Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı bireysel emeklilik sisteminde yer alan katılımcıların emeklilik sistemindeki katkılarını değerlendirme aşamasında yaptıkları risk tercihlerinin incelenmesidir. Bu çerçevede katılımcıların risk alma isteklerini etkileyebilecek sosyo-ekonomik etkenler literatürde yer alan bulgular doğrultusunda lojistik regresyon yöntemi kullanarak tespit edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Yapılan analiz sonucunda katılımcıların risk alma isteklerini etkileyen en önemli faktörün, katılımcının sistemde geçirdiği süre olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Katılımcının sistemde kaldığı süre arttıkça katılımcılar daha az riskli varlıklara yönelmektedirler. Ayrıca, erkek, evli, bireysel emeklilik sistemden gönüllü olarak ayrılmayan, eğitim seviyesi ve katkı ödemesi yüksek olan katılımcıların birikimlerini daha fazla riskli yatırım araçlarına yönlendirdikleri görülmektedir. Katılımcılarının yaşlarının model için anlamlı olmadığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Ayrıca, örneklem kontratın durumu (sistemden ayrılma/ayrılmama) ve katılımcının eğitim seviyesi (eğitim seviyesi yüksek/eğitim seviyesi düşük) dikkate alınarak alt gruplara ayrılmış ve analiz alt gruplar için tekrar edilmiştir. Bu analizler sonucunda modelin açıklayıcı gücünün ve değişkenlerin anlamlılık seviyelerinin alt gruplar için farklılık gösterdiği gözlenmiştir. 1.GİRİŞ

Keywords

• Bireysel emeklilik,risk alma davranışı,Türkiye,lojistik regresyon,portföy tercihi

ANALYSIS OF RISK-TAKING BEHAVIOUR OF INDIVIDUAL PENSION SYSTEM PARTICIPANTS: THE CASE OF TURKEY

Abstract

The study aims to analyze the risk-taking behavior of the individual pension system participants. In this context, the socio-economic factors that affect the risk taking behavior of the participants are investigated in accordance with the findings of the related literature by using the logistic regression methodology. According to the findings of the study, the duration of participation was found to be the most influential factor on the risk taking behavior of the individuals. Participants tend to invest in less risky assets as long as they stay in the system. Moreover, the participants who are male, married, do not experience a voluntary withdrawal, have a high level of education and who make higher contributions tend to direct their contributions to more risky assets. The age of the participants were not found as significant on the participant’s risk taking behavior. Moreover, the sample is divided into two according to the status of the contract (withdraw/not withdraw) and the education level of the participants (high education/low education) and the analysis is repeated for the subsamples. According to the findings of the analysis, it is observed that the explanatory power of the models and the significance levels of the coefficients of the independent variables differentiate among the sub groups.

References

1. Antolin, P., Payet, S. ve Yermo, J. (2012). Coverage of Private Pension Systems: Evidence and Policy Options.
2. OECD Working Papers on Finance, Insurance and Private Pensions. 20, 1-36. Arslan-Ayaydin, O. ve Karan, M.B. (2010). Consumer Credit Risk Characteristics: Understanding Income and Expense Differentials. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade. 46(2), 20-37.
3. Bateman, H., Eckert, C., Geweke, J., Louviere, J., Satchell, S. ve Thorp, S. (2014). Financial Competence, Risk
4. Presentation and Retirement Portfolio Preferences. Journal of Pension Economics and Finance. 13(1), 27-61. Bateman, H., Louviere, J., Thorp, S., Islam, T., ve Satchell, S. (2010). Investment Decisions for Retirement Savings.
5. Journal of Consumer Affairs. 44(3), 463-482. Bellante, D. ve Gren, C. A. (2004). Relative Risk Aversion among the Elderly. Review of Financial Economics. 13(3), 269-2
6. Benartzi, S. ve Thaler, R. (2007). Heuristics and Biases in Retirement Savings Behavior. Journal of Economic Perspectives. 21(3), 81-104.
7. Carson, J. M., Dumm, R. E., Halek, M. ve Liebenberg, A. P. (2011). Consumer Financial Decisions and Risk
8. Aversion. Working-Paper, the University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1-36. Clark, G. L. ve Strauss, K. (2008). Individual Pension-Related Risk Propensities: The Effects of Socio-Demographic

