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A DIFFERENT APPROACH TO THE RELATION BETWEEN IMPORTS AND INFLATION FOR TURKEY: DUTCH DISEASE ILLUSTRATION

Year 2019, , 159 - 169, 30.09.2019

Rıdvan Karacan Vedat Cengiz , Zisan Yardim Kilickan

https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2019.1114

Abstract

Purpose - The adverse circumstances which have been experienced in Turkey’s economy recently are attributed to different justifications. One of these is the case defined as ‘Dutch Disease’ in literature. Dutch disease is an economic term for the negative consequences that can arise from a spike in the value of a nation’s currency. Within this context, it has been desired to test the validity of ‘Dutch Disease’ in Turkey’s economy for the 2002-2018 period. The case that there is no research which is put forward recently or made with a similar method makes the study different from the others.

Methodology - In the study, it is used the annual data belonging to the variables of Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) and Imports between the years 2003-2018. Empirical analysis has been executed by using SPSS (22) Pearson’s Test technique and Regression Analysis.

Findings- According to the obtained findings, contrary to what is alleged, there is no connection of the adverse circumstances which have been experienced in Turkey’s economy recently to ‘Dutch Disease’.

Conclusion- For the Dutch Disease to be able to occur, the currency used as medium of exchange is required to be convertible. Because the national currencies of the developing countries such as Turkey are not convertible, the national currency appreciates only within the boundaries of the country. The decrease of the production in Turkey is associated with imports not becoming cheaper but on the contrary becoming more expensive.

