Öz
Amaç- Bu çalışmanın amacı, küresel politika belirsizliklerinin yeni küresel finansal mimarinin gelişimine olan dönemsel etkilerinin
hesaplanması ve sonuçların teorik olarak tartışılmasıdır.
Yöntem- Çalışmada dinamik katsayıları ve etkileri hesaplayabilmek için Kalman Filtreleme metodu kullanılmıştır. Bağımlı değişken olarak
küresel finansal gelişim endeksi seçilmiş; dünya ticaret politikaları belirsizlik, dünya belirsizlik, küresel ekonomi politikaları belirsizlik ve küresel
jeopolitik risk endeksleri bağımsız değişkenler olarak seçilmiştir.
Bulgular- Elde edilen sonuçlara göre, risk-getiri ilişkisinin teorik çerçevesine uygun olarak belirsizliklerin belirli bir eşik değerde risk noktasına
kadar finansal gelişimi olumlu etkilediği bunun üzerinde ise özellikle siyasal ve iktisadi kriz dönemlerinde finansal gelişimi negatif etkilediği
gözlemlenmiştir.
Sonuç- Sonuç olarak, 2016 sonrası dönemde azalan iktisadi serbestlik ve Covid 19 salgını sebebiyle yavaşlayan finansal gelişme nedeniyle yeni
finansal mimarinin güncellenmesi gerektiği iddiası öne sürülmüştür.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Yeni küresel finansal mimari küresel politika belirsizlikleri Kalman filtreleme
Kaynakça
- Arner W. D.,(2007). Financial stability, economic growth and the role of law. New York, Cambridge University Press, 2007, 66.
- Aytac, E., Timur H., (2014). Measuring uncertainty ın the financial sector. https://www.bis.org/ifc/events/ISI_reg_stats_conf2014/session2_TRpaper.pdf
- Baum C., Caglayan M., Bing Xu, (2017). The ımpact of uncertainty on financial ınstitutions. Boston College Working Papers in Economics, 939,
- Boston College Department of Economics, revised 20 Sep 2018.
- Belke, A., Dubova, I., Osowski, T., (2018). Policy uncertainty and international financial markets: the case of Brexit. Applied Economics, 1-19. 10.1080/00036846.2018.1436152.
- Benati, L., (2014). Economic policy uncertainty and the great recession. Technical Report, University of Bern, Department of Economics 2014.
- Biljanovska N., Grigoli F., Hengge M., (2017). Fear thy neighbor: spillovers from economic policy uncertainty. IMF Working Papers 17/240, International Monetary Fund.
- Binicioğulları, N.,(2014). Yeni küresel finansal mimarinin finansal sistem üzerine etkilerinin analizi: Türkiye örneği. Gazi Üniversitesi Yayımlanmamış Doktora Tezi, Ankara.
- Caldara, D., Matteo, L., Patrick M., Andrea, P., Andrea, R., (2019). Does trade policy uncertainty affect global economic activity?. FEDS Notes. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, September 4, https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2445.
- Cameron, R., Neal, L., (2002). A concise economic history of the world. Oxford, Oxford University Press.
- Dai, Y., Zhang, J.W., Yu, X.Z., Li, X., (2017). Causality between economic policy uncertainty and exchange rate in China with considering quantile differences. Theoretical and Applied Economics, 14(3), 29-38.
- Ferguson, N., (2008). The ascent of money: a financial history of the world. The Penguin Press.
- Fontaine, I., Razafindravaosolonirina, J., Didier, L, (2018). Chinese policy uncertainty shocks and the world macroeconomy: Evidence from STVAR. China Economic Review, 51(C), 1-19.
- Hardouvelis, G.,Karalas, Ge., Karanastasis, D., Samartzis, P., (2018). Economic policy uncertainty, political uncertainty and the Greek economic crisis. SSRN Electronic Journal. 10.2139/ssrn.3155172.
- Hassan, S, Shabi, S., Choudhry, T., (2018). Asymmetry, uncertainty and ınternational trade. No 2018-24, Working Papers, Swansea University,
- School of Management, https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:swn:wpaper:2018-24.
- https://data.imf.org/?sk=F8032E80-B36C-43B1-AC26-493C5B1CD33B, Erişim Tarihi; 24.06.2021
- https://www.policyuncertainty.com/gpr.html, Erişim Tarihi; 24.06.2021
- https://www.policyuncertainty.com/global_monthly.html ,Erişim Tarihi; 24.06.2021
- https://worlduncertaintyindex.com/data/, Erişim Tarihi; 24.06.2021
- https://worlduncertaintyindex.com/data/, Erişim Tarihi; 24.06.2021
- http://financialmarketsjournal.co.za/oldsite/11thedition/printedarticles/internationalreforms.htm, ‘den geliştirilmiştir, Erişim Tarihi; 24.06.2021
- Kang, W.R., Ronald, A., Vespignani, J., (2017). the ımpact of global uncertainty on the global economy, and large developed and developing economies. CAMA Working Paper No. 9/2017. Available at http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2908591
- Krol, R., (2018). Does uncertainty over economic policy harm trade, foreign ınvestment, and prosperity?. SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.3169563.
- Pacces, A., (2010). Uncertainty and the financial crisis. Journal of Financial Transformation. 29, 79-93. 10.2139/ssrn.1564103.