9. Characteristics and a Spousal Pension Entitlement on Risk Attitudes. Ageing and Society. 28(6), 847–874. Coleman, S. (2003). Women and Risk: An Analysis of Attitudes and Investment Behavior. Academy of Accounting and Financial Studies Journal. 7(2), 99-122.
10. Coleman, S. (2003b). Risk Tolerance and the Investment Behavior of Black and Hispanic Heads of Household.
11. Financial Counseling and Planning. 14(2), 43-52. Croy, G., Gerrans, P. ve Speelman, C. (2010). The Role and Relevance of Domain Knowledge, Perceptions of
12. Planning Importance and Risk Tolerance in Predicting Savings Intentions. Journal of Economic Psychology. 31(6), 860-8
13. Çokluk, Ö., Şekercioğlu, G. ve Büyüköztürk, Ş. (2012). Sosyal Bilimler için Çok Değişkenli İstatistik SPSS ve LISREL
14. Uygulamaları. Ankara: Pegem Akademi Yayınları. Deaves, R., Theodore Veit, E., Bhandari, G. ve Cheney, J. (2007). The Savings and Investment Decisions of
15. Planners: A Cross-Sectional Study of College Employees. Financial Services Review. 16(2), 107–133. Dulebohn, J. H. ve Murray, B. (2007). Retirement Savings Behavior of Higher Education Employees. Research in
16. Higher Education. 48(5), 545-582. Emeklilik Gözetim Merkezi. www.egm.gov.tr. (Erişim Tarihi:10.02.2015)
17. Erdem, T. (2013). Bireysel Emeklilik Sistemine Yönelik Değişikliklerin Eleştirisi, Türkiye Barolar Birliği Dergisi. 104, 73
18. Frericks, P., Maier, R. ve De Graaf, W. (2007). European Pension Reforms: Individualization, Privatization and Gender Pension Gap. Social Politics: International Studies in Gender, State & Society. 14(2), 212-237.
19. Gerrans, P. ve Clark, G. L. (2013). Pension Plan Participant Choice: Evidence on Defined Benefit and Defined
20. Contribution Preferences. Journal of Pension Economics and Finance. 12(4), 351-378. Grable, J. E. (2000). Financial Risk Tolerance and Additional Factors That Affect Risk Taking in Everyday Money
21. Matters. Journal of Business and Psychology. 14(4), 625-630. Grable, J. E. ve Joo, S. (2004). Environmental and Biopsychosocial Factors Associated With Financial Risk
22. Tolerance. Financial Counseling & Planning. 15(1), 73-82. Grable, J., & Lytton, R. H. (1998). Investor Risk Tolerance: Testing the Efficacy of Demographics as Differentiating and Classifying Factors. Financial Counseling and Planning. 9 (1), 61-70.
23. Hair, J. F., William, C.B., Babin, B. J. ve Anderson, R. E. (2010). Multivariate Data Analysis. Perason Prentice Hall.
24. Hallahan, T. A., Faff, R. W., & McKenzie, M. D. (2004). An Empirical Investigation of Personal Financial Risk
25. Tolerance. Fınancıal Servıces Revıew. 13(1), 57-78. Hanna, S. D. ve Lindamood, S. (2005). Risk Tolerance of Married Couples. Proceedings of the Academy of Financial Services. 1-28.
26. Harrison, G. W., Lau, M. I. ve Rutstrom, E. E. (2007). Estimating Risk Attitudes in Denmark: A Field Experiment.
27. Scandinavian Journal of Economics. 109(2), 341-368. Hawley, C. B. ve Fujii, E. T. (1993). An Empirical Analysis of Preferences for Financial Risk: Further Evidence on the Friedman-Savage Model. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics. 16(2), 197-204.
28. Hershey, D. A. (2004). Psychological Influences on the Retirement Investor. Certified Senior Advisor Journal. 22, 31
29. Hershey, D. A. Mowen, J. C. ve Jacobs-Lawson, J. M. (2003). An Experimental Comparison of Retirement Planning
30. Intervention Seminars. Educational Gerontology. 29(4), 339-359. Hershey, D. A. ve Mowen, J. C. (2000). Psychological Determinants of Financial Preparedness for Retirement. The Gerontologist. 40(6), 687-697.
31. Hershey, D. A., Jacobs-Lawson, J. M., McArdle, J. J. ve Hamagami, A. (2007). Psychological Foundations of