Keywords

Turkey Dutch disease SPSS Pearson’s test regression analysis

References

  • Adenauer, I., Vagassky, L. (1998). Aid and the Real Exchange Rate: Dutch Disease Effects in African Countries, Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy. 33(4):177-185.
  • Akça, E.E., Bal, H. (2017). International Labor Income and Dutch Disease: A Panel Data Analysis for Selected Countries, Eskişehir Osmangazi University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences. 12(2):49- 64.
  • Akçacı, T., Karaata, A. (2014).The Paradoxical Effect of International Funds in Turkey: Dutch Disease, SESSION, International Conference On Eurasian Economies.
  • Altınok, S., Çetınkaya, M. (2003). Development and Devaluation in Turkey Applications And Results, Selcuk University Journal of Social Sciences Institute. 9, 47-64.
  • Arı, A., Özcan, B. (2012). Dutch Disease: An Application on Developing Countries, Socioeconomics. 2, 153-172.
  • Balaylar, A.N. (2011). The Relationship of Real Manufacturing Industry, Socioeconomics. 2, 137-160.
  • Başoğlu, U. (2000).Financial Liberalization and International Portfolio Investment, Balıkesir University Institute of Social Sciences Journal. 3(4):88-89.
  • Botta, A., Godin, A., Missaglia, M. (2015). Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, and Dutch Disease: The Case of Colombia, Levy Economics Institute Working Paper, 15-853.
  • Brahmbhatt, M., Otaviano, C., Ekaterina, V. (2010). (2019, June 12). Dealing with Dutch Disease, Economic Premise. The World Bank, http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPREMNET/Resources/EP16.pdf retrieved from address.
  • Bursal, M. (2017). SPSS Basic Data Analysis. Ankara: Arı Spreading.
  • Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). (2019, June 12). Inflation Report. https://www.CBTR.gov.tr retrieved from address.
  • Coşkun, M., Taylan, A.S. (2009).Does The Exchange Rates Movements Affect Export And Import Volume? Turkey Case: 1999-2007, Journal of Accounting and Finance. 42, 157-168.
  • Değirmen, S. (2008). Orthodox Economics Policies in Turkey and the IMF: Inflation Reports, Society and Democracy. 2(2): 133–148.
  • Destek, M.A., OKUMUS, I., YILDIRIM, A. (2017). Effects of Dutch Disease on Agricultural Value Added: Findings for Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Bilig. 83, 225-239.
  • Durmuş, H. (2018). Targeting Inflation In Turkey: An Evaluation Of The Implicit And Explicit Inflation Periods, Journal of Social Sciences Institute. 11,181-201.
  • Eğilmez, M. Dutch Disease. (2019, July 19). ttp://www.mahfiegilmez.com/2019/03/hollanda-hastalg-ve-turkiye.html#more
  • Güney, P. Ö., Ceylan, İ. M. (2014). Inflation Targetting: The Case of Turkey, HU Journal of the Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences. 32(1): 143-164.
  • Hyder, Z. and Shah, S. (2004). Exchange Rate PassThrough to Domestic Prices in Pakistan, State Bank of Pakistan Working Paper, 04-5.
  • Fisher, I. (1911). (2019, July 21). The Purchasing Power of Money, its Determination and Relation to Credit, Interest and Crises. The Online Library of Liberty. https://eet.pixel-online.org/files/etranslation/original/Fisher retrieved from address.
  • Karaçor, Z., Gerçeker M. (2012). Real Exchange Rate and Foreign Trade, Sample Of Turkey (2003 -2010), Selcuk University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Journal of Social and Economic Research. No.23: 289-312.
  • Karagöl, V., Erdoğan, M. (2017). Determinants of Current Account Deficit and Current Practices for Public Policy in Turkey's Economy. Ulakbilge. 5(10): 353-381.
  • Kenell, L. (2008). Dutch Disease and Tourism The Case of Thailand, Bachelor diss., Supervisor: Yves Bourdet, Department of Economics, Lund University.
  • Kesbır, M. (2018).2001 State of the Banking Sector in Turkey after the Crisis, Structural Reforms and Developments in Recent Years, Bitlis Eren University Journal of Academic Projection. 3(2):1-19.
  • Kundak, S., Aydoğuş İ. (2018). Analysis of The Turkish Manufacturing Industry’s Dependence on Imports, Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences. 17(1): 252-266.
  • Mercan, M., Göçer, İ. (2014). The Risk of Dutch Disease in the Central Asian Turkish Republics: An Empirical Analysis, H.Ü. Journal of Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences. 32(2): 251-274.
