Yapay Zekâ Yatırımlarında Spekülatif Balonlar: “Muhteşem Yedi” Teknoloji Hisse Senetlerinin Analizi ve Volatilite Taşma Etkileri

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2, 198 - 220, 24.12.2024

Volkan Eteman

https://doi.org/10.56668/jefr.1574019

Öz

BÇalışmada finans piyasalarında yapay zeka (YZ) teknolojilerine yapılan yatırımların spekülatif balon risklerini kapsamlı bir şekilde analiz edilmektedir. Meta, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Google, Nvidia ve Tesla olmak üzere "Muhteşem Yedili" hisseleri üzerinde bir GSADF testi ve volatilite taşması analizi yapılmıştır. Test sonuçları, özellikle Nvidia ve Tesla hisselerinde önemli balonlar olduğunu ortaya koymakta ve bu balonlar diğer teknoloji hisselerine volatilite yaymaktadır. Nvidia'nın volatilite taşmalarında merkezi bir rol oynaması, YZ yatırımlarında aşırı fiyatlandırmanın sektör genelinde domino etkisi yaratarak küresel piyasalarda ciddi volatiliteye yol açabileceğini göstermektedir. Yatırımcılar portföylerini çeşitlendirmeli ve spekülatif balon risklerine karşı uzun vadeli stratejiler benimsemelidir. Aynı zamanda, politika yapıcılar finansal düzenlemeleri sıkılaştırarak piyasa verimliliğini artırmalıdır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Spekülatif Balonlar, Frekans Bağlantısı, Teknoloji Hisseleri, GSADF Testi

Speculative Bubbles in Artificial Intelligence Investments: Analysis of the “Magnificent Seven” Technology Stocks and Volatility Spillover Effects

Öz

This paper comprehensively analyzes the speculative bubble risks of investments in artificial intelligence (AI) technologies in financial markets. A GSADF test and volatility spillover analysis on the stocks of the so-called “Magnificent Seven,” namely Meta, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Google, Nvidia, and Tesla is conducted. The test results reveal significant bubbles, especially in Nvidia and Tesla stocks, and these bubbles spread volatility to other technology stocks. The fact that Nvidia plays a central role in volatility spillovers suggests that overpricing in AI investments can create a domino effect across the sector, leading to severe volatility in global markets. Investors should diversify portfolios and adopt long-term strategies against speculative bubble risks. At the same time, policymakers should increase market efficiency by tightening financial regulations.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Speculative Bubbles, Frequency Connectedness, Tech Stock, GSADF Test

Kaynakça

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