- Peng-F.D., Xiong, X., Wei-Xing, Z., (2019). A global economic policy uncertainty index from principal component analysis. Papers 1907.05049, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2019
- Tonzer, L., Buch, C. M., Buchholz, M., (2015). Uncertainty and international banking. Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113072, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Visco I., (2017). Financial market volatility and global policy uncertainty: a conundrum dinner address by the Governor of the Bank of Italy http://www.iai.it/sites/default/files/visco-dinner_address_170327.pdf
THE ROLE AND IMPORTANCE OF GLOBAL POLICY UNCERTAINTIES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW GLOBAL FINANCIAL ARCHITECTURE
Öz
Purpose- The purpose of this study is to calculate the periodic effects of global policy uncertainties on the development of the new global
financial architecture and to discuss the results theoretically.
Methodology- Kalman Filtering method was used to calculate the dynamic coefficients in the study. Global financial development index,
world trade policies uncertainty, world uncertainty, global economic policies uncertainty and global geopolitical risk indices were selected as
dependent variables.
Findings- According to the results, it is observed that in accordance with the theoretical framework of the risk-return relationship,
uncertainties increase financial development up to the optimal risk point, and above this, it has a negative effect on political and economic
crisis periods.
Conclusion- It has been claimed that the new financial architecture should be updated due to the decline in economic freedom and the
financial development that slowed down due to the Covid 19 outbreak in the post-2016 period.
Anahtar Kelimeler
New global financial architecture global policy uncertainities Kalman filter
Kaynakça
- Arner W. D.,(2007). Financial stability, economic growth and the role of law. New York, Cambridge University Press, 2007, 66.
- Aytac, E., Timur H., (2014). Measuring uncertainty ın the financial sector. https://www.bis.org/ifc/events/ISI_reg_stats_conf2014/session2_TRpaper.pdf
- Baum C., Caglayan M., Bing Xu, (2017). The ımpact of uncertainty on financial ınstitutions. Boston College Working Papers in Economics, 939,
- Boston College Department of Economics, revised 20 Sep 2018.
- Belke, A., Dubova, I., Osowski, T., (2018). Policy uncertainty and international financial markets: the case of Brexit. Applied Economics, 1-19. 10.1080/00036846.2018.1436152.
- Benati, L., (2014). Economic policy uncertainty and the great recession. Technical Report, University of Bern, Department of Economics 2014.
- Biljanovska N., Grigoli F., Hengge M., (2017). Fear thy neighbor: spillovers from economic policy uncertainty. IMF Working Papers 17/240, International Monetary Fund.
- Binicioğulları, N.,(2014). Yeni küresel finansal mimarinin finansal sistem üzerine etkilerinin analizi: Türkiye örneği. Gazi Üniversitesi Yayımlanmamış Doktora Tezi, Ankara.
- Caldara, D., Matteo, L., Patrick M., Andrea, P., Andrea, R., (2019). Does trade policy uncertainty affect global economic activity?. FEDS Notes. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, September 4, https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2445.
- Cameron, R., Neal, L., (2002). A concise economic history of the world. Oxford, Oxford University Press.
- Dai, Y., Zhang, J.W., Yu, X.Z., Li, X., (2017). Causality between economic policy uncertainty and exchange rate in China with considering quantile differences. Theoretical and Applied Economics, 14(3), 29-38.
- Ferguson, N., (2008). The ascent of money: a financial history of the world. The Penguin Press.
- Fontaine, I., Razafindravaosolonirina, J., Didier, L, (2018). Chinese policy uncertainty shocks and the world macroeconomy: Evidence from STVAR. China Economic Review, 51(C), 1-19.
- Hardouvelis, G.,Karalas, Ge., Karanastasis, D., Samartzis, P., (2018). Economic policy uncertainty, political uncertainty and the Greek economic crisis. SSRN Electronic Journal. 10.2139/ssrn.3155172.
- Hassan, S, Shabi, S., Choudhry, T., (2018). Asymmetry, uncertainty and ınternational trade. No 2018-24, Working Papers, Swansea University,
- School of Management, https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:swn:wpaper:2018-24.
- https://data.imf.org/?sk=F8032E80-B36C-43B1-AC26-493C5B1CD33B, Erişim Tarihi; 24.06.2021
- https://www.policyuncertainty.com/gpr.html, Erişim Tarihi; 24.06.2021
- https://www.policyuncertainty.com/global_monthly.html ,Erişim Tarihi; 24.06.2021
- https://worlduncertaintyindex.com/data/, Erişim Tarihi; 24.06.2021
- https://worlduncertaintyindex.com/data/, Erişim Tarihi; 24.06.2021
- http://financialmarketsjournal.co.za/oldsite/11thedition/printedarticles/internationalreforms.htm, ‘den geliştirilmiştir, Erişim Tarihi; 24.06.2021
- Kang, W.R., Ronald, A., Vespignani, J., (2017). the ımpact of global uncertainty on the global economy, and large developed and developing economies. CAMA Working Paper No. 9/2017. Available at http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2908591
- Krol, R., (2018). Does uncertainty over economic policy harm trade, foreign ınvestment, and prosperity?. SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.3169563.
- Pacces, A., (2010). Uncertainty and the financial crisis. Journal of Financial Transformation. 29, 79-93. 10.2139/ssrn.1564103.
- Peng-F.D., Xiong, X., Wei-Xing, Z., (2019). A global economic policy uncertainty index from principal component analysis. Papers 1907.05049, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2019
- Tonzer, L., Buch, C. M., Buchholz, M., (2015). Uncertainty and international banking. Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113072, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Visco I., (2017). Financial market volatility and global policy uncertainty: a conundrum dinner address by the Governor of the Bank of Italy http://www.iai.it/sites/default/files/visco-dinner_address_170327.pdf
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | Türkçe |
|---|---|
| Konular | Finans, İşletme |
| Bölüm | Articles |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 30 Eylül 2021 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2021 Cilt: 8 Sayı: 3 |
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