  • Nchor, D., Pavel, K., Strelec, L., Samuel A.D. (2015). The New Oil Sector And The Dutch Disease: The Case Of Ghana, Acta Universitatis Agriculturae Et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, 63(6): 2035-2041. on June 02, 2019 https://doi.org/10.11118/actaun201563062035 retrieved from address.
  • Okur, A. (2015). Economic Stability On The Effects Of Flexible Exchange Rate Policy Followed In Turkey, Management and Economics. 1(2): 43–52.
  • Okutan, Ş. (2015).2000-2014 Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Deficit and the Year of Turkey's Economy, International Journal of Social Sciences and Education Research. 1(4): 1154-1168.
  • Ordu, C. F. (2013). Srelatıonshıp Between Exchange Rates And Foreıgn Trade: Case Of Turkey, PhD diss., University of Adnan Menderes, Graduate School Of Social Sciences, Department Of Economics.
  • Orhan, O. Z., Nergiz, E. (2014). Turkey’s Current Account Deficit Problem and Its Effects on the European Union Accession, İGÜSBD. (1)1: 138-158.
  • Öztürk, S., Usanmaz, D. (2018). In Turkey, Inflation Targeting Strategy Implementation Process Analysis: Sampling Years 2002-2016, Ömer Halisdemir University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences Journal. 11(4): 93-105.
  • Pereira,L.C. B. (2013).The value of the exchange rate and the Dutch Disease, Brazilian Journal of Political Economy. 33(3): 371-387.
  • Ramirez- C.L. R. (1985). Currency Substitution in Argentina, Mexico and Uruguay, IMF Staff Papers, 32-4.
  • Rojas-Suarez, L. (1992). Currency Substitution and Inflation in Peru. IMF Working Paper.92-33.
  • Savastano, A. M. (1996). Dollarization in Latin America: Recent Evidence and Some Policy Issues, IMF Working Paper, 96-4.
  • Seyidoglu, H. (2007). International Economics Theory Policy and Practice, 16th Edition, Istanbul: Güzem Can Publications.
  • Stanford, J. (2012). A Cure for Dutch Disease: Active Sector Strategies for Canada’s Economy, Alternatıve Federal Budget, Sector Development Policy, Technical Paper 1-11.
  • Sungur, O. (2015).In 2000 After Turkey's Economy: Growth, Inflation, Unemployment, Debt and Foreign Trade Developments, Society and Democracy.9, 243-269.
  • Sy, M. and Tabarraei, H. (2018). (2019, Juni 17). Capital inflows and exchange rate in LDCs: The Dutch Disease Problem Revisited, HAL Id: halshs-00574955, https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00574955, retrieved from address.
  • Statistics Canada (2019), Constructing Box And Whisker Plots, https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/edu/power-pouvoir/ch12/5214889-eng.htm retrieved from address.
  • Şimşek, G.(2017). Obstacles In Front Of Human Capital And Human Capital Formation Capital Policy Development Process Of Productive In Turkey, Political Economic Theory. 1(2): 79-117.
  • Taşar, M. O. (2010). Turkey's Transition to Strong Economy Program and Analysis of Macro-Economic Impacts, Nigde University Journal of Business Administration. 3(1): 76-97.
  • Tapşın, G., Karabulut, A.T. (2013). The Causal Relationship Among Real Exchange Rate, Import And Export: The Case Of Turkey, Akdeniz University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences Journal, No.26: 189-204.
  • Taymaz, E., Voyvoda, E., (2015). Towards 2023: Industrial, Structural Transformation and Industrial Policies. Economics Business Finance. 30(350): 25-62.
  • The BMJ, Correlatıon and Regressıon. https://www.bmj.com/about-bmj/resources-readers/publıcatıons/statıstıcs-square-one/11-correlatıon-and-regressıon retrıeved from address.
  • Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK). (2019, June 13). Foreign Trade Statisticshttps, www.tuik.gov.tr retrieved from address.
  • Ünsal, M.E. (2005). International Economics,Theory, Politics and Open Economy Macroeconomics, 1th Edition, Ankara: İmaj Publishing.
  • Uğurlu, E., Saraçoğlu, B. (2010). Inflation Targeting and Inflation Forecasting in Turkey, Dokuz Eylül University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences Journal. 25(2):57-72.
  • Weijermars, R., Luthi, S. M. (2011). Dutch Natural Gas Strategy: Historic Perspective and Challenges Ahead, Netherlands Journal of Geosciences, Geologie en Mijnbouw. 90(1): 3-14.
  • Wicksell, K. (1962). Interest And Prices Geldzins und Guterpreise A Study Of The Causes Regulating The Value Of Money, Translated by R.F. Kahn, Newyork: Printed in The United States Of America By Sentry Press.
  • Yiğit, M. (2001). Dutch Disease, Dumlupinar University Journal of Social Sciences.5, 124-136.