32. Financial Planning for Retirement. Journal of Adult Development. 14(1-2), 26-36. http://www.egm.org.tr/weblink/BESgostergeler.htm, Erişim Tarihi: 10 Şubat 2015.
33. Jacobs-Lawson, J. M. ve Hershey, A. H. (2005). Influence of Future Time Perspective, Financial Knowledge and Financial Risk Tolerance on Retirement Saving Behaviors. Financial Services Review. 14(4), 331-344.
34. Küçüktalasli, Ö., Arslan-Ayaydin, Ö. ve Karan, M. B. (2012). Quality in the Financial Sector from the Perspective of
35. Consumer Credits by Socioeconomic and Demographic Characteristics. Total Quality Management & Business Excellence. 23(11-12), 1453-1463.
36. Lusardi, A. (2008). Household Saving Behavior: The Role of Financial Literacy, Information, and Financial
37. Education Programs. NBER Working Paper, No: 13824, 1-43.
38. Neelakantan, U. (2010). Estimation and Impact of Gender Differences in Risk Tolerance. Economic Inquiry. 48(1), 228-2
39. Neukam, K. A. ve Hershey, D. A. (2003). Financial Inhibition, Financial Activation, and Saving For Retirement.
40. Financial Services Review. 12(1), 19-37. Ng, T. H., Tay, W. Y., Tan, N. L. ve Lim, Y. S. (2011). Influence of Investment Experience and Demographic Factors on Retirement Planning Intention. International Journal of Business & Management. 6(2), 196-203.
41. OECD (2012). OECD Pensions Outlook 2012. France: OECD Publishing.
42. OECD (2014). OECD Pension Markets in Focus. France: OECD Publishing.
43. Özdemir, A. (2008). Yönetim Biliminde İleri Araştırma Yöntemleri ve Uygulamalar. İşletme-Ekonomi Dizisi.
44. İstanbul: Beta Basım Yayın Dağıtım. Padawer, E. A., Jacobs-Lawson, J. M., Hershey, D. A. ve Thomas, D. G. (2007). Demographic Indicators as
45. Predictors of Future Time Perspective. Current Psychology. 26(2), 102-108. Peggs, K. (2000). Which Pension?: Women, Risk and Pension Choice. The Sociological Review. 48(3), 349-364.
46. Stawski, R. S., Hershey, D. A. ve Jacobs-Lawson, J. M. (2007). Goal Clarity and Financial Planning Activities as
47. Determinants of Retirement Savings Contributions. The International Journal of Aging and Human Development. 64(1), 13-32. Sulaiman, E. K. (2012). An Empirical Analysis of Financial Risk Tolerance and Demographic Features of Individual
48. Investors. Procedia Economics and Finance. 2, 109-115. Sunden, A. E. ve Surette, B. J. (1998). Gender Differences in the Allocation of Assets in Retirement Savings Plans.
49. The American Economic Review. 88(2), 207-211. Sung, J. & Hanna, S. (1996). Factors Related to Risk Tolerance. Financial Counseling and Planning. 7, 11-20.
50. Tatlıdil, H. (2002). Uygulamalı Çok Değişken İstatistiksel Analiz. Ankara: Ziraat Matbaacılık.
51. Tchantchane, A. (2009). Categorical Data Modeling: Logistic Regression Software. World Academy of Science.
52. Engineering and Technology. 51, 230-235. Ural, M. ve Adakale, T. (2009). Bireysel Emeklilik Fonlarında Risk Yönetimi ve Riske Maruz Değer Analizi. Ege Akademik Bakış. 9(4), 1463-1483.
53. Usul, H., Bekçi, İ. ve Eroğlu, H., (2002). Bireysel Yatırımcıların Hisse Senedi Edinimine Etki Eden Sosyo-Ekonomik
54. Etkenler. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İktisadi Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 19, 135-150. Watson, J. ve McNaughton, M. (2007). Gender Differences in Risk Aversion and Expected Retirement Benefits.
55. Financial Analysts Journal. 63(4), 52-62. Yaman, O. ve Emir, M. (2012). Bireysel Emeklilik Sisteminin Denetim ve Muhasebe Yapısı. Mali Çözüm Dergisi. 110, 55-70.
56. Yao, R. ve Hanna, S. D. (2005). The Effect of Gender and Marital Status on Financial Risk Tolerance. Journal of
57. Personal Finance. 4(1), 66-85. Yao, R., Sharpe, D. L. ve Wang, F. (2011). Decomposing the Age Effect on Risk Tolerance. The Journal of Socio- Economics. 40(6), 879-887.