THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GROWTH AND EXPORTS: WHAT IF THE IMPACT IS NEGATIVE? EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY

Year 2022, Volume: 9 Issue: 3, 104 - 112, 30.09.2022

Ekrem Yılmaz , Fatma Sensoy

https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2022.1619

Abstract

Purpose- The effect of economic growth on exports in Turkey and the direction of the relationship have been determined. The data were
obtained from the World Bank data system and TUIK (Turkish Official Statistics Institute, 2021 data were obtained from here) and annual
data for the period 1961-2021 were used. Analyzed with Auto Regressive Distrubuted Lag Models (ARDL) bounds test approach and
Toda&Yamamoto Causality Test.
Methodology- The data set was created using annual data and analyzed in this way. Then Vector Autoregressive Model-VAR was created.
Then, Toma&Yamamoto causality test and ARDL were applied. In addition, Breusch-Godfrey Autocorrelation LM Test, Breusch-PaganGodfrey Heteroskedasticity Test, unit root test, normality test and CUSUM tests were applied to verify the accuracy of the output.
Findings- It is concluded that there is a long-term relationship between the ARDL Bounds test approach and the variables where economic
growth affects exports negatively in the long run, and a 1% increase in economic growth causes a decrease of 1.18 million dollars in exports
in Turkey. The error correction term, which is calculated export in the long run, shows that the imbalances that may occur in the short run
are corrected in the long run. According to the results of Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis, a causal relationship was found from Growth to
Export.
Conclusion- The aim of this article is to find the causal relationship between Growth and Export in Turkey in the widest possible range and
with the most up-to-date data and to reveal the extent of the causal relationship between them. As a result, although there is a causal
relationship from Growth to Exports, this relationship is negative in the long run. This result has not been included in the Turkish literature
before.

Keywords

Economic growth, exports, VAR, Toda&Yamamoto, causality, ARDL

References

• Acet, H., Eerdoğan, S., & Köksal, M. (2016). İthalat, ihracat ve büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi: Türkiye uygulaması. The Journal of Social Economic Research, 16(31), 145-161.
• Alam, I., & R Quazi (2003). Determinants of capital flight: an econometric case study of Bangladesh. International Review of Applied Economics, 17(1), 85-103.
• Bahmani-Oskooee, M.M., Goswami, G.G. (2003). A disaggregated approach to test the J-curve phenomenon: Japan versus her major trading partners. Journal of Economics and Finance, 27, 102–113 (2003). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02751593
• Berg, H. V., & Lewer, J. J. (2007). International Trade and Economic Growth. New York: Routledge. doi:https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315703282
• Box, G.E.P. and Jenkins, M., 1970, Time Series Analysis Forecasting and Control, Holden Day Inc., San Fransisco
• Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427-431.
• Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1072.
• Giles, J., & Williams, C. L. (2010). Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 9(3), 261-337. doi:doi.org/10.1080/09638190050086177
• Granger, C. W. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica, 37(3), 424-438.
• Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. (2009). Basic Econometrics. New York: McGraw-Hill/Irwin
• Helpman, E., & Krugman, P. (1985). Market Structure and Foreign Trade Increasing Returns, Imperfect Competition, and the International Economy. Cambridge: MIT Press.
• Mandel, M., & Müller, J. (1974). Aims of an export-orıented economıc polıcy. Acta Oeconomica, 13(1), 35-47.
• Narayan, P. K. (2005). The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests. Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979-1990.
• Narayan, P. K., & Smyth, R. (2006). What determines migration flows from low-ıncome to high-ıncome. Contemporary Economic Policy, 24(2), 332-342.
• Özcan, B. ve Özçelebi, O. (2013). İhracata Dayalı Büyüme Hipotezi Türkiye için Geçerli mi?. Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Yönetim ve Ekonomi, 20(1), 1-14.
• Pesaran, M. H., & Pesaran, B. (1997). Working with Microfit 4.0. Oxford University Press.
• Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
• Rebelo, S. (1991). Long-run policy analysis and long-run growth. Journal of Political Economy, 99(3), 500–521. doi:https://doi.org/10.1086/261764
• Sağlam, Y. ve Egeli, H. A. (2015). İhracata dayalı büyüme hipotezi: Türkiye örneği. Dokuz Eylul University Journal of Graduate School of Social Sciences, 17(4), 356-369.
• Sannassee, R. V., Seetanah, B., & Jugessur, J. (2014). Export-led growth hypothesıs: a meta-analysıs. The Journal of Developing Areas, 48(1), 361-385.
• Şimdi, H. ve Şeker, A. (2018). Büyük ihracat pazarları ekonomik büyümeyi etkiliyor mu? Türkiye örneği. Kafkas Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 9(18), 485-499.
• Takım, A. (2010). Türkiye’de GSYİH ile ihracat arasındaki ilişki: granger nedensellik testi. Journal of Graduate School of Social Sciences, 14(2), 315-330.
• Taştan, H. (2010). Türkiye’de ihracat, ithalat ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkilerinin spektral analizi. Ekonomi Bilimleri Dergisi, 2(1), 87-98.
• Temiz, D. (2010). Türkiye’de reel ihracat ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki: 1965-2009 dönemi. Hitit Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 3(1-2), 71-82.
• Toda, H. Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66(1-2), 225-250.
• Yurdakul, F. ve Aydin, M. (2018). Ekonomik büyüme ve dış ticaret arasındaki ilişki: Türkiye üzerine bir uygulama. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, 8(1), 23-36.