Year 2019, , 159 - 169, 30.09.2019

Rıdvan Karacan Vedat Cengiz , Zisan Yardim Kilickan

https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2019.1114

Abstract

References

  • Adenauer, I., Vagassky, L. (1998). Aid and the Real Exchange Rate: Dutch Disease Effects in African Countries, Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy. 33(4):177-185.
  • Akça, E.E., Bal, H. (2017). International Labor Income and Dutch Disease: A Panel Data Analysis for Selected Countries, Eskişehir Osmangazi University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences. 12(2):49- 64.
  • Akçacı, T., Karaata, A. (2014).The Paradoxical Effect of International Funds in Turkey: Dutch Disease, SESSION, International Conference On Eurasian Economies.
  • Altınok, S., Çetınkaya, M. (2003). Development and Devaluation in Turkey Applications And Results, Selcuk University Journal of Social Sciences Institute. 9, 47-64.
  • Arı, A., Özcan, B. (2012). Dutch Disease: An Application on Developing Countries, Socioeconomics. 2, 153-172.
  • Balaylar, A.N. (2011). The Relationship of Real Manufacturing Industry, Socioeconomics. 2, 137-160.
  • Başoğlu, U. (2000).Financial Liberalization and International Portfolio Investment, Balıkesir University Institute of Social Sciences Journal. 3(4):88-89.
  • Botta, A., Godin, A., Missaglia, M. (2015). Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, and Dutch Disease: The Case of Colombia, Levy Economics Institute Working Paper, 15-853.
  • Brahmbhatt, M., Otaviano, C., Ekaterina, V. (2010). (2019, June 12). Dealing with Dutch Disease, Economic Premise. The World Bank, http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPREMNET/Resources/EP16.pdf retrieved from address.
  • Bursal, M. (2017). SPSS Basic Data Analysis. Ankara: Arı Spreading.
  • Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). (2019, June 12). Inflation Report. https://www.CBTR.gov.tr retrieved from address.
  • Coşkun, M., Taylan, A.S. (2009).Does The Exchange Rates Movements Affect Export And Import Volume? Turkey Case: 1999-2007, Journal of Accounting and Finance. 42, 157-168.
  • Değirmen, S. (2008). Orthodox Economics Policies in Turkey and the IMF: Inflation Reports, Society and Democracy. 2(2): 133–148.
  • Destek, M.A., OKUMUS, I., YILDIRIM, A. (2017). Effects of Dutch Disease on Agricultural Value Added: Findings for Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Bilig. 83, 225-239.
  • Durmuş, H. (2018). Targeting Inflation In Turkey: An Evaluation Of The Implicit And Explicit Inflation Periods, Journal of Social Sciences Institute. 11,181-201.
  • Eğilmez, M. Dutch Disease. (2019, July 19). ttp://www.mahfiegilmez.com/2019/03/hollanda-hastalg-ve-turkiye.html#more
  • Güney, P. Ö., Ceylan, İ. M. (2014). Inflation Targetting: The Case of Turkey, HU Journal of the Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences. 32(1): 143-164.
  • Hyder, Z. and Shah, S. (2004). Exchange Rate PassThrough to Domestic Prices in Pakistan, State Bank of Pakistan Working Paper, 04-5.
  • Fisher, I. (1911). (2019, July 21). The Purchasing Power of Money, its Determination and Relation to Credit, Interest and Crises. The Online Library of Liberty. https://eet.pixel-online.org/files/etranslation/original/Fisher retrieved from address.
  • Karaçor, Z., Gerçeker M. (2012). Real Exchange Rate and Foreign Trade, Sample Of Turkey (2003 -2010), Selcuk University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Journal of Social and Economic Research. No.23: 289-312.
  • Karagöl, V., Erdoğan, M. (2017). Determinants of Current Account Deficit and Current Practices for Public Policy in Turkey's Economy. Ulakbilge. 5(10): 353-381.
  • Kenell, L. (2008). Dutch Disease and Tourism The Case of Thailand, Bachelor diss., Supervisor: Yves Bourdet, Department of Economics, Lund University.
  • Kesbır, M. (2018).2001 State of the Banking Sector in Turkey after the Crisis, Structural Reforms and Developments in Recent Years, Bitlis Eren University Journal of Academic Projection. 3(2):1-19.
  • Kundak, S., Aydoğuş İ. (2018). Analysis of The Turkish Manufacturing Industry’s Dependence on Imports, Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences. 17(1): 252-266.
  • Mercan, M., Göçer, İ. (2014). The Risk of Dutch Disease in the Central Asian Turkish Republics: An Empirical Analysis, H.Ü. Journal of Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences. 32(2): 251-274.
  • Nchor, D., Pavel, K., Strelec, L., Samuel A.D. (2015). The New Oil Sector And The Dutch Disease: The Case Of Ghana, Acta Universitatis Agriculturae Et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, 63(6): 2035-2041. on June 02, 2019 https://doi.org/10.11118/actaun201563062035 retrieved from address.
  • Okur, A. (2015). Economic Stability On The Effects Of Flexible Exchange Rate Policy Followed In Turkey, Management and Economics. 1(2): 43–52.
