Transition”, Vol. 18, No. 4, pp. 697-714.
  • Gokal, V. ve Hanif S. 2004, “Relationship Between Inflation and Economic Growth”, Economics Depertmant Reserve Bank of Fiji Working Paper, 2004/4, pp. 1-51.
  • Gujarati, D. N. 2004, Basic Econometrics, Fourth Edition, The McGraw-Hill Companies, USA.
  • Jayathileke, P.M.B. ve Rathnayake, R.M.K.T. 2013, “Testing the Link between Inflation and Economic Growth: Evidence from Asia”, Modern Economy, Vol. 4, pp. 87-92.
  • Kaldor, N. 1957, “A Model of Economic Growth”, The Economic Journal, Vol. 67, No. 268, pp. 591-624.
  • Karaca, O. 2003, “Türkiye’deki Enflasyon – Büyüme İlişkisi: Zaman Serisi Analizi”, Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, Cilt:4, No. 2, ss. 247-255.
  • Karaçor, Z., Şaylan, Ş. ve Üçler, G. 2009, “Türkiye Ekonomisinde Enflasyon ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi Üzerine Eşbütünleşme ve Nedensellik Analizi (1990 – 2005)”, Niğde Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, Cilt: 2, Sayı: 2, ss. 60-74.
  • Karaçor, Z., Özer, H. Ve Saraç, T.B. 2011, “Enflasyon ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Uygulama (1988-2007)”, Niğde Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, Cilt: 4, Sayı: 2, ss. 29-44.
  • Khan, M.S. ve Senhadji, A.S. 2001, “Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth”, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 48, No. 1, pp. 1-21.
  • Kirmanoğlu, H. 2001, “Is There Inflation-Growth Tradeoff in the Turkish Economy?”, CEA 35th. Annual Meeting McGill University, Montreal, May31-June3, pp.1-13.
  • Lucas, R.E. 1988, “On The Mechanics of Economic Development”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 22 (1), pp. 3-42.
  • Mallik, G. ve Chowdhury, A. 2001, “Inflation and Economic Growth: Evidence From Four Asian Countries”, Asia-Pacific Development Journal, vol. 8, No. 1, pp. 123-135.
  • Mubarik, Y. A. 2005, “Inflation and Growth: An Estimate of the Threshold Level of Inflation in Pakistan”, SBP-Research Bulletin, Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 35-44.
  • Mundell, R.A. 1965, “Growth, Stability, and Inflationary Finance”, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 73, No. 2, pp. 97-109.
  • Omay, T. 2008, “Enflasyon ve Büyüme Belirsizliklerinin Enflasyon ve Büyüme İle Olan İlişkileri: Türkiye Örneği”, Çankaya Üniversitesi Fen-Edebiyat Fakültesi Journal of Arts and Sciences, Sayı: 10, ss. 81-108.
  • Özgen, F.B. ve Güloğlu, B. 2004, “Türkiye’de İç Borçların İktisadi Etkilerinin VAR Tekniğiyle Analizi”, METU Studies in Development, Sayı: 31, ss. 93-115.
  • Phillips, P. C. B. , and Ouliaris, S. 1990, Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration, Econometrica, Vol. 58, No. 1 (Jan., 1990), pp. 165-193
  • Romer, P.M. 1986, “Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth”, The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 94, No. 5, Oct, pp. 1002-1037.
  • Samuelson, P.A. Ve Solow, R.M. 1960, “Analytical Aspects of Anti-Inflation Policy”, The American Economic Review, Vol. 50, No. 2, pp. 177-194.
  • Sarel, M. 1996, “Nonlinear Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth”, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 43, No. 1.
  • Sidrauski, M. 1967a, “Rational Choice and Patterns of Growth in a Monetary Economy”, The American Economic Review, Vol. 57, Issue 2, pp. 534-544.
  • Sidrauski, M. 1967b, “Inflation and Economic Growth”, The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 75, No. 6, pp. 796-810.
  • Sims, C. A. 1972, “Money, Income, and Causality”, American Economic Review, Vol. 62, pp. 540-552.
  • Solow, R.B. 1956, “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 70, No. 1, Feb., pp. 65-94.
  • Süleymanov, E. ve Nadirov, O. 2014, “Türkiye Örneğinde Enflasyonla Ekonomik Büyüme Arasında İlişki”, Journal of Qafqaz University Economics and administration, Vol. 2, No. 2, pp. 119-125.
  • Terzi, H. 2004, “Türkiye’de Enflasyon ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi (1924-2002)”, Gazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, Cilt: 6, Sayı:3, ss. 59-75.
  • Tobin, J. 1965, “Money and Economic Growth”, Econometrica, Vol. 33, Issue 4, pp. 671-684.
  • Tun Wai, U. 1959, “The Relation between Inflation and Economic Development: A Statistical Inductive Study”, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 7, No. 2, pp. 302-317.
  • Turhan, S.E. 2007, “Enflasyon ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Yayımlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Dnş: Sami Taban.
  • Türkekul, B. 2007, “Türkiye’de Enflasyon-Büyüme İlişkisi: Tarım Sektörü İtibariyle Ekonometrik Analiz”, Ege Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi, Cilt: 44, Sayı: 1, ss. 163-175.
  • Uysal, D., Mucuk, M. ve Alptekin, V. 2008, “Türkiye Ekonomisinde Vektör Otoregresif Model ile Enflasyon – Büyüme İlişkisinin Analizi”, ZKÜ Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Cilt: 4, Sayı:8, ss. 57-71.
  • Yurdakul, F.A. 1999, “Hendry ve Sims Yöntemlerinin Teorik Olarak Karşılaştırılması”, Gazi Üniversitesi Ekonomik Yaklaşım Dergisi, Cilt: 10, Sayı: 33, pp. 84-91.

ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INFLATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY

Year 2016, , 180 - 191, 30.09.2016

Aylin Idikut Ozpence

https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2016321986

Abstract



The link between
inflation (CPI) and economic growth (Real GDP) is the one of the main issues of
macroeconomics. Many theoretical and empirical studies has discussed this
topic. Therefore, this relationship in the economics literature investigate
with different countries, period and empirical studies. There is no consensus
on this relationship in empirical evidences. The main purpose of this study is
to determine whether there is a causal relationship between inflation and
economic growth in Turkey’s economy between the period 2003:1-2015:4. To
analyze this relationship we used Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) and
Granger causality test. Our findings indicate that there is one-directional causal
link from economic growth to inflation. With this aspect of study is
distinguished from conducted other studies for Turkey. Especially, within this
period 2002 Emergency Action Plan which was put into practice after 2001
economic crisis and the contraction in the world economy caused a
domestic-demand-based economic growth in Turkey. Hence, our findings are in
accordance with these economic circumstances.




Keywords

Inflation Economic Growth Turkey Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR)

References

  • Ahmed, S. ve Mortaza, Md.G. 2005, “Inflation and Economic Growth in Bangladesh: 1981 -2005”, Policy Analysis Unit Working Paper Series, WP0604, pp. 1-22.
  • Akgül, I. ve Özdemir, S. 2012, “Enflasyon Eşiği ve Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi”, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans, Vol. 27, No. 313, ss. 85-106.
  • Akyazı, H. ve Ekinci, A. 2009, “Enflasyon Hedeflemesi, Büyüme ve Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası”, Bankacılar Dergisi, Sayı: 68, ss. 3-19.
  • Artan, S. 2008, “Türkiye’de Enflasyon, Enflasyon Belirsizliği ve Büyüme”, International Journal of Economic and Administrative Studies, Vol. 1, No. 1, ss. 113-138.
  • Barro, R.J. ve Sala-i-Martin, X. 1992, “Public Finance in Models of Economic Growth”, The Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 59, Issue 4, Oct., pp. 645-661.
  • Barro, R.J. 1995, “Inflation and Economic Growth”, NBER Working Paper 5326.
  • Baumol, W. J. 1958, “Price Behavior, Stability, and Growth”, The Relationship of Prices to Economic Stability and Growth, Joint Committee Print.
  • Berber, M. ve Artan, S. 2004, “Enflasyon ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, Turkish Economic Association Discussion Paper 2004/21.
  • Borrero, A. M. 2001, “On the Long and Short of Central Bank Indepence, Policy Coordination, and Economic Performance”, IMF Working Paper, WP/01/19, pp. 1-25.
  • Bozkurt, C. 2014, “Money, Inflation and Growth Relationship: The Turkish Case”, International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Vol. 4, No. 2, pp. 309-322.
  • Bruno, M. ve Easterly, W. 1998, “Inflation Crises and Long-Run Growth”, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 41, pp. 3-26.
  • Dıckey, D.A. ve Fuller, W.A. 1979, “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Journal of The American Statiscal Association, No. 74, pp. 427-431.
  • Domar, E. D. 1946, “Capital Expansion, Rate of Growth, and Employment”, Econometrica, Vol. 14, No. 2, pp. 137-147.
  • Harrod, R.F. 1939, “An Essay in Dynamic Theory”, The Economic Journal, Vol. 49, No. 193, pp. 14-33.
  • Engle, R. F., and Granger, C. W. J. 1987, "Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation,Estimation and Testing," Econometrica, 55, 251-276.
  • Esmen, Ö.S., Turan, S.A. ve Aksu, H. 2012, “Sınır Testi ile Enflasyon ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkileri: Türkiye Üzerine İncelemeler”, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Cilt: 12, Sayı: 2, ss. 25-40.
  • Faria, J. R. ve Carneiro, F. G. 2001, “Does High Inflation Affect Growth in the Long and Short Run”, Journal of Applied Economics, Vol. 4, No. 1, pp. 89-105.
  • Fischer, S. 1993, “The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth”, NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper No. 4565, pp.1 36.
  • Granger, C. W.J. 1969, “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods”, Econometrica, No. 37, No. 3, pp. 553-56-.
  • Ghosh, A. ve Phillips, S. 1998, “Warning: Inflation May Be Harmful to Your Growth”, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 45, No. 4, pp. 672-710.
  • Gillman, M., Harris, M. ve Matyas, L. 2002, “Inflation and Growth: Some Theory and Evidence”, Berlin: 10th International Conference on Panel Data, http://econpapers.repec.org/cpd/2002/42_Harris_2.pdf.
  • Gillman, M. ve Harris M., 2010, “The Effect of Inflation on Growth, Economics of Transition”, Vol. 18, No. 4, pp. 697-714.
  • Gokal, V. ve Hanif S. 2004, “Relationship Between Inflation and Economic Growth”, Economics Depertmant Reserve Bank of Fiji Working Paper, 2004/4, pp. 1-51.
  • Gujarati, D. N. 2004, Basic Econometrics, Fourth Edition, The McGraw-Hill Companies, USA.
  • Jayathileke, P.M.B. ve Rathnayake, R.M.K.T. 2013, “Testing the Link between Inflation and Economic Growth: Evidence from Asia”, Modern Economy, Vol. 4, pp. 87-92.
  • Kaldor, N. 1957, “A Model of Economic Growth”, The Economic Journal, Vol. 67, No. 268, pp. 591-624.
  • Karaca, O. 2003, “Türkiye’deki Enflasyon – Büyüme İlişkisi: Zaman Serisi Analizi”, Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, Cilt:4, No. 2, ss. 247-255.
  • Karaçor, Z., Şaylan, Ş. ve Üçler, G. 2009, “Türkiye Ekonomisinde Enflasyon ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi Üzerine Eşbütünleşme ve Nedensellik Analizi (1990 – 2005)”, Niğde Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, Cilt: 2, Sayı: 2, ss. 60-74.
  • Karaçor, Z., Özer, H. Ve Saraç, T.B. 2011, “Enflasyon ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Uygulama (1988-2007)”, Niğde Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, Cilt: 4, Sayı: 2, ss. 29-44.
  • Khan, M.S. ve Senhadji, A.S. 2001, “Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth”, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 48, No. 1, pp. 1-21.
  • Kirmanoğlu, H. 2001, “Is There Inflation-Growth Tradeoff in the Turkish Economy?”, CEA 35th. Annual Meeting McGill University, Montreal, May31-June3, pp.1-13.
  • Lucas, R.E. 1988, “On The Mechanics of Economic Development”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 22 (1), pp. 3-42.
  • Mallik, G. ve Chowdhury, A. 2001, “Inflation and Economic Growth: Evidence From Four Asian Countries”, Asia-Pacific Development Journal, vol. 8, No. 1, pp. 123-135.
  • Mubarik, Y. A. 2005, “Inflation and Growth: An Estimate of the Threshold Level of Inflation in Pakistan”, SBP-Research Bulletin, Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 35-44.