  • Okutan, Ş. (2015).2000-2014 Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Deficit and the Year of Turkey's Economy, International Journal of Social Sciences and Education Research. 1(4): 1154-1168.
  • Ordu, C. F. (2013). Srelatıonshıp Between Exchange Rates And Foreıgn Trade: Case Of Turkey, PhD diss., University of Adnan Menderes, Graduate School Of Social Sciences, Department Of Economics.
  • Orhan, O. Z., Nergiz, E. (2014). Turkey’s Current Account Deficit Problem and Its Effects on the European Union Accession, İGÜSBD. (1)1: 138-158.
  • Öztürk, S., Usanmaz, D. (2018). In Turkey, Inflation Targeting Strategy Implementation Process Analysis: Sampling Years 2002-2016, Ömer Halisdemir University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences Journal. 11(4): 93-105.
  • Pereira,L.C. B. (2013).The value of the exchange rate and the Dutch Disease, Brazilian Journal of Political Economy. 33(3): 371-387.
  • Ramirez- C.L. R. (1985). Currency Substitution in Argentina, Mexico and Uruguay, IMF Staff Papers, 32-4.
  • Rojas-Suarez, L. (1992). Currency Substitution and Inflation in Peru. IMF Working Paper.92-33.
  • Savastano, A. M. (1996). Dollarization in Latin America: Recent Evidence and Some Policy Issues, IMF Working Paper, 96-4.
  • Seyidoglu, H. (2007). International Economics Theory Policy and Practice, 16th Edition, Istanbul: Güzem Can Publications.
  • Stanford, J. (2012). A Cure for Dutch Disease: Active Sector Strategies for Canada’s Economy, Alternatıve Federal Budget, Sector Development Policy, Technical Paper 1-11.
  • Sungur, O. (2015).In 2000 After Turkey's Economy: Growth, Inflation, Unemployment, Debt and Foreign Trade Developments, Society and Democracy.9, 243-269.
  • Sy, M. and Tabarraei, H. (2018). (2019, Juni 17). Capital inflows and exchange rate in LDCs: The Dutch Disease Problem Revisited, HAL Id: halshs-00574955, https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00574955, retrieved from address.
  • Statistics Canada (2019), Constructing Box And Whisker Plots, https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/edu/power-pouvoir/ch12/5214889-eng.htm retrieved from address.
  • Şimşek, G.(2017). Obstacles In Front Of Human Capital And Human Capital Formation Capital Policy Development Process Of Productive In Turkey, Political Economic Theory. 1(2): 79-117.
  • Taşar, M. O. (2010). Turkey's Transition to Strong Economy Program and Analysis of Macro-Economic Impacts, Nigde University Journal of Business Administration. 3(1): 76-97.
  • Tapşın, G., Karabulut, A.T. (2013). The Causal Relationship Among Real Exchange Rate, Import And Export: The Case Of Turkey, Akdeniz University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences Journal, No.26: 189-204.
  • Taymaz, E., Voyvoda, E., (2015). Towards 2023: Industrial, Structural Transformation and Industrial Policies. Economics Business Finance. 30(350): 25-62.
  • The BMJ, Correlatıon and Regressıon. https://www.bmj.com/about-bmj/resources-readers/publıcatıons/statıstıcs-square-one/11-correlatıon-and-regressıon retrıeved from address.
  • Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK). (2019, June 13). Foreign Trade Statisticshttps, www.tuik.gov.tr retrieved from address.
  • Ünsal, M.E. (2005). International Economics,Theory, Politics and Open Economy Macroeconomics, 1th Edition, Ankara: İmaj Publishing.
  • Uğurlu, E., Saraçoğlu, B. (2010). Inflation Targeting and Inflation Forecasting in Turkey, Dokuz Eylül University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences Journal. 25(2):57-72.
  • Weijermars, R., Luthi, S. M. (2011). Dutch Natural Gas Strategy: Historic Perspective and Challenges Ahead, Netherlands Journal of Geosciences, Geologie en Mijnbouw. 90(1): 3-14.
  • Wicksell, K. (1962). Interest And Prices Geldzins und Guterpreise A Study Of The Causes Regulating The Value Of Money, Translated by R.F. Kahn, Newyork: Printed in The United States Of America By Sentry Press.
  • Yiğit, M. (2001). Dutch Disease, Dumlupinar University Journal of Social Sciences.5, 124-136.
There are 51 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Business Administration
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Rıdvan Karacan This is me 0000-0002-4148-0069

Vedat Cengiz 0000-0001-7010-4380

Zisan Yardim Kilickan This is me 0000-0002-2962-3565

Publication Date September 30, 2019
Published in Issue Year 2019

Cite

APA Karacan, R., Cengiz, V., & Yardim Kilickan, Z. (2019). A DIFFERENT APPROACH TO THE RELATION BETWEEN IMPORTS AND INFLATION FOR TURKEY: DUTCH DISEASE ILLUSTRATION. Journal of Economics Finance and Accounting, 6(3), 159-169. https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2019.1114

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