  • Mundell, R.A. 1965, “Growth, Stability, and Inflationary Finance”, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 73, No. 2, pp. 97-109.
  • Omay, T. 2008, “Enflasyon ve Büyüme Belirsizliklerinin Enflasyon ve Büyüme İle Olan İlişkileri: Türkiye Örneği”, Çankaya Üniversitesi Fen-Edebiyat Fakültesi Journal of Arts and Sciences, Sayı: 10, ss. 81-108.
  • Özgen, F.B. ve Güloğlu, B. 2004, “Türkiye’de İç Borçların İktisadi Etkilerinin VAR Tekniğiyle Analizi”, METU Studies in Development, Sayı: 31, ss. 93-115.
  • Phillips, P. C. B. , and Ouliaris, S. 1990, Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration, Econometrica, Vol. 58, No. 1 (Jan., 1990), pp. 165-193
  • Romer, P.M. 1986, “Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth”, The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 94, No. 5, Oct, pp. 1002-1037.
  • Samuelson, P.A. Ve Solow, R.M. 1960, “Analytical Aspects of Anti-Inflation Policy”, The American Economic Review, Vol. 50, No. 2, pp. 177-194.
  • Sarel, M. 1996, “Nonlinear Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth”, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 43, No. 1.
  • Sidrauski, M. 1967a, “Rational Choice and Patterns of Growth in a Monetary Economy”, The American Economic Review, Vol. 57, Issue 2, pp. 534-544.
  • Sidrauski, M. 1967b, “Inflation and Economic Growth”, The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 75, No. 6, pp. 796-810.
  • Sims, C. A. 1972, “Money, Income, and Causality”, American Economic Review, Vol. 62, pp. 540-552.
  • Solow, R.B. 1956, “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 70, No. 1, Feb., pp. 65-94.
  • Süleymanov, E. ve Nadirov, O. 2014, “Türkiye Örneğinde Enflasyonla Ekonomik Büyüme Arasında İlişki”, Journal of Qafqaz University Economics and administration, Vol. 2, No. 2, pp. 119-125.
  • Terzi, H. 2004, “Türkiye’de Enflasyon ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi (1924-2002)”, Gazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, Cilt: 6, Sayı:3, ss. 59-75.
  • Tobin, J. 1965, “Money and Economic Growth”, Econometrica, Vol. 33, Issue 4, pp. 671-684.
  • Tun Wai, U. 1959, “The Relation between Inflation and Economic Development: A Statistical Inductive Study”, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 7, No. 2, pp. 302-317.
  • Turhan, S.E. 2007, “Enflasyon ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Yayımlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Dnş: Sami Taban.
  • Türkekul, B. 2007, “Türkiye’de Enflasyon-Büyüme İlişkisi: Tarım Sektörü İtibariyle Ekonometrik Analiz”, Ege Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi, Cilt: 44, Sayı: 1, ss. 163-175.
  • Uysal, D., Mucuk, M. ve Alptekin, V. 2008, “Türkiye Ekonomisinde Vektör Otoregresif Model ile Enflasyon – Büyüme İlişkisinin Analizi”, ZKÜ Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Cilt: 4, Sayı:8, ss. 57-71.
  • Yurdakul, F.A. 1999, “Hendry ve Sims Yöntemlerinin Teorik Olarak Karşılaştırılması”, Gazi Üniversitesi Ekonomik Yaklaşım Dergisi, Cilt: 10, Sayı: 33, pp. 84-91.
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Aylin Idikut Ozpence

Publication Date September 30, 2016
Published in Issue Year 2016

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APA Ozpence, A. I. (2016). ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INFLATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY. Journal of Economics Finance and Accounting, 3(3), 180-191. https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2016321986

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